SURGE

Best-improving player K-D trajectory across team starters

90.2%

win probability

Astralis

52.0%

accuracy

✓

SQUAD

Player ratings

89.1%

win probability

Astralis

60.4%

accuracy

✓

WR10C

Win rate top-10 + ELO + form

81.6%

win probability

Astralis

62.1%

accuracy

✓

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

80.0%

win probability

Astralis

73.6%

accuracy

✓

ELO

Team ELO rating

78.3%

win probability

Astralis

64.8%

accuracy

✓

FORM

Win rate last 10 matches

73.1%

win probability

Astralis

54.6%

accuracy

✓

ELOFACE

ELO + training activity

69.7%

win probability

Astralis

65.3%

accuracy

✓

EAGLE

Rank + ELO + ELOHQ + Form + WinRate

67.7%

win probability

Sashi

61.9%

accuracy

✕

OPEN

Rank + form + head-to-head

63.6%

win probability

Astralis

57.3%

accuracy

✓

SOS

Rank + form + opponent strength

59.3%

win probability

Astralis

63.5%

accuracy

✓

ELOHQ

High-confidence ELO

58.1%

win probability

Astralis

70.6%

accuracy

✓

MIND

Psychology + tilt + H2H

58.0%

win probability

Astralis

49.8%

accuracy

✓

APEX

ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)

56.8%

win probability

Astralis

65.3%

accuracy

✓

MAJOR

Rank + H2H + Form for major events

55.5%

win probability

Sashi

58.1%

accuracy

✕

XGPRO

Rank + H2H for top matches

55.0%

win probability

Sashi

57.8%

accuracy

✕

PHANTOM

ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)

55.0%

win probability

Sashi

65.8%

accuracy

✕

WR10

Rank + H2H + win rate vs top-10

54.5%

win probability

Sashi

57.5%

accuracy

✕

TIER2

Top-teams ELO v2

53.3%

win probability

Astralis

69.4%

accuracy

✓

TIER

ELO for top-30 teams

52.9%

win probability

Astralis

70.5%

accuracy

✓

STREAK

Rank + H2H + win/loss streak

52.1%

win probability

Astralis

58.9%

accuracy

✓

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

52.1%

win probability

Astralis

73.9%

accuracy

✓