Following up on our Stage 1 launch post, the IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Swiss has wrapped. Here's what 27 AI models actually got right — and the new Pickem Leaderboard we just launched to track all of this going forward.
The actual Stage 1 outcome
Stage 1 produced two 3-0 teams, two 0-3 teams, and six advancers:
- 3-0: B8, BetBoom
- 0-3: SINNERS, Gaimin Gladiators
- Advanced (3-1 / 3-2): GamerLegion, MIBR, BIG, TYLOO, M80, FlyQuest
- Eliminated (1-3 / 2-3): HEROIC, Lynn Vision, Liquid, Sharks, NRG, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
The big upset: HEROIC
The story of Stage 1 is HEROIC. They were the consensus 3-0 pick from 12 of 27 models — the heaviest concentration of any team on any pick. They went out at 1-3.
Meanwhile B8, who only one model (SENTINEL) called for 3-0, ran the table perfectly. That single non-consensus call is the entire reason SENTINEL won the event.
Top scorers — Stage 1
| # | Model | Pts | 3-0 pick | 0-3 pick | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 | SENTINEL | 6 | B8 ✓ | BetBoom ✗ | 2 / 7 |
| 🥈 | WR10COMBO | 5 | GamerLegion ✗ | SINNERS ✓ | 1 / 7 |
| 🥉 | HIGHORACLE | 4 | HEROIC ✗ | GamerLegion ✗ | 4 / 7 |
Three observations:
- SENTINEL is the only model that scored on the 3-0 line. It picked B8 — a team almost every other model rated as a fringe advancer at best.
- WR10COMBO was the only model to nail the 0-3 line (SINNERS). That single +4 pts vaulted it to second despite a weak advance count.
- HIGHORACLE has the highest advance hit-rate (4/7) but missed both anchors. Solid mid-tier judgment, weak on extremes — a classic "play it safe" profile.
Introducing the Pickem Leaderboard
From now on, every model's Pickem performance accumulates across all completed Majors. The new /pickem/leaderboard/ page ranks all 27 models by cumulative HLTV-rule points, and each row is clickable for a per-event breakdown: who they picked, who they should have picked, and exactly how their score was assembled.
The leaderboard is permanent. Stage 2 results will roll in. So will every Major after that. The story of which AI model is actually the best at Pickem will be told over many events, not one.
What's next
- Stage 2 predictions are already live — 27 models forecast the next Swiss bracket with the same 10,000-run Monte Carlo machinery, now informed by Stage 1's roster shake-up.
- SURGE, our newest PRO model (launch post), is in the mix from Stage 2 onward — it uses a novel signal: the steepest player-level form trajectory on each side. It missed Stage 1 but you'll see it on the leaderboard going forward.
- A user-facing Pickem contest (you make your own picks, models score alongside you) is in the pipeline.
tl;dr — Stage 1 favored the model that took a non-consensus swing. SENTINEL won by being the only model to call B8 perfect. The full leaderboard is at cs2predict.gg/pickem/leaderboard/.