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Match Prediction Engine
Top models accuracy · top-tier VANGUARD 86.1%    SENTINEL 86.0%    TIER3ELO 82.1%    STRONGHOLD 81.8%    TIERELO 79.7%    ORACLE 76.2%    ELOHQ 75.2%    TIER2ELO 74.1%    PHANTOM 68.3%    WR10 68.2%   
Model of the Week W16 — TIER (77.8%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026

23
Models ranked
373
Predictions
23
Matches
77.8%
Best accuracy
0.2253
Brier Score
0.6434
Log Loss

This week (Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026) we analyzed 23 top-tier CS2 matches across 23 prediction models. TIER dominated with 77.8% accuracy (7/9 correct), ahead of TIER3 at 100.0%. TIER achieved a Brier Score of 0.2253 and Log Loss of 0.6434.

🏆 Model of the Week: TIER

TIER had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 7 out of 9 matches.

🥇
TIER
ELO for top-30 teams

TIER showed excellent performance with 77.8% accuracy across 9 predictions (7 correct, 2 wrong).

77.8%
Accuracy
9
Predictions
7
Correct
2
Wrong
Weekly breakdown
W15: 77.8% (9)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

RankModelAccuracyPredictionsCorrectWrong
#1TRIBUNAL100.0%550
#2TIER3100.0%440
#3TIER77.8%972
#4HIGH-ORACLE75.0%431
#5SOS73.7%19145
#6FORM68.4%19136
#7ORACLE66.7%18126
#8OPEN64.7%17116
#9WR1064.7%17116
#10STREAK64.3%1495
#11MIND63.6%22148
#12TIER263.6%1174
#13ELOHQ61.5%1385
#14ELO60.0%20128
#15XGPRO57.9%19118
#16MAJOR57.9%19118
#17PHANTOM55.6%18108
#18ELOFACE55.6%18108
#19WR10P55.0%20119
#20APEX52.4%211110
#21WR10C50.0%221111
#22SQUAD47.8%231112
#23EAGLE47.6%211011

🎮 TIER Predictions This Week

7/9 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCHPREDICTIONRESULT
3DMAX 0-2 The MongolZ54% The MongolCORRECT
FUT 2-0 The MongolZ52% The MongolWRONG
3DMAX 0-2 Astralis52% AstralisCORRECT
FUT 2-0 B852% FUTCORRECT
Astralis 2-1 EYEBALLERS55% AstralisCORRECT
MIBR 1-2 3DMAX52% 3DMAXCORRECT
PARIVISION 2-0 Wildcard57% PARIVISIONCORRECT
PARIVISION 0-2 3DMAX53% PARIVISIONWRONG
The MongolZ 2-0 Wildcard57% The MongolCORRECT
Model of the Week W16 — TRIBUNAL (100.0%)
2 New Consensus Models: NEXUS & TRIBUNAL
How Match Predictions & Payouts Work
Model of the Week W15 — ORACLE (83.3%)
How to Use Match Predictions
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