Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 40 · Sep 21 – Sep 27, 2026

This week (Week 40 · Sep 21 – Sep 27, 2026) we analyzed 25 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. TIER dominated with 62.5% accuracy (5/8 correct), ahead of TIER3 at 60.0%. TIER achieved a Brier Score of 0.2493 and Log Loss of 0.6918.

🏆 Model of the Week: TIER

TIER edged out the competition this week, though accuracy across all models was moderate.

🥇

TIER

ELO for top-30 teams

TIER showed decent performance with 62.5% accuracy across 8 predictions (5 correct, 3 wrong).

62.5%

Accuracy

8

Predictions

5

Correct

3

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W39: 62.5% (8)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER	62.5%	8	5	3
#2	TIER3	60.0%	5	3	2
#3	PHANTOM	58.3%	24	14	10
#4	TIER2	57.1%	7	4	3
#5	SQUAD	55.0%	20	11	9
#6	APEX	54.2%	24	13	11
#7	EAGLE	52.0%	25	13	12
#8	SURGE	50.0%	22	11	11
#9	STRONGHOLD	50.0%	4	2	2
#10	ORACLE	45.8%	24	11	13
#11	HIGH-ORACLE	45.5%	11	5	6
#12	FORM	43.5%	23	10	13
#13	WR10C	43.5%	23	10	13
#14	ELOFACE	40.9%	22	9	13
#15	ELO	40.9%	22	9	13
#16	SOS	40.0%	20	8	12
#17	NEXUS	40.0%	10	4	6
#18	VANGUARD	40.0%	5	2	3
#19	OPEN	38.1%	21	8	13
#20	ELOHQ	35.7%	14	5	9
#21	XGPRO	33.3%	21	7	14
#22	MAJOR	33.3%	21	7	14
#23	WR10P	33.3%	15	5	10
#24	TRIBUNAL	33.3%	6	2	4
#25	MIND	20.0%	20	4	16
#26	WR10	16.7%	12	2	10
#27	STREAK	16.7%	12	2	10