CS2PREDICT — How CS2PREDICT Works

Overview

CS2PREDICT uses multiple independent AI models to predict the outcome of professional CS2 matches. Each model analyzes different aspects of the game — from pure skill ratings to psychological momentum to team chemistry. No single model is perfect, but together they provide a comprehensive view of each matchup.

How predictions are generated

When a new match appears on HLTV, our system automatically:

Identifies both teams and their current rosters (5 players each)
Loads player history — recent match stats, ratings, form trends from our database
Computes 50+ features per match — ELO ratings, momentum, tilt, head-to-head record, roster stability, strength of schedule, and more
Runs all models — each model outputs a probability (e.g., "Team A has 67% chance to win")
Displays results — predictions refresh every 5 minutes as new data arrives

Model categories

ELO family ELO, ELOHQ, ELOFACE, TIER, TIER2, TIER3	Skill-based ratings. ELO tracks overall team strength. TIER variants focus on top-30 teams where data is richest. ELOFACE adds training activity signals.
Form & H2H OPEN, PRO, MAJOR, FORM	Combine HLTV ranking with recent form, head-to-head history, and match format. PRO and MAJOR are tuned for high-stakes events.
Psychology MIND, STREAK	Track mental state — tilt from losing streaks, momentum from winning streaks, recovery patterns after losses.
Player-based SQUAD, SOS, WR10	Analyze individual player performance. SQUAD uses per-player ratings. SOS factors in opponent strength. WR10 focuses on win rate against top-10 teams.
Ensemble APEX, PHANTOM, ORACLE, EAGLE	Combine multiple signals. ORACLE blends ELO + form + tilt + SOS. EAGLE adds win rate data. These combine multiple signals for higher accuracy.

What happens after a match

Results are checked every 10 minutes. When a match completes:

Each model's prediction is scored as correct or incorrect
ELO ratings update based on the result (winners gain, losers drop)
Model accuracy on the leaderboard updates in real-time
All upcoming matches are re-predicted with updated ratings

Prediction tiers

We classify matches into tiers based on team rankings and tournament importance:

Top — matches between ranked teams at major events. Best prediction accuracy.
Major — major qualifier and playoff matches.
Other — lower-tier matches. Shown as schedule only, without predictions, because accuracy drops to ~50%.

Data sources

All data comes from HLTV.org — the authoritative source for professional CS2 statistics. We collect match results, player box scores, team rankings, and tactical profiles (Rating 3.0 radar). Data refreshes every 5 minutes for matches and daily for player profiles.

CS2PREDCT.gg