Overview
CS2PREDICT uses multiple independent AI models to predict the outcome of professional CS2 matches. Each model analyzes different aspects of the game — from pure skill ratings to psychological momentum to team chemistry. No single model is perfect, but together they provide a comprehensive view of each matchup.
How predictions are generated
When a new match appears on HLTV, our system automatically:
- Identifies both teams and their current rosters (5 players each)
- Loads player history — recent match stats, ratings, form trends from our database
- Computes 50+ features per match — ELO ratings, momentum, tilt, head-to-head record, roster stability, strength of schedule, and more
- Runs all models — each model outputs a probability (e.g., "Team A has 67% chance to win")
- Displays results — predictions refresh every 5 minutes as new data arrives
Model categories
| ELO family ELO, ELOHQ, ELOFACE, TIER, TIER2, TIER3 | Skill-based ratings. ELO tracks overall team strength. TIER variants focus on top-30 teams where data is richest. ELOFACE adds training activity signals. |
| Form & H2H OPEN, PRO, MAJOR, FORM | Combine HLTV ranking with recent form, head-to-head history, and match format. PRO and MAJOR are tuned for high-stakes events. |
| Psychology MIND, STREAK | Track mental state — tilt from losing streaks, momentum from winning streaks, recovery patterns after losses. |
| Player-based SQUAD, SOS, WR10 | Analyze individual player performance. SQUAD uses per-player ratings. SOS factors in opponent strength. WR10 focuses on win rate against top-10 teams. |
| Ensemble APEX, PHANTOM, ORACLE, EAGLE | Combine multiple signals. ORACLE blends ELO + form + tilt + SOS. EAGLE adds win rate data. These combine multiple signals for higher accuracy. |
What happens after a match
Results are checked every 10 minutes. When a match completes:
- Each model's prediction is scored as correct or incorrect
- ELO ratings update based on the result (winners gain, losers drop)
- Model accuracy on the leaderboard updates in real-time
- All upcoming matches are re-predicted with updated ratings
Prediction tiers
We classify matches into tiers based on team rankings and tournament importance:
- Top — matches between ranked teams at major events. Best prediction accuracy.
- Major — major qualifier and playoff matches.
- Other — lower-tier matches. Shown as schedule only, without predictions, because accuracy drops to ~50%.
Data sources
All data comes from HLTV.org — the authoritative source for professional CS2 statistics. We collect match results, player box scores, team rankings, and tactical profiles (Rating 3.0 radar). Data refreshes every 5 minutes for matches and daily for player profiles.