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Match Prediction Engine
Top models accuracy · top-tier TRIBUNAL 87.1%    STRONGHOLD 86.4%    VANGUARD 86.1%    SENTINEL 85.2%    NEXUS 84.1%    TIER3ELO 82.8%    TIERELO 81.1%    TIER2ELO 77.9%    HIGHORACLE 77.3%    ELOHQ 76.6%   
Last refresh: 2026-05-19 00:00 UTC · Next:
Completed
PGL Astana 2026 Quarterfinal · Live · 05:00 · 2026-05-15 · TOP · HLTV →
Model Consensus based on 13 models
No consensus
Models disagree or confidence is below threshold
Prediction Pool · $188.33
3%
97%
MOUZ: $5.93 (1) · x31.76 Aurora: $182.40 (4) · x1.03
Predictions on this match · 5 latest
k1to
May 14, 23:19
MOUZ
$5.93
+$188.33
won
Emy
May 14, 23:09
Aurora
$30.80
lost
Forester
May 14, 05:09
Aurora
$4.43
lost
d1maje
May 13, 12:29
Aurora
$119.16
lost
tier0_s
May 13, 12:24
Aurora
$28.01
lost
Model Predictions (13)
SQUAD
Player ratings
80.9%
win probability
Aurora
61.1%
accuracy
WR10C
Win rate top-10 + ELO + form
69.1%
win probability
MOUZ
63.5%
accuracy
PHANTOM
ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)
67.9%
win probability
MOUZ
67.7%
accuracy
APEX
ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)
66.9%
win probability
MOUZ
68.2%
accuracy
EAGLE
Rank + ELO + ELOHQ + Form + WinRate
64.5%
win probability
MOUZ
57.1%
accuracy
ELO
Team ELO rating
61.0%
win probability
MOUZ
66.6%
accuracy
WR10P
Pure win rate vs top-10
60.6%
win probability
MOUZ
52.0%
accuracy
ELOFACE
ELO + training activity
57.2%
win probability
MOUZ
67.2%
accuracy
FORM
Win rate last 10 matches
55.0%
win probability
Aurora
53.8%
accuracy
WR10
Rank + H2H + win rate vs top-10
54.1%
win probability
MOUZ
67.9%
accuracy
MIND
Psychology + tilt + H2H
53.3%
win probability
Aurora
48.0%
accuracy
OPEN
Rank + form + head-to-head
52.9%
win probability
Aurora
63.3%
accuracy
SOS
Rank + form + opponent strength
52.5%
win probability
Aurora
66.7%
accuracy
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