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Match Prediction Engine
Top models accuracy · top-tier SENTINEL 80.6%    VANGUARD 77.6%    STRONGHOLD 76.9%    TIER3ELO 75.8%    TRIBUNAL 74.9%    NEXUS 73.3%    ELOHQ 72.5%    TIERELO 72.5%    HIGHORACLE 72.2%    TIER2ELO 71.1%   
Last refresh: 2026-10-01 01:59 UTC · Next:
Completed
Stake Pulse Beat IISemifinal · Live · 10:00 · 2026-09-26 · TOP · HLTV →
Model Consensus based on 17 models
Astralis
57.1%
38%
62%
100 Thieves: $1.24 (1) · x2.61 Pool $3.24 Astralis: $2.00 (2) · x1.62
Predictions locked — match finished
Predictions on this match · 3 latest
xelex
Sep 25, 17:33
Astralis
$1.00
lost
Stx
Sep 25, 17:09
Astralis
$1.00
lost
seberya
Sep 25, 16:52
100 Thieves
$1.24
+$3.24
won
Model Predictions (17)
HIGH-ORACLE
Oracle filtered to high confidence only (>67%)
67.2%
win probability
Astralis
72.2%
accuracy
✕
APEX
ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)
66.5%
win probability
Astralis
66.5%
accuracy
✕
SQUAD
Player ratings
66.5%
win probability
Astralis
60.1%
accuracy
✕
NEXUS
APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction
65.9%
win probability
Astralis
73.3%
accuracy
✕
ORACLE
ELO + ELOHQ + Form + Tilt + SOS
65.4%
win probability
Astralis
67.2%
accuracy
✕
EAGLE
Rank + ELO + ELOHQ + Form + WinRate
63.3%
win probability
Astralis
63.4%
accuracy
✕
WR10P
Pure win rate vs top-10
62.2%
win probability
100 Thieves
51.6%
accuracy
✓
SURGE
Best-improving player K-D trajectory across team starters
61.8%
win probability
100 Thieves
52.0%
accuracy
✓
SENTINEL
Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction
61.5%
win probability
Astralis
80.6%
accuracy
✕
SOS
Rank + form + opponent strength
60.9%
win probability
Astralis
64.4%
accuracy
✕
WR10C
Win rate top-10 + ELO + form
60.9%
win probability
100 Thieves
62.9%
accuracy
✓
PHANTOM
ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)
59.9%
win probability
Astralis
66.6%
accuracy
✕
MAJOR
Rank + H2H + Form for major events
55.5%
win probability
Astralis
58.9%
accuracy
✕
XGPRO
Rank + H2H for top matches
55.0%
win probability
Astralis
58.7%
accuracy
✕
FORM
Win rate last 10 matches
55.0%
win probability
100 Thieves
54.9%
accuracy
✓
STREAK
Rank + H2H + win/loss streak
53.8%
win probability
Astralis
59.2%
accuracy
✕
MIND
Psychology + tilt + H2H
53.7%
win probability
Astralis
48.8%
accuracy
✕
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