What does 65% mean?
When a model predicts Team A at 65%, it means that in similar situations historically, Team A won about 65 out of 100 times. It's not a guarantee — it's a probability based on patterns the model has learned.
High confidence vs low confidence
80%+ — The model is very confident. One team has a clear advantage in skill, form, or matchup. These predictions are correct about 75-85% of the time.
60-70% — Moderate confidence. The favored team has an edge but upsets happen regularly. About 65% accuracy.
50-55% — Coin flip. The model sees no clear advantage. We hide these predictions (shown as 50/50) because they carry no useful signal.
Multiple models disagree — what now?
If ELO says 70% Team A but MIND says 60% Team B, the matchup is genuinely uncertain. Different models weigh different factors:
- ELO models — pure skill rating based on past results
- MIND — psychological factors (tilt, momentum, recovery)
- SQUAD — individual player form and chemistry
- SOS — strength of schedule (who they've beaten recently)
When models disagree, the match is likely to be close.
Why we only predict Top & Major tier
Our models achieve strong accuracy on top-tier matches where we have rich data about both teams. For lower-tier matches with unknown teams, predictions drop to ~50% — no better than a coin flip. We only show predictions where they add real value.