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analysis Oct 05, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W40 → W41, 2026 — STREAK (77.8%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 41 · Sep 28 – Oct 04, 2026

Models ranked

763

Predictions

Matches

77.8%

Best accuracy

0.2273

Brier Score

0.6474

Log Loss

This week (Week 41 · Sep 28 – Oct 04, 2026) we analyzed 40 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. STREAK dominated with 77.8% accuracy (14/18 correct), ahead of TIER3 at 75.0%. STREAK achieved a Brier Score of 0.2273 and Log Loss of 0.6474.

🏆 Model of the Week: STREAK

STREAK had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 14 out of 18 matches.

🥇

STREAK

Rank + H2H + win/loss streak

STREAK showed excellent performance with 77.8% accuracy across 18 predictions (14 correct, 4 wrong).

77.8%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W40: 77.8% (18)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STREAK	77.8%	18	14	4
#2	TIER3	75.0%	20	15	5
#3	STRONGHOLD	73.3%	15	11	4
#4	MIND	71.0%	31	22	9
#5	SQUAD	70.6%	34	24	10
#6	PHANTOM	70.3%	37	26	11
#7	TIER	69.6%	23	16	7
#8	WR10	66.7%	21	14	7
#9	TIER2	65.5%	29	19	10
#10	ELO	64.9%	37	24	13
#11	MAJOR	64.0%	25	16	9
#12	VANGUARD	64.0%	25	16	9
#13	ELOFACE	63.9%	36	23	13
#14	XGPRO	62.5%	24	15	9
#15	ELOHQ	62.1%	29	18	11
#16	OPEN	61.8%	34	21	13
#17	SOS	61.8%	34	21	13
#18	WR10C	61.5%	39	24	15
#19	FORM	60.0%	35	21	14
#20	NEXUS	60.0%	15	9	6
#21	SENTINEL	60.0%	5	3	2
#22	ORACLE	59.5%	37	22	15
#23	APEX	59.0%	39	23	16
#24	HIGH-ORACLE	58.8%	17	10	7
#25	EAGLE	56.8%	37	21	16
#26	TRIBUNAL	55.6%	9	5	4
#27	WR10P	50.0%	28	14	14
#28	SURGE	40.0%	30	12	18

🎮 STREAK Predictions This Week

14/18 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
BetBoom 2-0 M80	55% BetBoom	CORRECT
G2 1-2 1win	55% 1win	CORRECT
Luminosity 1-2 Astralis	57% Astralis	CORRECT
Falcons 2-0 Aurora	55% Aurora	WRONG
9z 2-0 TYLOO	54% 9z	CORRECT
Spirit 2-1 PARIVISION	55% Spirit	CORRECT
MOUZ 2-0 M80	57% MOUZ	CORRECT
MOUZ 2-0 M80	55% MOUZ	CORRECT
Aurora 2-0 9z	55% Aurora	CORRECT
Spirit 2-1 ShindeN	62% Spirit	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 1win	53% Vitality	CORRECT
Astralis 2-1 BIG	52% Astralis	CORRECT
Legacy 1-2 PARIVISION	56% Legacy	WRONG
Legacy 1-2 PARIVISION	56% Legacy	WRONG
Falcons 2-0 TYLOO	54% Falcons	CORRECT
B8 0-2 Luminosity	55% Luminosity	CORRECT
BET-M 0-2 Nemiga	53% Nemiga	CORRECT
magic 0-2 GamerLegion	57% magic	WRONG

analysis Oct 01, 2026 by cs2predict

Top Models September → October 2026 — TIER3 leads at 78.4%

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · October 2026

Models ranked

4352

Total predictions

256

Matches tracked

78.4%

Best accuracy

Based on September 2026 data, we tracked 256 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models with a total of 4352 predictions. The average model accuracy was 59.1%, with a spread of 32.1% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

TIER3 takes the top spot with 78.4% accuracy, followed by VANGUARD at 71.6% and TIER2 at 68.5%.

🥇

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed excellent performance with 78.4% accuracy across 51 predictions (40 correct, 11 wrong). Best week: W40 at 100.0%, weakest: W39 at 60.0%.

78.4%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W36: 83.3% (12)W37: 78.3% (23)W38: 80.0% (10)W39: 60.0% (5)W40: 100.0% (1)

🥈

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed strong performance with 71.6% accuracy across 88 predictions (63 correct, 25 wrong). Best week: W40 at 100.0%, weakest: W39 at 40.0%.

71.6%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W36: 70.8% (24)W37: 74.4% (43)W38: 71.4% (14)W39: 40.0% (5)W40: 100.0% (2)

🥉

TIER2

Top-teams ELO v2

TIER2 showed strong performance with 68.5% accuracy across 92 predictions (63 correct, 29 wrong). Best week: W38 at 76.9%, weakest: W40 at 50.0%.

68.5%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W36: 69.7% (33)W37: 67.6% (37)W38: 76.9% (13)W39: 57.1% (7)W40: 50.0% (2)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER3	78.4%	51	40	11
#2	VANGUARD	71.6%	88	63	25
#3	TIER2	68.5%	92	63	29
#4	TIER	67.8%	87	59	28
#5	ELOHQ	67.5%	157	106	51
#6	HIGH-ORACLE	66.2%	80	53	27
#7	ORACLE	62.8%	239	150	89
#8	ELOFACE	62.4%	221	138	83
#9	NEXUS	62.2%	74	46	28
#10	APEX	62.1%	232	144	88
#11	ELO	61.6%	232	143	89
#12	STRONGHOLD	60.9%	46	28	18
#13	PHANTOM	60.7%	229	139	90
#14	EAGLE	60.3%	224	135	89
#15	SQUAD	60.3%	214	129	85
#16	TRIBUNAL	60.3%	58	35	23
#17	WR10C	58.9%	246	145	101
#18	SOS	57.7%	201	116	85
#19	FORM	57.0%	207	118	89
#20	SURGE	55.9%	213	119	94
#21	OPEN	54.0%	211	114	97
#22	SENTINEL	50.0%	12	6	6
#23	XGPRO	48.6%	185	90	95
#24	MAJOR	48.6%	185	90	95
#25	WR10	48.2%	114	55	59
#26	WR10P	48.1%	135	65	70
#27	MIND	46.5%	198	92	106
#28	STREAK	46.3%	121	56	65

analysis Sep 28, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W39 → W40, 2026 — TIER (62.5%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 40 · Sep 21 – Sep 27, 2026

Models ranked

441

Predictions

Matches

62.5%

Best accuracy

0.2493

Brier Score

0.6918

Log Loss

This week (Week 40 · Sep 21 – Sep 27, 2026) we analyzed 25 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. TIER dominated with 62.5% accuracy (5/8 correct), ahead of TIER3 at 60.0%. TIER achieved a Brier Score of 0.2493 and Log Loss of 0.6918.

🏆 Model of the Week: TIER

TIER edged out the competition this week, though accuracy across all models was moderate.

🥇

TIER

ELO for top-30 teams

TIER showed decent performance with 62.5% accuracy across 8 predictions (5 correct, 3 wrong).

62.5%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W39: 62.5% (8)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER	62.5%	8	5	3
#2	TIER3	60.0%	5	3	2
#3	PHANTOM	58.3%	24	14	10
#4	TIER2	57.1%	7	4	3
#5	SQUAD	55.0%	20	11	9
#6	APEX	54.2%	24	13	11
#7	EAGLE	52.0%	25	13	12
#8	SURGE	50.0%	22	11	11
#9	STRONGHOLD	50.0%	4	2	2
#10	ORACLE	45.8%	24	11	13
#11	HIGH-ORACLE	45.5%	11	5	6
#12	FORM	43.5%	23	10	13
#13	WR10C	43.5%	23	10	13
#14	ELOFACE	40.9%	22	9	13
#15	ELO	40.9%	22	9	13
#16	SOS	40.0%	20	8	12
#17	NEXUS	40.0%	10	4	6
#18	VANGUARD	40.0%	5	2	3
#19	OPEN	38.1%	21	8	13
#20	ELOHQ	35.7%	14	5	9
#21	XGPRO	33.3%	21	7	14
#22	MAJOR	33.3%	21	7	14
#23	WR10P	33.3%	15	5	10
#24	TRIBUNAL	33.3%	6	2	4
#25	MIND	20.0%	20	4	16
#26	WR10	16.7%	12	2	10
#27	STREAK	16.7%	12	2	10

🎮 TIER Predictions This Week

5/8 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
magic 2-1 GamerLegion	52% magic	CORRECT
magic 2-1 EYEBALLERS	52% magic	CORRECT
Ninjas in Pyjamas 2-0 3DMAX	52% 3DMAX	WRONG
Astralis 2-1 Betclic	53% Astralis	CORRECT
B8 0-2 Luminosity	57% B8	WRONG
HEROIC 2-0 BBL	54% HEROIC	CORRECT
Johnny Speeds 2-0 Virtus.pro	53% Virtus.pro	WRONG
Astralis 2-1 Sangal	53% Astralis	CORRECT

analysis Sep 21, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W38 → W39, 2026 — HIGH-ORACLE (80.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 39 · Sep 14 – Sep 20, 2026

Models ranked

536

Predictions

Matches

80.0%

Best accuracy

0.173

Brier Score

0.5375

Log Loss

This week (Week 39 · Sep 14 – Sep 20, 2026) we analyzed 30 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. HIGH-ORACLE dominated with 80.0% accuracy (12/15 correct), ahead of NEXUS at 80.0%. HIGH-ORACLE achieved a Brier Score of 0.173 and Log Loss of 0.5375.

🏆 Model of the Week: HIGH-ORACLE

HIGH-ORACLE had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 12 out of 15 matches.

🥇

HIGH-ORACLE

Oracle filtered to high confidence only (>67%)

HIGH-ORACLE showed excellent performance with 80.0% accuracy across 15 predictions (12 correct, 3 wrong).

80.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W38: 80.0% (15)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	HIGH-ORACLE	80.0%	15	12	3
#2	NEXUS	80.0%	15	12	3
#3	TIER3	80.0%	10	8	2
#4	ELO	77.8%	27	21	6
#5	TIER	76.9%	13	10	3
#6	TIER2	76.9%	13	10	3
#7	ELOFACE	76.0%	25	19	6
#8	ORACLE	74.1%	27	20	7
#9	APEX	71.4%	28	20	8
#10	ELOHQ	71.4%	21	15	6
#11	VANGUARD	71.4%	14	10	4
#12	PHANTOM	69.2%	26	18	8
#13	SQUAD	67.9%	28	19	9
#14	EAGLE	66.7%	24	16	8
#15	SOS	66.7%	24	16	8
#16	SURGE	63.0%	27	17	10
#17	STRONGHOLD	62.5%	8	5	3
#18	WR10C	60.7%	28	17	11
#19	FORM	56.5%	23	13	10
#20	OPEN	52.2%	23	12	11
#21	XGPRO	47.1%	17	8	9
#22	MAJOR	47.1%	17	8	9
#23	MIND	41.7%	24	10	14
#24	TRIBUNAL	40.0%	5	2	3
#25	STREAK	36.4%	11	4	7
#26	WR10	35.3%	17	6	11
#27	WR10P	34.6%	26	9	17

🎮 HIGH-ORACLE Predictions This Week

12/15 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
MIBR 0-2 FURIA	68% FURIA	CORRECT
Aurora 2-1 Vitality	68% Vitality	WRONG
3DMAX 2-1 M80	68% M80	WRONG
MIBR 2-0 NRG	73% MIBR	CORRECT
NRG 0-2 Aurora	72% Aurora	CORRECT
BBL 14-16 3DMAX	73% 3DMAX	CORRECT
Inner Circle 13-6 Liquid	72% Inner Circ	CORRECT
3DMAX 9-13 Inner Circle	74% Inner Circ	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 magic	67% Vitality	CORRECT
M80 13-9 GamerLegion	70% M80	CORRECT
MOUZ 1-2 NRG	82% MOUZ	WRONG
GamerLegion 13-7 Luminosity	71% GamerLegio	CORRECT
B8 13-8 Metizport	70% B8	CORRECT
Imperial 2-1 Bounty Hunters	73% Imperial	CORRECT
paiN 2-0 Turma do Pagode	69% paiN	CORRECT

analysis Sep 14, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W37 → W38, 2026 — TRIBUNAL (79.2%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 38 · Sep 07 – Sep 13, 2026

Models ranked

1789

Predictions

103

Matches

79.2%

Best accuracy

0.2013

Brier Score

0.5943

Log Loss

This week (Week 38 · Sep 07 – Sep 13, 2026) we analyzed 103 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. TRIBUNAL dominated with 79.2% accuracy (19/24 correct), ahead of TIER3 at 78.3%. TRIBUNAL achieved a Brier Score of 0.2013 and Log Loss of 0.5943.

🏆 Model of the Week: TRIBUNAL

TRIBUNAL had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 19 out of 24 matches.

🥇

TRIBUNAL

OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

TRIBUNAL showed excellent performance with 79.2% accuracy across 24 predictions (19 correct, 5 wrong).

79.2%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W37: 79.2% (24)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TRIBUNAL	79.2%	24	19	5
#2	TIER3	78.3%	23	18	5
#3	VANGUARD	74.4%	43	32	11
#4	HIGH-ORACLE	71.4%	35	25	10
#5	TIER	69.7%	33	23	10
#6	STRONGHOLD	69.6%	23	16	7
#7	ELOHQ	68.7%	67	46	21
#8	TIER2	67.6%	37	25	12
#9	NEXUS	63.6%	33	21	12
#10	SOS	63.5%	85	54	31
#11	ORACLE	63.3%	98	62	36
#12	APEX	61.7%	94	58	36
#13	SQUAD	61.6%	86	53	33
#14	PHANTOM	60.0%	95	57	38
#15	EAGLE	59.8%	92	55	37
#16	ELOFACE	57.8%	90	52	38
#17	WR10C	57.0%	100	57	43
#18	ELO	57.0%	93	53	40
#19	FORM	56.8%	81	46	35
#20	OPEN	53.7%	82	44	38
#21	SURGE	52.3%	86	45	41
#22	XGPRO	52.1%	73	38	35
#23	MAJOR	52.1%	73	38	35
#24	WR10	52.0%	50	26	24
#25	MIND	47.0%	83	39	44
#26	WR10P	46.9%	49	23	26
#27	STREAK	44.6%	56	25	31
#28	SENTINEL	40.0%	5	2	3

🎮 TRIBUNAL Predictions This Week

19/24 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
FlyQuest 0-2 DEPO	58% FlyQuest	WRONG
BetBoom 1-2 G2	62% G2	CORRECT
Voca 2-0 Without a Roof	59% Voca	CORRECT
Without a Roof 2-0 Marsborne	58% Marsborne	WRONG
antivalue 0-2 Voca	61% Voca	CORRECT
B8 2-1 Nuclear TigeRES	59% B8	CORRECT
M80 2-1 6666	63% M80	CORRECT
Back to Back 1-2 Fluxo	60% Fluxo	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 100 Thieves	56% 100 Thieve	CORRECT
Villainous 0-2 Without a Roof	57% Without a	CORRECT
SINNERS 1-2 Nemiga	57% Nemiga	CORRECT
Galorys 1-2 Back to Back	61% Galorys	WRONG
3DMAX 1-2 BBL	60% 3DMAX	WRONG
DEPO 2-0 Revenge	58% DEPO	CORRECT
Ninjas in Pyjamas 1-2 Inner Circle	59% Inner Circ	CORRECT
FlyQuest 2-0 Finishers	63% FlyQuest	CORRECT
9z 1-2 G2	57% G2	CORRECT
Liquid 2-0 antivalue	61% Liquid	CORRECT
NRG 2-0 Without a Roof	58% NRG	CORRECT
Voca 2-0 Villainous	62% Voca	CORRECT
Ninjas in Pyjamas 1-2 SINNERS	60% Ninjas in	WRONG
FlyQuest 1-0 LFO 8	62% FlyQuest	CORRECT
FlyQuest 2-0 Devious	62% FlyQuest	CORRECT
TYLOO 2-1 The Huns	59% TYLOO	CORRECT

analysis Sep 07, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W36 → W37, 2026 — TIER3 (85.7%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 37 · Aug 31 – Sep 06, 2026

Models ranked

1553

Predictions

Matches

85.7%

Best accuracy

0.234

Brier Score

0.6611

Log Loss

This week (Week 37 · Aug 31 – Sep 06, 2026) we analyzed 96 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. TIER3 dominated with 85.7% accuracy (12/14 correct), ahead of ELOHQ at 72.7%. TIER3 achieved a Brier Score of 0.234 and Log Loss of 0.6611.

🏆 Model of the Week: TIER3

TIER3 had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 12 out of 14 matches.

🥇

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed excellent performance with 85.7% accuracy across 14 predictions (12 correct, 2 wrong).

85.7%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W36: 85.7% (14)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER3	85.7%	14	12	2
#2	ELOHQ	72.7%	55	40	15
#3	VANGUARD	72.0%	25	18	7
#4	ELOFACE	69.9%	83	58	25
#5	TIER2	69.4%	36	25	11
#6	ELO	67.0%	88	59	29
#7	TIER	64.7%	34	22	12
#8	WR10C	64.5%	93	60	33
#9	APEX	63.1%	84	53	31
#10	ORACLE	62.9%	89	56	33
#11	STREAK	61.9%	42	26	16
#12	EAGLE	61.7%	81	50	31
#13	SURGE	61.0%	77	47	30
#14	WR10P	60.9%	46	28	18
#15	PHANTOM	60.2%	83	50	33
#16	SENTINEL	60.0%	5	3	2
#17	FORM	59.2%	76	45	31
#18	HIGH-ORACLE	57.9%	19	11	8
#19	OPEN	56.8%	81	46	35
#20	SQUAD	56.4%	78	44	34
#21	WR10	56.2%	32	18	14
#22	TRIBUNAL	54.5%	22	12	10
#23	MIND	54.3%	70	38	32
#24	SOS	53.5%	71	38	33
#25	NEXUS	53.3%	15	8	7
#26	XGPRO	50.0%	72	36	36
#27	MAJOR	50.0%	72	36	36
#28	STRONGHOLD	50.0%	10	5	5

🎮 TIER3 Predictions This Week

12/14 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Spirit 3-1 MOUZ	52% Spirit	CORRECT
B8 2-0 Nuclear TigeRES	52% B8	CORRECT
Falcons 2-0 G2	52% Falcons	CORRECT
TYLOO 1-0 FlyQuest	52% TYLOO	CORRECT
K27 0-2 Eternal Fire	53% Eternal Fi	CORRECT
Nuclear TigeRES 2-0 Eternal Fire	53% Eternal Fi	WRONG
TYLOO 1-0 Rare Atom	54% TYLOO	CORRECT
HOTU 2-0 Nemiga	53% HOTU	CORRECT
Color 1-2 B8	52% B8	CORRECT
MIBR 1-2 Eternal Fire	52% Eternal Fi	CORRECT
Rare Atom 2-0 Lynn Vision	53% Lynn Visio	WRONG
HOTU 2-1 Color	52% HOTU	CORRECT
FUT 0-2 Vitality	52% Vitality	CORRECT
Spirit 2-0 FURIA	52% Spirit	CORRECT

analysis Sep 01, 2026 by cs2predict

Top Models August → September 2026 — SENTINEL leads at 100.0%

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · September 2026

Models ranked

3521

Total predictions

213

Matches tracked

100.0%

Best accuracy

Based on August 2026 data, we tracked 213 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models with a total of 3521 predictions. The average model accuracy was 72.2%, with a spread of 54.2% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

SENTINEL takes the top spot with 100.0% accuracy, followed by VANGUARD at 87.1% and NEXUS at 86.1%.

🥇

SENTINEL

Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction

SENTINEL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 17 predictions (17 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W32: 100.0% (13)W33: 100.0% (2)W35: 100.0% (1)W36: 100.0% (1)

🥈

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed excellent performance with 87.1% accuracy across 85 predictions (74 correct, 11 wrong). Best week: W36 at 100.0%, weakest: W31 at 75.0%.

87.1%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W31: 75.0% (4)W32: 97.0% (33)W33: 77.3% (22)W34: 75.0% (8)W35: 88.2% (17)W36: 100.0% (1)

🥉

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 86.1% accuracy across 72 predictions (62 correct, 10 wrong). Best week: W31 at 100.0%, weakest: W36 at 0.0%.

86.1%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W31: 100.0% (2)W32: 96.3% (27)W33: 77.3% (22)W34: 100.0% (6)W35: 78.6% (14)W36: 0.0% (1)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SENTINEL	100.0%	17	17	0
#2	VANGUARD	87.1%	85	74	11
#3	NEXUS	86.1%	72	62	10
#4	HIGH-ORACLE	85.7%	84	72	12
#5	STRONGHOLD	84.1%	44	37	7
#6	TRIBUNAL	83.7%	43	36	7
#7	ELOHQ	83.1%	124	103	21
#8	ORACLE	77.3%	194	150	44
#9	APEX	77.0%	191	147	44
#10	TIER3	76.6%	64	49	15
#11	PHANTOM	76.2%	189	144	45
#12	TIER	76.1%	88	67	21
#13	EAGLE	75.3%	178	134	44
#14	TIER2	75.3%	93	70	23
#15	ELOFACE	74.9%	179	134	45
#16	ELO	74.1%	185	137	48
#17	SOS	73.4%	173	127	46
#18	WR10C	70.4%	196	138	58
#19	STREAK	66.7%	75	50	25
#20	SQUAD	63.8%	185	118	67
#21	XGPRO	63.6%	129	82	47
#22	MAJOR	63.6%	129	82	47
#23	OPEN	59.6%	146	87	59
#24	FORM	57.5%	160	92	68
#25	WR10P	56.2%	105	59	46
#26	WR10	55.6%	90	50	40
#27	SURGE	53.3%	150	80	70
#28	MIND	45.8%	153	70	83

analysis Aug 31, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W35 → W36, 2026 — VANGUARD (88.2%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 36 · Aug 24 – Aug 30, 2026

Models ranked

629

Predictions

Matches

88.2%

Best accuracy

0.1219

Brier Score

0.4143

Log Loss

This week (Week 36 · Aug 24 – Aug 30, 2026) we analyzed 36 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. VANGUARD dominated with 88.2% accuracy (15/17 correct), ahead of ELOHQ at 86.4%. VANGUARD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1219 and Log Loss of 0.4143.

🏆 Model of the Week: VANGUARD

VANGUARD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 15 out of 17 matches.

🥇

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed excellent performance with 88.2% accuracy across 17 predictions (15 correct, 2 wrong).

88.2%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W35: 88.2% (17)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	VANGUARD	88.2%	17	15	2
#2	ELOHQ	86.4%	22	19	3
#3	TIER3	84.2%	19	16	3
#4	TIER2	81.8%	22	18	4
#5	TIER	81.0%	21	17	4
#6	HIGH-ORACLE	80.0%	15	12	3
#7	NEXUS	78.6%	14	11	3
#8	ELO	76.7%	30	23	7
#9	ELOFACE	76.7%	30	23	7
#10	ORACLE	75.8%	33	25	8
#11	APEX	75.0%	32	24	8
#12	EAGLE	75.0%	28	21	7
#13	PHANTOM	72.7%	33	24	9
#14	WR10C	71.9%	32	23	9
#15	STRONGHOLD	71.4%	7	5	2
#16	TRIBUNAL	71.4%	7	5	2
#17	FORM	65.5%	29	19	10
#18	WR10P	65.0%	20	13	7
#19	OPEN	64.3%	28	18	10
#20	SOS	62.1%	29	18	11
#21	SURGE	59.3%	27	16	11
#22	XGPRO	59.1%	22	13	9
#23	MAJOR	59.1%	22	13	9
#24	STREAK	58.8%	17	10	7
#25	MIND	57.7%	26	15	11
#26	SQUAD	53.8%	26	14	12
#27	WR10	52.4%	21	11	10

🎮 VANGUARD Predictions This Week

15/17 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Vitality 2-1 Legacy	74% Vitality	CORRECT
Inner Circle 0-2 FUT	71% FUT	CORRECT
Aurora 2-0 M80	76% Aurora	CORRECT
Legacy 1-2 Falcons	77% Falcons	CORRECT
FUT 2-1 Lynn Vision	79% FUT	CORRECT
Inner Circle 0-2 MOUZ	70% MOUZ	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 9z	73% Vitality	CORRECT
M80 0-2 FURIA	82% FURIA	CORRECT
Natus Vincere 2-0 paiN	80% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
G2 0-2 Spirit	79% Spirit	CORRECT
Aurora 2-0 DENDELE	75% Aurora	CORRECT
Falcons 2-1 Lynn Vision	88% Falcons	CORRECT
Vitality 0-2 Inner Circle	76% Vitality	WRONG
FURIA 2-0 paiN	81% FURIA	CORRECT
Natus Vincere 1-2 M80	82% Natus Vinc	WRONG
Spirit 2-0 DENDELE	87% Spirit	CORRECT
Nuclear TigeRES 16-13 Spirit Academy	67% Nuclear Ti	CORRECT

analysis Aug 24, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W34 → W35, 2026 — NEXUS (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 35 · Aug 17 – Aug 23, 2026

Models ranked

305

Predictions

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0817

Brier Score

0.3333

Log Loss

This week (Week 35 · Aug 17 – Aug 23, 2026) we analyzed 17 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (6/6 correct), ahead of STREAK at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0817 and Log Loss of 0.3333.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 6 out of 6 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 6 predictions (6 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W34: 100.0% (6)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	6	6	0
#2	STREAK	100.0%	6	6	0
#3	HIGH-ORACLE	100.0%	5	5	0
#4	WR10P	93.3%	15	14	1
#5	XGPRO	87.5%	8	7	1
#6	MAJOR	87.5%	8	7	1
#7	WR10	84.6%	13	11	2
#8	ELOHQ	80.0%	10	8	2
#9	ORACLE	78.6%	14	11	3
#10	TIER3	77.8%	9	7	2
#11	SURGE	76.9%	13	10	3
#12	VANGUARD	75.0%	8	6	2
#13	WR10C	70.6%	17	12	5
#14	TIER	70.0%	10	7	3
#15	ELO	68.8%	16	11	5
#16	ELOFACE	68.8%	16	11	5
#17	MIND	66.7%	12	8	4
#18	APEX	62.5%	16	10	6
#19	TIER2	61.5%	13	8	5
#20	OPEN	61.5%	13	8	5
#21	FORM	61.5%	13	8	5
#22	SOS	60.0%	15	9	6
#23	EAGLE	60.0%	15	9	6
#24	PHANTOM	58.8%	17	10	7
#25	SQUAD	41.2%	17	7	10

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

6/6 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
FaZe 0-2 Vitality	81% Vitality	CORRECT
B8 0-2 Spirit	74% Spirit	CORRECT
Falcons 2-0 The MongolZ	69% Falcons	CORRECT
GamerLegion 1-2 MOUZ	70% MOUZ	CORRECT
FUT 2-1 magic	70% FUT	CORRECT
G2 2-1 Astralis	67% G2	CORRECT

analysis Aug 17, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W33 → W34, 2026 — TIER (79.3%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 34 · Aug 10 – Aug 16, 2026

Models ranked

793

Predictions

Matches

79.3%

Best accuracy

0.2231

Brier Score

0.639

Log Loss

This week (Week 34 · Aug 10 – Aug 16, 2026) we analyzed 40 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. TIER dominated with 79.3% accuracy (23/29 correct), ahead of TIER2 at 79.3%. TIER achieved a Brier Score of 0.2231 and Log Loss of 0.639.

🏆 Model of the Week: TIER

TIER had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 23 out of 29 matches.

🥇

TIER

ELO for top-30 teams

TIER showed excellent performance with 79.3% accuracy across 29 predictions (23 correct, 6 wrong).

79.3%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W33: 79.3% (29)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER	79.3%	29	23	6
#2	TIER2	79.3%	29	23	6
#3	STRONGHOLD	78.6%	14	11	3
#4	SOS	78.4%	37	29	8
#5	VANGUARD	77.3%	22	17	5
#6	NEXUS	77.3%	22	17	5
#7	PHANTOM	76.9%	39	30	9
#8	HIGH-ORACLE	76.2%	21	16	5
#9	ELOHQ	75.9%	29	22	7
#10	APEX	75.7%	37	28	9
#11	ORACLE	75.7%	37	28	9
#12	TIER3	75.0%	24	18	6
#13	XGPRO	75.0%	24	18	6
#14	MAJOR	75.0%	24	18	6
#15	STREAK	73.7%	19	14	5
#16	ELO	73.0%	37	27	10
#17	ELOFACE	73.0%	37	27	10
#18	EAGLE	70.3%	37	26	11
#19	WR10C	66.7%	39	26	13
#20	TRIBUNAL	66.7%	9	6	3
#21	MIND	65.5%	29	19	10
#22	WR10	64.3%	28	18	10
#23	SQUAD	63.2%	38	24	14
#24	OPEN	57.1%	28	16	12
#25	WR10P	55.3%	38	21	17
#26	FORM	55.2%	29	16	13
#27	SURGE	32.4%	37	12	25

🎮 TIER Predictions This Week

23/29 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Legacy 2-0 MIBR	53% Legacy	CORRECT
Astralis 2-1 Ninjas in Pyjamas	52% Astralis	CORRECT
magic 2-1 9z	53% 9z	WRONG
MOUZ 2-0 PARIVISION	54% MOUZ	CORRECT
The MongolZ 2-0 paiN	53% The Mongol	CORRECT
Lynn Vision 0-2 Vitality	58% Vitality	CORRECT
Spirit 2-1 BIG	60% Spirit	CORRECT
JiJieHao 0-2 Aurora	55% Aurora	CORRECT
Wildcard 1-2 paiN	52% paiN	CORRECT
The MongolZ 1-2 Natus Vincere	53% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
B8 2-1 Vitality	58% Vitality	WRONG
FUT 2-1 MOUZ	53% MOUZ	WRONG
Ninjas in Pyjamas 2-0 BetBoom	54% BetBoom	WRONG
Falcons 2-0 Astralis	56% Falcons	CORRECT
BIG 1-2 G2	55% G2	CORRECT
Aurora 2-0 M80	55% Aurora	CORRECT
Luminosity 0-2 Spirit	62% Spirit	CORRECT
9z 13-3 paiN	53% 9z	CORRECT
Lynn Vision 8-13 MOUZ	56% MOUZ	CORRECT
Vitality 13-4 100 Thieves	57% Vitality	CORRECT
Wildcard 10-13 FURIA	57% FURIA	CORRECT
Natus Vincere 13-9 3DMAX	57% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Falcons 13-6 K27	59% Falcons	CORRECT
Ninjas in Pyjamas 5-13 Legacy	54% Legacy	CORRECT
G2 13-11 M80	55% G2	CORRECT
magic 7-13 The MongolZ	52% The Mongol	CORRECT
Spirit 10-13 JiJieHao	59% Spirit	WRONG
BIG 13-9 Aurora	56% Aurora	WRONG
Luminosity 3-13 GamerLegion	54% GamerLegio	CORRECT

analysis Aug 10, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W32 → W33, 2026 — SENTINEL (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 33 · Aug 03 – Aug 09, 2026

Models ranked

1635

Predictions

112

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.1347

Brier Score

0.4563

Log Loss

This week (Week 33 · Aug 03 – Aug 09, 2026) we analyzed 112 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. SENTINEL dominated with 100.0% accuracy (13/13 correct), ahead of VANGUARD at 97.0%. SENTINEL achieved a Brier Score of 0.1347 and Log Loss of 0.4563.

🏆 Model of the Week: SENTINEL

SENTINEL had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 13 out of 13 matches.

🥇

SENTINEL

Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction

SENTINEL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 13 predictions (13 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W32: 100.0% (13)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SENTINEL	100.0%	13	13	0
#2	VANGUARD	97.0%	33	32	1
#3	NEXUS	96.3%	27	26	1
#4	HIGH-ORACLE	92.3%	39	36	3
#5	TRIBUNAL	92.0%	25	23	2
#6	STRONGHOLD	89.5%	19	17	2
#7	ELOHQ	87.5%	56	49	7
#8	APEX	80.6%	98	79	19
#9	PHANTOM	80.4%	92	74	18
#10	EAGLE	80.0%	90	72	18
#11	ORACLE	79.4%	102	81	21
#12	SOS	77.6%	85	66	19
#13	ELOFACE	76.1%	88	67	21
#14	ELO	74.5%	94	70	24
#15	TIER2	73.9%	23	17	6
#16	TIER	72.7%	22	16	6
#17	SQUAD	71.9%	96	69	27
#18	WR10C	71.0%	100	71	29
#19	SURGE	60.6%	66	40	26
#20	OPEN	58.3%	72	42	30
#21	STREAK	58.1%	31	18	13
#22	XGPRO	57.5%	73	42	31
#23	MAJOR	57.5%	73	42	31
#24	TIER3	57.1%	7	4	3
#25	FORM	54.2%	83	45	38
#26	WR10	39.1%	23	9	14
#27	WR10P	33.3%	24	8	16
#28	MIND	32.1%	81	26	55

🎮 SENTINEL Predictions This Week

13/13 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
GenOne 2-0 Galactik rebels	65% GenOne	CORRECT
INFINITE 1-0 Giant Pandas	62% INFINITE	CORRECT
Dark Tigre 0-2 SINNERS	66% SINNERS	CORRECT
Partizan 2-0 Orion Wanderers	64% Partizan	CORRECT
Sangal 2-0 Zeste	65% Sangal	CORRECT
SadFamous 0-1 Eternal Fire	62% Eternal Fi	CORRECT
Liquid 2-0 Dhala	72% Liquid	CORRECT
EYEBALLERS 2-0 REVENIX	60% EYEBALLERS	CORRECT
DENDELE 2-0 SAW	63% DENDELE	CORRECT
QueenConso 0-2 EAC	62% EAC	CORRECT
BIG 2-0 z to forward	61% BIG	CORRECT
HOTU 2-0 Galactik rebels	60% HOTU	CORRECT
HEROIC 2-0 REM	63% HEROIC	CORRECT

analysis Aug 03, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W31 → W32, 2026 — STRONGHOLD (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 32 · Jul 27 – Aug 02, 2026

Models ranked

197

Predictions

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0819

Brier Score

0.3339

Log Loss

This week (Week 32 · Jul 27 – Aug 02, 2026) we analyzed 10 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (5/5 correct), ahead of TRIBUNAL at 100.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0819 and Log Loss of 0.3339.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 5 out of 5 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 5 predictions (5 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W31: 100.0% (5)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	5	5	0
#2	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	3	3	0
#3	VANGUARD	85.7%	7	6	1
#4	OPEN	85.7%	7	6	1
#5	NEXUS	83.3%	6	5	1
#6	TIER	83.3%	6	5	1
#7	APEX	80.0%	10	8	2
#8	ORACLE	80.0%	10	8	2
#9	HIGH-ORACLE	80.0%	5	4	1
#10	TIER3	80.0%	5	4	1
#11	XGPRO	80.0%	5	4	1
#12	MAJOR	80.0%	5	4	1
#13	FORM	77.8%	9	7	2
#14	SOS	77.8%	9	7	2
#15	WR10C	77.8%	9	7	2
#16	PHANTOM	77.8%	9	7	2
#17	ELO	77.8%	9	7	2
#18	ELOFACE	77.8%	9	7	2
#19	ELOHQ	75.0%	8	6	2
#20	STREAK	75.0%	4	3	1
#21	TIER2	71.4%	7	5	2
#22	EAGLE	70.0%	10	7	3
#23	SQUAD	66.7%	9	6	3
#24	MIND	50.0%	8	4	4
#25	WR10	42.9%	7	3	4
#26	WR10P	42.9%	7	3	4
#27	SURGE	22.2%	9	2	7

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

5/5 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Liquid 2-1 Betclic	65% Liquid	CORRECT
FaZe 1-2 Spirit	75% Spirit	CORRECT
3DMAX 1-2 MOUZ	74% MOUZ	CORRECT
Virtus.pro 2-1 BAKS	68% Virtus.pro	CORRECT
Liquid 0-2 Spirit	77% Spirit	CORRECT

analysis Aug 01, 2026 by cs2predict

Top Models July → August 2026 — TRIBUNAL leads at 77.3%

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · August 2026

Models ranked

2362

Total predictions

135

Matches tracked

77.3%

Best accuracy

Based on July 2026 data, we tracked 135 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models with a total of 2362 predictions. The average model accuracy was 61.3%, with a spread of 34.6% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

TRIBUNAL takes the top spot with 77.3% accuracy, followed by STRONGHOLD at 73.0% and SENTINEL at 70.0%.

🥇

TRIBUNAL

OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

TRIBUNAL showed excellent performance with 77.3% accuracy across 22 predictions (17 correct, 5 wrong). Best week: W28 at 100.0%, weakest: W30 at 42.9%.

77.3%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W27: 83.3% (6)W28: 100.0% (7)W30: 42.9% (7)W31: 100.0% (2)

🥈

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed strong performance with 73.0% accuracy across 37 predictions (27 correct, 10 wrong). Best week: W31 at 100.0%, weakest: W30 at 55.6%.

73.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W27: 83.3% (6)W28: 90.0% (10)W30: 55.6% (18)W31: 100.0% (3)

🥉

SENTINEL

Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction

SENTINEL showed strong performance with 70.0% accuracy across 10 predictions (7 correct, 3 wrong). Best week: W28 at 80.0%, weakest: W27 at 0.0%.

70.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W27: 0.0% (1)W28: 80.0% (5)W30: 75.0% (4)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TRIBUNAL	77.3%	22	17	5
#2	STRONGHOLD	73.0%	37	27	10
#3	SENTINEL	70.0%	10	7	3
#4	NEXUS	68.3%	60	41	19
#5	PHANTOM	68.0%	125	85	40
#6	VANGUARD	67.4%	43	29	14
#7	ORACLE	66.1%	118	78	40
#8	HIGH-ORACLE	66.1%	56	37	19
#9	EAGLE	65.9%	123	81	42
#10	TIER3	65.8%	38	25	13
#11	ELOHQ	65.7%	67	44	23
#12	ELOFACE	64.8%	105	68	37
#13	TIER	64.8%	54	35	19
#14	ELO	63.7%	113	72	41
#15	TIER2	62.5%	64	40	24
#16	APEX	62.3%	122	76	46
#17	SOS	61.8%	110	68	42
#18	WR10C	60.8%	125	76	49
#19	XGPRO	60.2%	93	56	37
#20	MAJOR	60.2%	93	56	37
#21	MIND	55.6%	117	65	52
#22	SQUAD	54.5%	110	60	50
#23	STREAK	53.8%	65	35	30
#24	OPEN	51.5%	103	53	50
#25	FORM	51.0%	104	53	51
#26	WR10	49.4%	77	38	39
#27	WR10P	44.0%	91	40	51
#28	SURGE	42.7%	117	50	67

analysis Jul 27, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W30 → W31, 2026 — TIER3 (68.4%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 31 · Jul 20 – Jul 26, 2026

Models ranked

807

Predictions

Matches

68.4%

Best accuracy

0.2398

Brier Score

0.6728

Log Loss

This week (Week 31 · Jul 20 – Jul 26, 2026) we analyzed 41 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. TIER3 dominated with 68.4% accuracy (13/19 correct), ahead of TIER3 at 68.4%. TIER3 achieved a Brier Score of 0.2398 and Log Loss of 0.6728.

🏆 Model of the Week: TIER3

TIER3 performed strongly this week with solid accuracy across 19 predictions.

🥇

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed strong performance with 68.4% accuracy across 19 predictions (13 correct, 6 wrong).

68.4%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W30: 68.4% (19)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SENTINEL	75.0%	4	3	1
#2	TIER3	68.4%	19	13	6
#3	EAGLE	67.6%	37	25	12
#4	PHANTOM	66.7%	39	26	13
#5	ORACLE	65.8%	38	25	13
#6	TIER	65.2%	23	15	8
#7	SOS	64.9%	37	24	13
#8	TIER2	61.5%	26	16	10
#9	NEXUS	61.5%	26	16	10
#10	APEX	60.0%	40	24	16
#11	HIGH-ORACLE	57.7%	26	15	11
#12	ELOHQ	56.7%	30	17	13
#13	STRONGHOLD	55.6%	18	10	8
#14	ELO	54.1%	37	20	17
#15	ELOFACE	52.8%	36	19	17
#16	WR10C	52.6%	38	20	18
#17	XGPRO	51.7%	29	15	14
#18	MAJOR	51.7%	29	15	14
#19	SQUAD	51.5%	33	17	16
#20	MIND	50.0%	36	18	18
#21	VANGUARD	50.0%	20	10	10
#22	STREAK	45.0%	20	9	11
#23	TRIBUNAL	42.9%	7	3	4
#24	OPEN	41.9%	31	13	18
#25	FORM	36.4%	33	12	21
#26	WR10P	33.3%	33	11	22
#27	WR10	33.3%	27	9	18
#28	SURGE	31.4%	35	11	24

🎮 TIER3 Predictions This Week

13/19 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
100 Thieves 1-2 Spirit	55% Spirit	CORRECT
Wildcard 0-2 The MongolZ	54% The Mongol	CORRECT
3DMAX 2-0 FUT	53% FUT	WRONG
FOKUS 0-2 MOUZ	54% MOUZ	CORRECT
Aurora 2-0 Echo	54% Aurora	CORRECT
Liquid 2-0 G2	54% G2	WRONG
DENDELE 2-1 FURIA	55% FURIA	WRONG
Liquid 2-0 Vitality	57% Vitality	WRONG
HEROIC 1-2 The MongolZ	52% The Mongol	CORRECT
SINNERS 1-2 FUT	54% FUT	CORRECT
FOKUS 2-1 Aurora	54% Aurora	WRONG
OG 1-2 Spirit	57% Spirit	CORRECT
100 Thieves 2-1 Falcons	55% Falcons	WRONG
Aurora 2-1 Nemesis	54% Aurora	CORRECT
Nemiga 1-2 G2	54% G2	CORRECT
Aurora 2-1 K27	54% Aurora	CORRECT
Nemesis 1-2 Astralis	52% Astralis	CORRECT
Nuclear TigeRES 0-2 MOUZ	54% MOUZ	CORRECT
Astralis 2-1 FOKUS	52% Astralis	CORRECT

analysis Jul 20, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W29 → W30, 2026 — SQUAD (63.6%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 30 · Jul 13 – Jul 19, 2026

Models ranked

216

Predictions

Matches

63.6%

Best accuracy

0.2753

Brier Score

0.7836

Log Loss

This week (Week 30 · Jul 13 – Jul 19, 2026) we analyzed 20 top-tier CS2 matches across 20 prediction models. SQUAD dominated with 63.6% accuracy (7/11 correct), ahead of SQUAD at 63.6%. SQUAD achieved a Brier Score of 0.2753 and Log Loss of 0.7836.

🏆 Model of the Week: SQUAD

SQUAD edged out the competition this week, though accuracy across all models was moderate.

🥇

SQUAD

Player ratings

SQUAD showed decent performance with 63.6% accuracy across 11 predictions (7 correct, 4 wrong).

63.6%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W29: 63.6% (11)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	WR10P	66.7%	3	2	1
#2	SQUAD	63.6%	11	7	4
#3	XGPRO	60.0%	10	6	4
#4	MAJOR	60.0%	10	6	4
#5	PHANTOM	56.2%	16	9	7
#6	EAGLE	56.2%	16	9	7
#7	WR10C	50.0%	18	9	9
#8	FORM	50.0%	12	6	6
#9	WR10	50.0%	4	2	2
#10	OPEN	46.2%	13	6	7
#11	APEX	46.2%	13	6	7
#12	ELO	42.9%	14	6	8
#13	MIND	42.9%	14	6	8
#14	ELOFACE	40.0%	10	4	6
#15	ELOHQ	40.0%	5	2	3
#16	ORACLE	38.5%	13	5	8
#17	SURGE	33.3%	12	4	8
#18	TIER2	33.3%	3	1	2
#19	STREAK	28.6%	7	2	5
#20	SOS	25.0%	12	3	9

🎮 SQUAD Predictions This Week

7/11 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
United Kingdom 2-0 Belgium	86% Belgium	WRONG
HEROIC 3-0 K27	61% HEROIC	CORRECT
Ninjas in Pyjamas 1-2 K27	72% K27	CORRECT
Ninjas in Pyjamas 1-2 HEROIC	80% HEROIC	CORRECT
K27 2-0 Phantom	87% K27	CORRECT
Imperial 1-2 Fluxo	69% Imperial	WRONG
paiN 1-2 Phantom	87% paiN	WRONG
Wildcard 0-2 Gentle Mates	78% Gentle Mat	CORRECT
3DMAX 1-2 HEROIC	61% HEROIC	CORRECT
Ninjas in Pyjamas 2-0 K27	72% K27	WRONG
fnatic 2-0 SPARTA	77% fnatic	CORRECT

analysis Jul 13, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W28 → W29, 2026 — TRIBUNAL (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 29 · Jul 06 – Jul 12, 2026

Models ranked

600

Predictions

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.1544

Brier Score

0.4987

Log Loss

This week (Week 29 · Jul 06 – Jul 12, 2026) we analyzed 35 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. TRIBUNAL dominated with 100.0% accuracy (7/7 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 90.0%. TRIBUNAL achieved a Brier Score of 0.1544 and Log Loss of 0.4987.

🏆 Model of the Week: TRIBUNAL

TRIBUNAL had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 7 out of 7 matches.

🥇

TRIBUNAL

OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

TRIBUNAL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 7 predictions (7 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W28: 100.0% (7)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	7	7	0
#2	STRONGHOLD	90.0%	10	9	1
#3	VANGUARD	85.7%	7	6	1
#4	HIGH-ORACLE	81.2%	16	13	3
#5	NEXUS	81.2%	16	13	3
#6	SENTINEL	80.0%	5	4	1
#7	EAGLE	77.4%	31	24	7
#8	PHANTOM	75.8%	33	25	8
#9	ORACLE	75.8%	33	25	8
#10	SOS	75.0%	28	21	7
#11	ELOHQ	75.0%	16	12	4
#12	ELOFACE	73.1%	26	19	7
#13	XGPRO	69.2%	26	18	8
#14	MAJOR	69.2%	26	18	8
#15	ELO	69.0%	29	20	9
#16	APEX	67.7%	31	21	10
#17	STREAK	66.7%	15	10	5
#18	TIER2	66.7%	12	8	4
#19	TIER	63.6%	11	7	4
#20	MIND	61.3%	31	19	12
#21	TIER3	60.0%	5	3	2
#22	WR10C	56.2%	32	18	14
#23	SQUAD	53.1%	32	17	15
#24	FORM	48.0%	25	12	13
#25	OPEN	45.8%	24	11	13
#26	SURGE	45.5%	33	15	18
#27	WR10	42.1%	19	8	11
#28	WR10P	28.6%	21	6	15

🎮 TRIBUNAL Predictions This Week

7/7 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
The Huns 0-2 TYLOO	62% TYLOO	CORRECT
M80 2-0 LAG	63% M80	CORRECT
5star 2-1 Alter Ego	58% 5star	CORRECT
TYLOO 2-0 The MongolZ Academy	63% TYLOO	CORRECT
BESTIA 2-0 Fluxo	59% BESTIA	CORRECT
Voca 2-0 NuTorious	58% Voca	CORRECT
magic 2-1 EAC	64% magic	CORRECT

analysis Jul 06, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W27 → W28, 2026 — VANGUARD (90.9%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 28 · Jun 29 – Jul 05, 2026

Models ranked

627

Predictions

Matches

90.9%

Best accuracy

0.1065

Brier Score

0.3789

Log Loss

This week (Week 28 · Jun 29 – Jul 05, 2026) we analyzed 34 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. VANGUARD dominated with 90.9% accuracy (10/11 correct), ahead of ELOHQ at 84.6%. VANGUARD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1065 and Log Loss of 0.3789.

🏆 Model of the Week: VANGUARD

VANGUARD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 10 out of 11 matches.

🥇

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed excellent performance with 90.9% accuracy across 11 predictions (10 correct, 1 wrong).

90.9%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W27: 90.9% (11)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	VANGUARD	90.9%	11	10	1
#2	ELOHQ	84.6%	13	11	2
#3	STRONGHOLD	83.3%	6	5	1
#4	TRIBUNAL	83.3%	6	5	1
#5	ELO	79.3%	29	23	6
#6	ELOFACE	79.3%	29	23	6
#7	WR10C	78.8%	33	26	7
#8	NEXUS	75.0%	12	9	3
#9	WR10	70.8%	24	17	7
#10	HIGH-ORACLE	70.0%	10	7	3
#11	FORM	66.7%	30	20	10
#12	ORACLE	65.5%	29	19	10
#13	PHANTOM	63.6%	33	21	12
#14	TIER3	63.6%	11	7	4
#15	TIER2	63.2%	19	12	7
#16	OPEN	62.5%	32	20	12
#17	APEX	62.5%	32	20	12
#18	TIER	62.5%	16	10	6
#19	MIND	61.3%	31	19	12
#20	WR10P	61.3%	31	19	12
#21	SURGE	59.4%	32	19	13
#22	SOS	58.6%	29	17	12
#23	XGPRO	58.3%	24	14	10
#24	MAJOR	58.3%	24	14	10
#25	STREAK	57.9%	19	11	8
#26	EAGLE	57.6%	33	19	14
#27	SQUAD	51.7%	29	15	14

🎮 VANGUARD Predictions This Week

10/11 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
MIBR 0-2 9z	74% 9z	CORRECT
EYEBALLERS 1-2 Nemesis	74% Nemesis	CORRECT
FaZe 2-0 SINNERS	66% FaZe	CORRECT
3DMAX 9-13 9z	79% 9z	CORRECT
Luminosity 1-2 Ninjas in Pyjamas	77% Ninjas in	CORRECT
9z 13-5 SINNERS	79% 9z	CORRECT
BetBoom 13-11 BIG	72% BetBoom	CORRECT
Luminosity 8-13 Lynn Vision	78% Lynn Visio	CORRECT
BetBoom 13-4 SINNERS	78% BetBoom	CORRECT
Luminosity 10-13 Nemesis	87% Nemesis	CORRECT
9z 10-13 EYEBALLERS	76% 9z	WRONG

analysis Jul 01, 2026 by cs2predict

Top Models June → July 2026 — TIER3 leads at 73.3%

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · July 2026

Models ranked

1926

Total predictions

115

Matches tracked

73.3%

Best accuracy

Based on June 2026 data, we tracked 115 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models with a total of 1926 predictions. The average model accuracy was 59.9%, with a spread of 48.3% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

TIER3 takes the top spot with 73.3% accuracy, followed by ELOHQ at 72.6% and VANGUARD at 70.0%.

🥇

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed strong performance with 73.3% accuracy across 30 predictions (22 correct, 8 wrong). Best week: W24 at 84.6%, weakest: W26 at 0.0%.

73.3%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 83.3% (12)W24: 84.6% (13)W25: 33.3% (3)W26: 0.0% (2)

🥈

ELOHQ

High-confidence ELO

ELOHQ showed strong performance with 72.6% accuracy across 62 predictions (45 correct, 17 wrong). Best week: W27 at 100.0%, weakest: W26 at 0.0%.

72.6%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 70.0% (30)W24: 86.4% (22)W25: 57.1% (7)W26: 0.0% (2)W27: 100.0% (1)

🥉

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed strong performance with 70.0% accuracy across 30 predictions (21 correct, 9 wrong). Best week: W23 at 85.7%, weakest: W26 at 0.0%.

70.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 85.7% (7)W24: 81.2% (16)W25: 40.0% (5)W26: 0.0% (2)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER3	73.3%	30	22	8
#2	ELOHQ	72.6%	62	45	17
#3	VANGUARD	70.0%	30	21	9
#4	NEXUS	68.6%	35	24	11
#5	ELOFACE	68.5%	92	63	29
#6	TIER2	67.9%	56	38	18
#7	WR10C	67.3%	104	70	34
#8	TIER	66.7%	48	32	16
#9	ELO	66.0%	100	66	34
#10	STRONGHOLD	65.0%	20	13	7
#11	ORACLE	64.9%	97	63	34
#12	EAGLE	64.8%	88	57	31
#13	HIGH-ORACLE	63.3%	30	19	11
#14	APEX	61.9%	105	65	40
#15	PHANTOM	61.2%	103	63	40
#16	SOS	60.0%	95	57	38
#17	WR10P	58.4%	101	59	42
#18	WR10	57.1%	77	44	33
#19	SURGE	57.1%	77	44	33
#20	TRIBUNAL	57.1%	7	4	3
#21	OPEN	57.0%	79	45	34
#22	FORM	56.2%	89	50	39
#23	STREAK	50.9%	53	27	26
#24	XGPRO	50.7%	73	37	36
#25	MAJOR	50.7%	73	37	36
#26	MIND	50.6%	89	45	44
#27	SQUAD	45.0%	109	49	60
#28	SENTINEL	25.0%	4	1	3

analysis Jun 29, 2026 by cs2predict

W27, 2026 — quiet week between tournaments (only 2 top-tier matches)

Not much to report this week — the calendar landed between events. From June 22 through 28 only two matches on the top / major tier reached completion, which is far short of what we normally need for a meaningful model breakdown.

Why the "Model of the Week" isn't ranked this time

Our weekly digest normally ranks all 20+ models by accuracy across the week's premium matches. With just 2 matches:

Every model sits at either 0%, 50%, or 100% accuracy — a coin-flip statistic, not signal.
The "winner" would be whichever model happened to call one specific match correctly. That's noise dressed up as insight.
Publishing rankings on this small a sample would mislead more than inform.

So instead of pretending, here's the actual state.

What ran during the week

EPL World SEA S16 wrapped up — regional finals came in mid-week; most matches sat in tier=professional or tier=other, not top-tier by our classifier.
Assorted qualifiers (TI-EU CQ, TI-NA CQ, CCT Series, Choco Cup) — most of the week's traffic, but again below the "major" bar we use for the digest.
The 2 top-tier matches that did settle were isolated one-offs at the edges of the week.

Coming up

The calendar picks up sharply from here — TI2026 Regional Qualifiers are still active, and higher-tier lineups roll into July. Model accuracy stats will start being meaningful again as soon as those matches settle. Watch the Models page for live leaderboard positioning, and the Matches feed for what's scheduled.

A note on our methodology: we intentionally hold the "Model of the Week" post to at least 3 predictions per model. If we can't clear that bar, we say so instead of publishing noisy rankings. Full model accuracy across all time windows is always available on the Models leaderboard.

— The cs2predict team

analysis Jun 22, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W25 → W26, 2026 — SURGE (78.6%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 26 · Jun 15 – Jun 21, 2026

Models ranked

226

Predictions

Matches

78.6%

Best accuracy

0.201

Brier Score

0.6194

Log Loss

This week (Week 26 · Jun 15 – Jun 21, 2026) we analyzed 16 top-tier CS2 matches across 23 prediction models. SURGE dominated with 78.6% accuracy (11/14 correct), ahead of ELOFACE at 66.7%. SURGE achieved a Brier Score of 0.201 and Log Loss of 0.6194.

🏆 Model of the Week: SURGE

SURGE had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 11 out of 14 matches.

🥇

SURGE

Best-improving player K-D trajectory across team starters

SURGE showed excellent performance with 78.6% accuracy across 14 predictions (11 correct, 3 wrong).

78.6%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W25: 78.6% (14)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SURGE	78.6%	14	11	3
#2	ELOFACE	66.7%	9	6	3
#3	FORM	63.6%	11	7	4
#4	ELO	63.6%	11	7	4
#5	WR10C	61.5%	13	8	5
#6	OPEN	58.3%	12	7	5
#7	ELOHQ	57.1%	7	4	3
#8	XGPRO	55.6%	9	5	4
#9	MAJOR	55.6%	9	5	4
#10	ORACLE	54.5%	11	6	5
#11	APEX	53.3%	15	8	7
#12	PHANTOM	50.0%	14	7	7
#13	WR10P	50.0%	10	5	5
#14	MIND	44.4%	9	4	5
#15	WR10	44.4%	9	4	5
#16	EAGLE	40.0%	10	4	6
#17	SOS	40.0%	10	4	6
#18	VANGUARD	40.0%	5	2	3
#19	TIER2	37.5%	8	3	5
#20	SQUAD	35.7%	14	5	9
#21	TIER3	33.3%	3	1	2
#22	STREAK	28.6%	7	2	5
#23	TIER	16.7%	6	1	5

🎮 SURGE Predictions This Week

11/14 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
FURIA 0-3 Falcons	79% Falcons	CORRECT
TDK 2-0 100 Thieves	67% TDK	CORRECT
Virtus.pro 0-2 ex-RUBY	67% ex-RUBY	CORRECT
Spirit 1-2 Falcons	76% Falcons	CORRECT
Aurora 0-2 FURIA	73% FURIA	CORRECT
Falcons 2-1 Vitality	83% Falcons	CORRECT
G2 1-2 Spirit	67% Spirit	CORRECT
Aurora 2-0 BetBoom	73% BetBoom	WRONG
Nuclear TigeRES 2-1 Nemesis	53% Nuclear Ti	CORRECT
TDK 1-2 Nemesis	57% Nemesis	CORRECT
PsychoFace 1-2 Virtus.pro	91% PsychoFace	WRONG
Natus Vincere 1-2 G2	62% Natus Vinc	WRONG
BetBoom 2-0 FUT	77% BetBoom	CORRECT
9z 2-0 The MongolZ	70% 9z	CORRECT

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