analysis Jul 01, 2026 by cs2predict

Top Models June → July 2026 — TIER3 leads at 73.3%

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · July 2026

28

Models ranked

1926

Total predictions

115

Matches tracked

73.3%

Best accuracy

Based on June 2026 data, we tracked 115 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models with a total of 1926 predictions. The average model accuracy was 59.9%, with a spread of 48.3% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

TIER3 takes the top spot with 73.3% accuracy, followed by ELOHQ at 72.6% and VANGUARD at 70.0%.

🥇

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed strong performance with 73.3% accuracy across 30 predictions (22 correct, 8 wrong). Best week: W24 at 84.6%, weakest: W26 at 0.0%.

73.3%

Accuracy

30

Predictions

22

Correct

8

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 83.3% (12)W24: 84.6% (13)W25: 33.3% (3)W26: 0.0% (2)

🥈

ELOHQ

High-confidence ELO

ELOHQ showed strong performance with 72.6% accuracy across 62 predictions (45 correct, 17 wrong). Best week: W27 at 100.0%, weakest: W26 at 0.0%.

72.6%

Accuracy

62

Predictions

45

Correct

17

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 70.0% (30)W24: 86.4% (22)W25: 57.1% (7)W26: 0.0% (2)W27: 100.0% (1)

🥉

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed strong performance with 70.0% accuracy across 30 predictions (21 correct, 9 wrong). Best week: W23 at 85.7%, weakest: W26 at 0.0%.

70.0%

Accuracy

30

Predictions

21

Correct

9

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 85.7% (7)W24: 81.2% (16)W25: 40.0% (5)W26: 0.0% (2)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER3	73.3%	30	22	8
#2	ELOHQ	72.6%	62	45	17
#3	VANGUARD	70.0%	30	21	9
#4	NEXUS	68.6%	35	24	11
#5	ELOFACE	68.5%	92	63	29
#6	TIER2	67.9%	56	38	18
#7	WR10C	67.3%	104	70	34
#8	TIER	66.7%	48	32	16
#9	ELO	66.0%	100	66	34
#10	STRONGHOLD	65.0%	20	13	7
#11	ORACLE	64.9%	97	63	34
#12	EAGLE	64.8%	88	57	31
#13	HIGH-ORACLE	63.3%	30	19	11
#14	APEX	61.9%	105	65	40
#15	PHANTOM	61.2%	103	63	40
#16	SOS	60.0%	95	57	38
#17	WR10P	58.4%	101	59	42
#18	WR10	57.1%	77	44	33
#19	SURGE	57.1%	77	44	33
#20	TRIBUNAL	57.1%	7	4	3
#21	OPEN	57.0%	79	45	34
#22	FORM	56.2%	89	50	39
#23	STREAK	50.9%	53	27	26
#24	XGPRO	50.7%	73	37	36
#25	MAJOR	50.7%	73	37	36
#26	MIND	50.6%	89	45	44
#27	SQUAD	45.0%	109	49	60
#28	SENTINEL	25.0%	4	1	3

Read more →

analysis Jun 29, 2026 by cs2predict

W27, 2026 — quiet week between tournaments (only 2 top-tier matches)

Not much to report this week — the calendar landed between events. From June 22 through 28 only two matches on the top / major tier reached completion, which is far short of what we normally need for a meaningful model breakdown.

Why the "Model of the Week" isn't ranked this time

Our weekly digest normally ranks all 20+ models by accuracy across the week's premium matches. With just 2 matches:

Every model sits at either 0%, 50%, or 100% accuracy — a coin-flip statistic, not signal.
The "winner" would be whichever model happened to call one specific match correctly. That's noise dressed up as insight.
Publishing rankings on this small a sample would mislead more than inform.

So instead of pretending, here's the actual state.

What ran during the week

EPL World SEA S16 wrapped up — regional finals came in mid-week; most matches sat in tier=professional or tier=other, not top-tier by our classifier.
Assorted qualifiers (TI-EU CQ, TI-NA CQ, CCT Series, Choco Cup) — most of the week's traffic, but again below the "major" bar we use for the digest.
The 2 top-tier matches that did settle were isolated one-offs at the edges of the week.

Coming up

The calendar picks up sharply from here — TI2026 Regional Qualifiers are still active, and higher-tier lineups roll into July. Model accuracy stats will start being meaningful again as soon as those matches settle. Watch the Models page for live leaderboard positioning, and the Matches feed for what's scheduled.

A note on our methodology: we intentionally hold the "Model of the Week" post to at least 3 predictions per model. If we can't clear that bar, we say so instead of publishing noisy rankings. Full model accuracy across all time windows is always available on the Models leaderboard.

— The cs2predict team

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analysis Jun 22, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W25 → W26, 2026 — SURGE (78.6%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 26 · Jun 15 – Jun 21, 2026

23

Models ranked

226

Predictions

16

Matches

78.6%

Best accuracy

0.201

Brier Score

0.6194

Log Loss

This week (Week 26 · Jun 15 – Jun 21, 2026) we analyzed 16 top-tier CS2 matches across 23 prediction models. SURGE dominated with 78.6% accuracy (11/14 correct), ahead of ELOFACE at 66.7%. SURGE achieved a Brier Score of 0.201 and Log Loss of 0.6194.

🏆 Model of the Week: SURGE

SURGE had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 11 out of 14 matches.

🥇

SURGE

Best-improving player K-D trajectory across team starters

SURGE showed excellent performance with 78.6% accuracy across 14 predictions (11 correct, 3 wrong).

78.6%

Accuracy

14

Predictions

11

Correct

3

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W25: 78.6% (14)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SURGE	78.6%	14	11	3
#2	ELOFACE	66.7%	9	6	3
#3	FORM	63.6%	11	7	4
#4	ELO	63.6%	11	7	4
#5	WR10C	61.5%	13	8	5
#6	OPEN	58.3%	12	7	5
#7	ELOHQ	57.1%	7	4	3
#8	XGPRO	55.6%	9	5	4
#9	MAJOR	55.6%	9	5	4
#10	ORACLE	54.5%	11	6	5
#11	APEX	53.3%	15	8	7
#12	PHANTOM	50.0%	14	7	7
#13	WR10P	50.0%	10	5	5
#14	MIND	44.4%	9	4	5
#15	WR10	44.4%	9	4	5
#16	EAGLE	40.0%	10	4	6
#17	SOS	40.0%	10	4	6
#18	VANGUARD	40.0%	5	2	3
#19	TIER2	37.5%	8	3	5
#20	SQUAD	35.7%	14	5	9
#21	TIER3	33.3%	3	1	2
#22	STREAK	28.6%	7	2	5
#23	TIER	16.7%	6	1	5

🎮 SURGE Predictions This Week

11/14 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
FURIA 0-3 Falcons	79% Falcons	CORRECT
TDK 2-0 100 Thieves	67% TDK	CORRECT
Virtus.pro 0-2 ex-RUBY	67% ex-RUBY	CORRECT
Spirit 1-2 Falcons	76% Falcons	CORRECT
Aurora 0-2 FURIA	73% FURIA	CORRECT
Falcons 2-1 Vitality	83% Falcons	CORRECT
G2 1-2 Spirit	67% Spirit	CORRECT
Aurora 2-0 BetBoom	73% BetBoom	WRONG
Nuclear TigeRES 2-1 Nemesis	53% Nuclear Ti	CORRECT
TDK 1-2 Nemesis	57% Nemesis	CORRECT
PsychoFace 1-2 Virtus.pro	91% PsychoFace	WRONG
Natus Vincere 1-2 G2	62% Natus Vinc	WRONG
BetBoom 2-0 FUT	77% BetBoom	CORRECT
9z 2-0 The MongolZ	70% 9z	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis Jun 15, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W24 → W25, 2026 — STRONGHOLD (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 25 · Jun 08 – Jun 14, 2026

26

Models ranked

692

Predictions

39

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0919

Brier Score

0.36

Log Loss

This week (Week 25 · Jun 08 – Jun 14, 2026) we analyzed 39 top-tier CS2 matches across 26 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (6/6 correct), ahead of NEXUS at 90.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0919 and Log Loss of 0.36.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 6 out of 6 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 6 predictions (6 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

6

Predictions

6

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W24: 100.0% (6)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	6	6	0
#2	NEXUS	90.0%	10	9	1
#3	TIER	88.9%	18	16	2
#4	HIGH-ORACLE	87.5%	8	7	1
#5	ELOHQ	86.4%	22	19	3
#6	TIER2	85.0%	20	17	3
#7	TIER3	84.6%	13	11	2
#8	PHANTOM	82.4%	34	28	6
#9	VANGUARD	81.2%	16	13	3
#10	ELOFACE	80.0%	35	28	7
#11	ORACLE	80.0%	35	28	7
#12	EAGLE	80.0%	30	24	6
#13	SOS	78.8%	33	26	7
#14	ELO	78.4%	37	29	8
#15	APEX	78.4%	37	29	8
#16	WR10C	73.7%	38	28	10
#17	OPEN	70.4%	27	19	8
#18	FORM	69.0%	29	20	9
#19	WR10	64.5%	31	20	11
#20	STREAK	63.2%	19	12	7
#21	XGPRO	62.5%	24	15	9
#22	MAJOR	62.5%	24	15	9
#23	WR10P	61.5%	39	24	15
#24	MIND	53.1%	32	17	15
#25	SURGE	51.4%	37	19	18
#26	SQUAD	50.0%	38	19	19

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

6/6 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Spirit 2-1 9z	73% Spirit	CORRECT
Vitality 2-1 MOUZ	68% Vitality	CORRECT
Aurora 1-2 Spirit	70% Spirit	CORRECT
Vitality 2-1 FUT	75% Vitality	CORRECT
Legacy 2-0 TYLOO	67% Legacy	CORRECT
G2 2-0 BIG	66% G2	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis Jun 11, 2026 by cs2predict

TIERELO's 12/15 Pickem Run + Stage 3 Predictions Live

The Cologne Major's Legends Stage closed last weekend with a near-perfect AI run from TIERELO (12 out of 15 — our highest Pickem score so far). Stage 3 just opened with all 16 teams now at the LANXESS arena. Here's what worked, what flopped, and what the models think happens next.

Stage 2 results

Outcome	Teams
3-0	FUT, Spirit
3-1 / 3-2	G2, 9z, BetBoom, B8, Monte, Legacy
2-3 / 1-3	BIG, paiN, TYLOO, MIBR, M80, Astralis
0-3	FlyQuest, GamerLegion

🏆 TIERELO ran the table — 12/15

The story of Stage 2 is TIERELO. It is our highest Pickem score on cs2predict.gg so far — Stage 1's winner SENTINEL only managed 6/15. Here's TIERELO's bracket:

Pick	Team	Result	Points
🏆 3-0	Spirit	✓ Spirit went 3-0	+4
💀 0-3	FlyQuest	✓ FlyQuest went 0-3	+4
⚡ Advance (4/7)	G2, Legacy, Monte, B8	✓ all four advanced	+4
⚡ Advance (3 misses)	Astralis, GamerLegion, paiN	✗ all eliminated	+0
Total			12/15

Why TIERELO worked here: The model weights tier-3 teams by their ELO relative to bracket peers (not absolute), so it catches the right "tier-1 underdog runs the bracket" signals. Spirit going 3-0 was a non-consensus call — most models had Vitality or another top seed as the safer perfect-Swiss pick. And FlyQuest as 0-3 was unloved by exactly the kinds of models that overweight HLTV rank.

Stage 2 leaderboard (top 6)

#	Model	Score	3-0 / 0-3	Advance
🥇	TIERELO	12	✓ / ✓	4 / 7
🥈	WR10COMBO	11	✓ / ✓	3 / 7
🥉	SURGE	8	✓ / ✗	4 / 7
#4	ELO	7	✓ / ✗	3 / 7
#5	ELOFACE	7	✓ / ✗	3 / 7
#6	ELOHQ	7	✓ / ✗	3 / 7

SURGE (our newest PRO-tier model, launched right before Stage 2) debuts at 3rd place on its very first Pickem event — both lines correct except for the 0-3 call. Nice start.

Cumulative leaderboard (after Stage 2)

Two events in, the standings are starting to mean something:

#	Model	Total Pts	Per event
🥇	WR10COMBO	16	8.0
🥈	TIERELO	14	7.0
🥉	TRIBUNAL	10	5.0
#4	SENTINEL	10	5.0
#5	TIER3ELO	10	5.0

WR10COMBO is the only model on the site to nail both Pickem 4-point lines across two stages (3-0 and 0-3 in each event). Steady, dull, and almost certainly the one to bet on for Stage 3. Full table: /pickem/leaderboard/.

🔮 Stage 3 is live — predictions open

The Champions Stage just started in Cologne. 16 teams, BO3 throughout (a first for a CS2 Major), all Swiss, top 8 advance to playoffs. Field is the eight Stage 2 advancers (FUT, Spirit, G2, BetBoom, 9z, B8, Legacy, Monte) joined by the eight pre-qualified Champions seeds (Vitality, Natus Vincere, MOUZ, Falcons, FURIA, Aurora, The MongolZ, PARIVISION).

AI Consensus across our 28 models:

Role	Consensus pick	Agree
🏆 3-0	Vitality	16 / 28 (57%)
💀 0-3	BetBoom	13 / 28 (46%)
⚡ Top advancers	The MongolZ (82%), Falcons (75%), PARIVISION (64%), Natus Vincere (60%), MOUZ (60%), Spirit (57%), Aurora (53%)

The interesting story is BetBoom as consensus 0-3. They scraped through Stage 2 at 3-1 (avoiding elimination on the final map of their final match) and the models clearly read that as a fluke. If they go out 0-3 here, the models will look smart. If they make it through again, this becomes the Pickem upset of the Major.

And Vitality as 3-0 is mostly "trust the rank" — they're the world #1 entering Stage 3 and most models default to that. The interesting alternative comes from TIERELO (the Stage 2 winner) and a couple of others, who picked a different team to run the table. Click into /pickem/iem-cologne-major-2026-stage-3/ to see every model's individual bracket — and whether the meta-models that dominated Stage 2 agree on the upset call.

Predictions are live; the bracket fills in as the next four days play out. The cumulative leaderboard will update automatically once Stage 3 finalizes.

Heads-up: after Stage 3 closes (around June 14), the eight survivors head into a BO3 single-elim playoff bracket. We're working on a separate "champion / finalist / semifinalist" Pickem-style page for that — different scoring (4 + 4 + 1×2 = max 10), same idea.

Read more →

analysis Jun 08, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W23 → W24, 2026 — VANGUARD (85.7%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 24 · Jun 01 – Jun 07, 2026

27

Models ranked

940

Predictions

58

Matches

85.7%

Best accuracy

0.1258

Brier Score

0.4174

Log Loss

This week (Week 24 · Jun 01 – Jun 07, 2026) we analyzed 58 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. VANGUARD dominated with 85.7% accuracy (6/7 correct), ahead of TIER3 at 83.3%. VANGUARD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1258 and Log Loss of 0.4174.

🏆 Model of the Week: VANGUARD

VANGUARD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 6 out of 7 matches.

🥇

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed excellent performance with 85.7% accuracy across 7 predictions (6 correct, 1 wrong).

85.7%

Accuracy

7

Predictions

6

Correct

1

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 85.7% (7)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	VANGUARD	85.7%	7	6	1
#2	TIER3	83.3%	12	10	2
#3	NEXUS	71.4%	21	15	6
#4	ELOHQ	70.0%	30	21	9
#5	TIER2	69.2%	26	18	8
#6	TIER	68.2%	22	15	7
#7	HIGH-ORACLE	66.7%	18	12	6
#8	WR10C	66.0%	50	33	17
#9	EAGLE	63.0%	46	29	17
#10	ELOFACE	62.2%	45	28	17
#11	STRONGHOLD	60.0%	10	6	4
#12	ELO	59.2%	49	29	20
#13	ORACLE	58.3%	48	28	20
#14	WR10P	58.0%	50	29	21
#15	SURGE	56.5%	23	13	10
#16	WR10	55.6%	36	20	16
#17	APEX	54.9%	51	28	23
#18	PHANTOM	53.8%	52	28	24
#19	SOS	53.1%	49	26	23
#20	MIND	48.9%	45	22	23
#21	STREAK	48.1%	27	13	14
#22	FORM	47.8%	46	22	24
#23	OPEN	47.4%	38	18	20
#24	SQUAD	45.5%	55	25	30
#25	XGPRO	42.5%	40	17	23
#26	MAJOR	42.5%	40	17	23
#27	TRIBUNAL	25.0%	4	1	3

🎮 VANGUARD Predictions This Week

6/7 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Spirit 2-0 9z	79% Spirit	CORRECT
Spirit 13-1 MIBR	87% Spirit	CORRECT
Legacy 13-7 FlyQuest	80% Legacy	CORRECT
Legacy 8-13 MIBR	79% Legacy	WRONG
Spirit 13-5 BetBoom	84% Spirit	CORRECT
9z 13-9 FlyQuest	77% 9z	CORRECT
GamerLegion 2-0 BIG	73% GamerLegio	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis Jun 05, 2026 by cs2predict

Pickem Stage 1 Results + New Leaderboard Launch

Following up on our Stage 1 launch post, the IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Swiss has wrapped. Here's what 27 AI models actually got right — and the new Pickem Leaderboard we just launched to track all of this going forward.

The actual Stage 1 outcome

Stage 1 produced two 3-0 teams, two 0-3 teams, and six advancers:

3-0: B8, BetBoom
0-3: SINNERS, Gaimin Gladiators
Advanced (3-1 / 3-2): GamerLegion, MIBR, BIG, TYLOO, M80, FlyQuest
Eliminated (1-3 / 2-3): HEROIC, Lynn Vision, Liquid, Sharks, NRG, THUNDER dOWNUNDER

The big upset: HEROIC

The story of Stage 1 is HEROIC. They were the consensus 3-0 pick from 12 of 27 models — the heaviest concentration of any team on any pick. They went out at 1-3.

Meanwhile B8, who only one model (SENTINEL) called for 3-0, ran the table perfectly. That single non-consensus call is the entire reason SENTINEL won the event.

Top scorers — Stage 1

#	Model	Pts	3-0 pick	0-3 pick	Advance
🥇	SENTINEL	6	B8 ✓	BetBoom ✗	2 / 7
🥈	WR10COMBO	5	GamerLegion ✗	SINNERS ✓	1 / 7
🥉	HIGHORACLE	4	HEROIC ✗	GamerLegion ✗	4 / 7

Three observations:

SENTINEL is the only model that scored on the 3-0 line. It picked B8 — a team almost every other model rated as a fringe advancer at best.
WR10COMBO was the only model to nail the 0-3 line (SINNERS). That single +4 pts vaulted it to second despite a weak advance count.
HIGHORACLE has the highest advance hit-rate (4/7) but missed both anchors. Solid mid-tier judgment, weak on extremes — a classic "play it safe" profile.

Introducing the Pickem Leaderboard

From now on, every model's Pickem performance accumulates across all completed Majors. The new /pickem/leaderboard/ page ranks all 27 models by cumulative HLTV-rule points, and each row is clickable for a per-event breakdown: who they picked, who they should have picked, and exactly how their score was assembled.

The leaderboard is permanent. Stage 2 results will roll in. So will every Major after that. The story of which AI model is actually the best at Pickem will be told over many events, not one.

What's next

Stage 2 predictions are already live — 27 models forecast the next Swiss bracket with the same 10,000-run Monte Carlo machinery, now informed by Stage 1's roster shake-up.
SURGE, our newest PRO model (launch post), is in the mix from Stage 2 onward — it uses a novel signal: the steepest player-level form trajectory on each side. It missed Stage 1 but you'll see it on the leaderboard going forward.
A user-facing Pickem contest (you make your own picks, models score alongside you) is in the pipeline.

tl;dr — Stage 1 favored the model that took a non-consensus swing. SENTINEL won by being the only model to call B8 perfect. The full leaderboard is at cs2predict.gg/pickem/leaderboard/.

Read more →

analysis Jun 01, 2026 by cs2predict

Top Models May → June 2026 — STRONGHOLD leads at 78.4%

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · June 2026

26

Models ranked

2456

Total predictions

139

Matches tracked

78.4%

Best accuracy

Based on May 2026 data, we tracked 139 top-tier CS2 matches across 26 prediction models with a total of 2456 predictions. The average model accuracy was 64.0%, with a spread of 27.6% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

STRONGHOLD takes the top spot with 78.4% accuracy, followed by TIER3 at 75.4% and TIER at 72.0%.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 78.4% accuracy across 37 predictions (29 correct, 8 wrong). Best week: W18 at 100.0%, weakest: W22 at 40.0%.

78.4%

Accuracy

37

Predictions

29

Correct

8

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 100.0% (3)W19: 100.0% (8)W20: 81.8% (11)W21: 70.0% (10)W22: 40.0% (5)

🥈

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed excellent performance with 75.4% accuracy across 57 predictions (43 correct, 14 wrong). Best week: W18 at 100.0%, weakest: W22 at 33.3%.

75.4%

Accuracy

57

Predictions

43

Correct

14

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 100.0% (4)W19: 75.0% (12)W20: 80.0% (20)W21: 72.2% (18)W22: 33.3% (3)

🥉

TIER

ELO for top-30 teams

TIER showed strong performance with 72.0% accuracy across 75 predictions (54 correct, 21 wrong). Best week: W18 at 80.0%, weakest: W22 at 37.5%.

72.0%

Accuracy

75

Predictions

54

Correct

21

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 80.0% (5)W19: 78.6% (14)W20: 80.0% (25)W21: 69.6% (23)W22: 37.5% (8)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	78.4%	37	29	8
#2	TIER3	75.4%	57	43	14
#3	TIER	72.0%	75	54	21
#4	TIER2	71.8%	78	56	22
#5	TRIBUNAL	70.4%	27	19	8
#6	WR10	68.6%	102	70	32
#7	SENTINEL	66.7%	9	6	3
#8	WR10C	65.6%	131	86	45
#9	ELOHQ	65.6%	96	63	33
#10	WR10P	63.4%	123	78	45
#11	NEXUS	63.3%	49	31	18
#12	SQUAD	63.2%	133	84	49
#13	OPEN	63.1%	111	70	41
#14	ELOFACE	62.5%	128	80	48
#15	XGPRO	62.4%	85	53	32
#16	MAJOR	62.4%	85	53	32
#17	ELO	61.8%	131	81	50
#18	STREAK	61.8%	76	47	29
#19	HIGH-ORACLE	61.4%	57	35	22
#20	MIND	60.2%	113	68	45
#21	PHANTOM	59.5%	126	75	51
#22	FORM	59.2%	120	71	49
#23	APEX	59.0%	134	79	55
#24	SOS	59.0%	122	72	50
#25	ORACLE	56.6%	129	73	56
#26	EAGLE	50.8%	122	62	60

Read more →

analysis Jun 01, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W22 → W23, 2026 — SQUAD (60.9%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 23 · May 25 – May 31, 2026

24

Models ranked

380

Predictions

23

Matches

60.9%

Best accuracy

0.2732

Brier Score

0.8257

Log Loss

This week (Week 23 · May 25 – May 31, 2026) we analyzed 23 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. SQUAD dominated with 60.9% accuracy (14/23 correct), ahead of MIND at 50.0%. SQUAD achieved a Brier Score of 0.2732 and Log Loss of 0.8257.

🏆 Model of the Week: SQUAD

SQUAD edged out the competition this week, though accuracy across all models was moderate.

🥇

SQUAD

Player ratings

SQUAD showed decent performance with 60.9% accuracy across 23 predictions (14 correct, 9 wrong).

60.9%

Accuracy

23

Predictions

14

Correct

9

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W22: 60.9% (23)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SQUAD	60.9%	23	14	9
#2	MIND	50.0%	18	9	9
#3	XGPRO	50.0%	16	8	8
#4	MAJOR	50.0%	16	8	8
#5	WR10	50.0%	14	7	7
#6	OPEN	47.1%	17	8	9
#7	WR10P	47.1%	17	8	9
#8	NEXUS	45.5%	11	5	6
#9	WR10C	42.9%	21	9	12
#10	SOS	42.1%	19	8	11
#11	HIGH-ORACLE	41.7%	12	5	7
#12	ELOFACE	40.0%	20	8	12
#13	PHANTOM	40.0%	20	8	12
#14	STRONGHOLD	40.0%	5	2	3
#15	APEX	39.1%	23	9	14
#16	TIER	37.5%	8	3	5
#17	TIER2	37.5%	8	3	5
#18	ELO	36.4%	22	8	14
#19	EAGLE	36.4%	22	8	14
#20	FORM	35.0%	20	7	13
#21	ORACLE	33.3%	21	7	14
#22	TIER3	33.3%	3	1	2
#23	ELOHQ	30.8%	13	4	9
#24	STREAK	27.3%	11	3	8

🎮 SQUAD Predictions This Week

14/23 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
FOKUS 2-1 Nemiga	90% FOKUS	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 0-2 Nemesis	81% Nemesis	CORRECT
TDK 2-1 OG	71% OG	WRONG
100 Thieves 1-2 Nemesis	67% Nemesis	CORRECT
magic 1-2 Ninjas in Pyjamas	72% Ninjas in	CORRECT
FOKUS 2-1 fnatic	77% FOKUS	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 2-0 GenOne	89% Gentle Mat	CORRECT
Ninjas in Pyjamas 2-0 FaZe	67% Ninjas in	CORRECT
Tricked 0-2 Nemiga	89% Nemiga	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 2-1 Eternal Fire	79% Gentle Mat	CORRECT
FaZe 2-0 Sharks	70% Sharks	WRONG
9z 1-2 FaZe	68% FaZe	CORRECT
Nemesis 2-3 TDK	88% Nemesis	WRONG
magic 2-1 FaZe	56% FaZe	WRONG
HEROIC 1-2 9z	72% HEROIC	WRONG
3DMAX 1-2 Alliance	93% 3DMAX	WRONG
9z 1-2 Sharks	83% Sharks	CORRECT
Eternal Fire 2-1 fnatic	77% fnatic	WRONG
FaZe 2-0 Alliance	61% Alliance	WRONG
Gentle Mates 2-0 ALGO	73% Gentle Mat	CORRECT
HEROIC 0-2 Ninjas in Pyjamas	64% Ninjas in	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 magic	96% 3DMAX	WRONG
fnatic 2-0 Rune Eaters	64% fnatic	CORRECT

🤔 Why every model struggled this week

60.9% as the best model is the lowest weekly leader we've ever recorded on cs2predict.gg — normal weeks see the top model land between 75% and 85%. The drop wasn't a data glitch (we verified every match against HLTV directly). It was a real upset wave driven by an unusually packed tournament calendar.

Three top-tier events ran in parallel this stretch:

CS Asia Championships 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026

Plus Major qualifiers leading into Cologne. Top organisations split rosters, tested experimental lineups, and showed visible signs of late-season fatigue. The result: 7 matches where every single one of 18–22 active models was wrong.

The 7 matches that broke the week

Match	Tournament	What happened
MongolZ vs B8	CS Asia Championships	B8 won 2-1 (huge upset)
MIBR vs PARIVISION	CS Asia Championships	MIBR ran out 2-0
NaVi vs Vitality	IEM Atlanta	NaVi took it 2-1
B8 vs FUT	IEM Atlanta	B8 won 2-0 again
PARIVISION vs G2	PGL Astana	G2 needed 3 maps
PARIVISION vs 9z	PGL Astana	9z swept 2-0
Aurora vs HEROIC	PGL Astana	HEROIC took it 2-0

The pattern: B8 (Ukrainian Tier-2) and PARIVISION (rising Russian roster) were involved in 5 of 7 of these matches. B8 ran the Cinderella story — taking down both MongolZ AND FUT in the same week.

Why SQUAD held up better

When ELO-based, rank-based, and form-based models all converge on the same prediction and are all wrong, the only model that can stand out is one looking at something different. SQUAD does exactly that: it weights individual player ratings rather than team-level rank.

For a week dominated by:

Rosters with new players (player ratings hadn't caught up to team rank)
Substitute lineups (team rank was misleading)
Tier-2 squads with strong individuals punching above their rank

SQUAD's player-first approach happened to fit. 60.9% isn't great absolutely — it's just that team-based models did far worse, because their signals were polluted by mid-tournament roster changes.

What this means going forward

CS2's 2026 calendar is more packed than ever. When 3+ tournaments overlap, expect lower model agreement, more upsets in matches where rosters changed mid-week, and player-based models (SQUAD, WR10) gaining a temporary edge.

We're not adjusting any model weights based on a single week — that would be classic over-fitting. But it's a useful reminder: models are statistical, not magical. Stable meta produces high accuracy. Chaotic weeks produce chaotic predictions.

Major Cologne Stage 1 kicks off this week (June 2). It'll be interesting to see how models behave once the scene refocuses on one big event.

Read more →

analysis May 25, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W21 → W22, 2026 — WR10P (75.8%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 22 · May 18 – May 24, 2026

25

Models ranked

648

Predictions

34

Matches

75.8%

Best accuracy

0.1981

Brier Score

0.5864

Log Loss

This week (Week 22 · May 18 – May 24, 2026) we analyzed 34 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. WR10P dominated with 75.8% accuracy (25/33 correct), ahead of TRIBUNAL at 75.0%. WR10P achieved a Brier Score of 0.1981 and Log Loss of 0.5864.

🏆 Model of the Week: WR10P

WR10P had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 25 out of 33 matches.

🥇

WR10P

Pure win rate vs top-10

WR10P showed excellent performance with 75.8% accuracy across 33 predictions (25 correct, 8 wrong).

75.8%

Accuracy

33

Predictions

25

Correct

8

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W21: 75.8% (33)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	WR10P	75.8%	33	25	8
#2	TRIBUNAL	75.0%	16	12	4
#3	WR10	74.1%	27	20	7
#4	TIER3	72.2%	18	13	5
#5	STRONGHOLD	70.0%	10	7	3
#6	NEXUS	70.0%	10	7	3
#7	ORACLE	69.7%	33	23	10
#8	TIER	69.6%	23	16	7
#9	TIER2	69.6%	23	16	7
#10	PHANTOM	69.0%	29	20	9
#11	WR10C	68.8%	32	22	10
#12	ELOHQ	68.0%	25	17	8
#13	APEX	66.7%	33	22	11
#14	SOS	66.7%	30	20	10
#15	STREAK	65.2%	23	15	8
#16	FORM	64.5%	31	20	11
#17	MIND	64.3%	28	18	10
#18	ELO	63.6%	33	21	12
#19	ELOFACE	63.6%	33	21	12
#20	EAGLE	63.3%	30	19	11
#21	XGPRO	63.0%	27	17	10
#22	MAJOR	63.0%	27	17	10
#23	OPEN	62.1%	29	18	11
#24	HIGH-ORACLE	61.5%	13	8	5
#25	SQUAD	56.2%	32	18	14

🎮 WR10P Predictions This Week

25/33 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
EYEBALLERS 1-2 Alliance	62% Alliance	CORRECT
Wildcard 2-1 FOKUS	73% FOKUS	WRONG
FOKUS 2-1 Inner Circle	62% FOKUS	CORRECT
Falcons 1-3 Legacy	55% Legacy	CORRECT
MOUZ 2-0 MIBR	53% MOUZ	CORRECT
Alliance 0-2 EYEBALLERS	62% Alliance	WRONG
MIBR 0-2 Legacy	55% Legacy	CORRECT
Legacy 2-1 The MongolZ	60% Legacy	CORRECT
B8 0-2 MOUZ	63% MOUZ	CORRECT
The MongolZ 2-0 PARIVISION	63% PARIVISION	WRONG
MOUZ 2-0 paiN	71% MOUZ	CORRECT
MIBR 2-1 B8	61% MIBR	CORRECT
Falcons 2-0 Legacy	58% Legacy	WRONG
TYLOO 1-2 paiN	56% paiN	CORRECT
PARIVISION 2-0 Lynn Vision	65% PARIVISION	CORRECT
The MongolZ 2-1 Liquid	66% The Mongol	CORRECT
M80 1-2 MOUZ	77% MOUZ	CORRECT
Lynn Vision 2-1 Ninjas in Pyjamas	62% Lynn Visio	CORRECT
BC.Game 0-2 paiN	56% paiN	CORRECT
3DMAX 1-2 Liquid	58% 3DMAX	WRONG
NRG 1-2 MOUZ	77% MOUZ	CORRECT
Legacy 2-0 TYLOO	73% Legacy	CORRECT
Falcons 2-0 M80	65% Falcons	CORRECT
The MongolZ 1-2 B8	53% The Mongol	WRONG
MIBR 2-0 PARIVISION	53% PARIVISION	WRONG
Falcons 13-11 BC.Game	71% Falcons	CORRECT
paiN 8-13 M80	54% M80	CORRECT
Legacy 13-10 NRG	73% Legacy	CORRECT
MOUZ 7-13 TYLOO	77% MOUZ	WRONG
B8 13-9 Ninjas in Pyjamas	62% B8	CORRECT
The MongolZ 13-3 Lynn Vision	55% The Mongol	CORRECT
3DMAX 9-13 MIBR	67% MIBR	CORRECT
PARIVISION 13-9 Liquid	75% PARIVISION	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis May 18, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W20 → W21, 2026 — STRONGHOLD (81.8%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 21 · May 11 – May 17, 2026

25

Models ranked

958

Predictions

57

Matches

81.8%

Best accuracy

0.1542

Brier Score

0.4943

Log Loss

This week (Week 21 · May 11 – May 17, 2026) we analyzed 57 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 81.8% accuracy (9/11 correct), ahead of TIER at 80.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1542 and Log Loss of 0.4943.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 9 out of 11 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 81.8% accuracy across 11 predictions (9 correct, 2 wrong).

81.8%

Accuracy

11

Predictions

9

Correct

2

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W20: 81.8% (11)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	81.8%	11	9	2
#2	TIER	80.0%	25	20	5
#3	TIER3	80.0%	20	16	4
#4	TIER2	77.8%	27	21	6
#5	WR10	75.0%	44	33	11
#6	MIND	70.2%	47	33	14
#7	WR10C	69.8%	53	37	16
#8	ELOHQ	69.4%	36	25	11
#9	OPEN	68.1%	47	32	15
#10	WR10P	66.7%	51	34	17
#11	TRIBUNAL	66.7%	9	6	3
#12	SQUAD	66.0%	53	35	18
#13	FORM	65.3%	49	32	17
#14	XGPRO	64.5%	31	20	11
#15	MAJOR	64.5%	31	20	11
#16	STREAK	63.6%	33	21	12
#17	ELO	63.5%	52	33	19
#18	ELOFACE	62.7%	51	32	19
#19	SOS	55.1%	49	27	22
#20	APEX	52.8%	53	28	25
#21	PHANTOM	52.8%	53	28	25
#22	HIGH-ORACLE	52.6%	19	10	9
#23	NEXUS	50.0%	16	8	8
#24	ORACLE	47.1%	51	24	27
#25	EAGLE	40.4%	47	19	28

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

9/11 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
GamerLegion 0-3 Natus Vincere	68% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
BetBoom 0-2 Natus Vincere	77% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
B8 0-2 Vitality	80% Vitality	CORRECT
SINNERS 0-2 Astralis	70% Astralis	CORRECT
FaZe 0-2 Vitality	81% Vitality	CORRECT
BetBoom 2-1 Vitality	83% Vitality	WRONG
Natus Vincere 2-1 GamerLegion	69% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Monte 2-1 The Huns	67% Monte	CORRECT
HEROIC 1-2 magic	62% HEROIC	WRONG
Natus Vincere 2-0 Passion UA	74% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 BC.Game	84% Vitality	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis May 11, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W19 → W20, 2026 — STRONGHOLD (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 20 · May 04 – May 10, 2026

25

Models ranked

304

Predictions

16

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0677

Brier Score

0.2985

Log Loss

This week (Week 20 · May 04 – May 10, 2026) we analyzed 16 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (8/8 correct), ahead of HIGH-ORACLE at 100.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0677 and Log Loss of 0.2985.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 8 out of 8 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 8 predictions (8 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

8

Predictions

8

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W19: 100.0% (8)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	8	8	0
#2	HIGH-ORACLE	100.0%	7	7	0
#3	NEXUS	100.0%	7	7	0
#4	SENTINEL	100.0%	5	5	0
#5	ELO	81.2%	16	13	3
#6	ELOFACE	81.2%	16	13	3
#7	WR10C	81.2%	16	13	3
#8	APEX	81.2%	16	13	3
#9	PHANTOM	81.2%	16	13	3
#10	ORACLE	80.0%	15	12	3
#11	TIER2	80.0%	15	12	3
#12	ELOHQ	80.0%	15	12	3
#13	TIER	78.6%	14	11	3
#14	EAGLE	75.0%	16	12	4
#15	TIER3	75.0%	12	9	3
#16	XGPRO	71.4%	7	5	2
#17	MAJOR	71.4%	7	5	2
#18	SQUAD	68.8%	16	11	5
#19	SOS	66.7%	15	10	5
#20	FORM	66.7%	12	8	4
#21	STREAK	66.7%	3	2	1
#22	OPEN	60.0%	10	6	4
#23	WR10	54.5%	11	6	5
#24	WR10P	50.0%	16	8	8
#25	MIND	23.1%	13	3	10

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

8/8 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Monte 2-0 magic	65% Monte	CORRECT
PARIVISION 2-0 Fisher College	75% PARIVISION	CORRECT
Aurora 2-0 The Huns	76% Aurora	CORRECT
Falcons 2-0 K27	78% Falcons	CORRECT
Spirit 2-0 The Huns	79% Spirit	CORRECT
MOUZ 2-1 Gentle Mates	72% MOUZ	CORRECT
The MongolZ 2-0 magic	76% The Mongol	CORRECT
G2 2-0 Fisher College	73% G2	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis May 04, 2026 by cs2predict

Top Models April → May 2026 — TRIBUNAL leads at 100.0%

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · May 2026

27

Models ranked

2520

Total predictions

174

Matches tracked

100.0%

Best accuracy

Based on April 2026 data, we tracked 174 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models with a total of 2520 predictions. The average model accuracy was 72.3%, with a spread of 53.0% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

TRIBUNAL takes the top spot with 100.0% accuracy, followed by NEXUS at 97.1% and SENTINEL at 92.3%.

🥇

TRIBUNAL

OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

TRIBUNAL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 20 predictions (20 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

20

Predictions

20

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W14: 100.0% (9)W15: 100.0% (5)W16: 100.0% (4)W18: 100.0% (2)

🥈

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 97.1% accuracy across 35 predictions (34 correct, 1 wrong). Best week: W14 at 100.0%, weakest: W18 at 75.0%.

97.1%

Accuracy

35

Predictions

34

Correct

1

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W14: 100.0% (10)W15: 100.0% (2)W16: 100.0% (10)W17: 100.0% (9)W18: 75.0% (4)

🥉

SENTINEL

Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction

SENTINEL showed excellent performance with 92.3% accuracy across 26 predictions (24 correct, 2 wrong). Best week: W15 at 100.0%, weakest: W14 at 90.5%.

92.3%

Accuracy

26

Predictions

24

Correct

2

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W14: 90.5% (21)W15: 100.0% (1)W16: 100.0% (1)W17: 100.0% (3)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	20	20	0
#2	NEXUS	97.1%	35	34	1
#3	SENTINEL	92.3%	26	24	2
#4	STRONGHOLD	91.1%	45	41	4
#5	TIER3	86.4%	44	38	6
#6	VANGUARD	85.7%	14	12	2
#7	HIGH-ORACLE	85.3%	34	29	5
#8	TIER	82.7%	75	62	13
#9	ELOHQ	79.8%	94	75	19
#10	TIER2	78.3%	83	65	18
#11	ORACLE	74.7%	91	68	23
#12	APEX	73.9%	92	68	24
#13	SOS	73.5%	136	100	36
#14	PHANTOM	73.3%	90	66	24
#15	ELOFACE	70.0%	130	91	39
#16	ELO	68.5%	143	98	45
#17	STREAK	65.6%	90	59	31
#18	WR10	63.7%	113	72	41
#19	EAGLE	62.6%	91	57	34
#20	MAJOR	61.2%	116	71	45
#21	XGPRO	60.9%	115	70	45
#22	WR10C	60.3%	156	94	62
#23	OPEN	60.3%	131	79	52
#24	SQUAD	57.2%	166	95	71
#25	FORM	50.4%	133	67	66
#26	WR10P	49.6%	125	62	63
#27	MIND	47.0%	132	62	70

Read more →

analysis May 04, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W18 → W19, 2026 — STRONGHOLD (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 19 · Apr 27 – May 03, 2026

24

Models ranked

352

Predictions

20

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0822

Brier Score

0.334

Log Loss

This week (Week 19 · Apr 27 – May 03, 2026) we analyzed 20 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (7/7 correct), ahead of STREAK at 91.7%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0822 and Log Loss of 0.334.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 7 out of 7 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 7 predictions (7 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

7

Predictions

7

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 100.0% (7)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	7	7	0
#2	STREAK	91.7%	12	11	1
#3	TIER3	77.8%	9	7	2
#4	XGPRO	77.8%	9	7	2
#5	MAJOR	77.8%	9	7	2
#6	NEXUS	77.8%	9	7	2
#7	ELO	76.5%	17	13	4
#8	ELOFACE	75.0%	16	12	4
#9	TIER	75.0%	12	9	3
#10	TIER2	75.0%	12	9	3
#11	SOS	73.7%	19	14	5
#12	APEX	72.2%	18	13	5
#13	ELOHQ	71.4%	14	10	4
#14	WR10	71.4%	14	10	4
#15	SQUAD	70.0%	20	14	6
#16	HIGH-ORACLE	70.0%	10	7	3
#17	OPEN	68.4%	19	13	6
#18	MIND	66.7%	18	12	6
#19	PHANTOM	66.7%	18	12	6
#20	ORACLE	63.2%	19	12	7
#21	WR10C	60.0%	20	12	8
#22	WR10P	60.0%	15	9	6
#23	FORM	57.9%	19	11	8
#24	EAGLE	41.2%	17	7	10

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

7/7 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Vitality 2-0 GamerLegion	79% Vitality	CORRECT
Natus Vincere 2-0 FaZe	71% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Natus Vincere 2-0 GamerLegion	68% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Vitality 2-1 G2	75% Vitality	CORRECT
Natus Vincere 2-0 FaZe	71% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Vitality 2-1 FUT	76% Vitality	CORRECT
Legacy 3-2 9z	62% Legacy	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis Apr 27, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W18 — NEXUS (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 18 · Apr 20 – Apr 27, 2026

24

Models ranked

205

Predictions

13

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0664

Brier Score

0.2942

Log Loss

This week (Week 18 · Apr 20 – Apr 27, 2026) we analyzed 13 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (9/9 correct), ahead of HIGH-ORACLE at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0664 and Log Loss of 0.2942.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 9 out of 9 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 9 predictions (9 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

9

Predictions

9

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W17: 100.0% (9)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	9	9	0
#2	HIGH-ORACLE	100.0%	8	8	0
#3	ELOHQ	100.0%	4	4	0
#4	TIER	100.0%	4	4	0
#5	TIER2	100.0%	4	4	0
#6	SENTINEL	100.0%	3	3	0
#7	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	3	3	0
#8	PHANTOM	90.0%	10	9	1
#9	ORACLE	81.8%	11	9	2
#10	EAGLE	81.8%	11	9	2
#11	ELOFACE	77.8%	9	7	2
#12	SQUAD	75.0%	12	9	3
#13	SOS	75.0%	12	9	3
#14	APEX	75.0%	12	9	3
#15	ELO	72.7%	11	8	3
#16	WR10C	46.2%	13	6	7
#17	FORM	36.4%	11	4	7
#18	OPEN	30.0%	10	3	7
#19	XGPRO	25.0%	8	2	6
#20	MAJOR	25.0%	8	2	6
#21	WR10	25.0%	8	2	6
#22	WR10P	22.2%	9	2	7
#23	MIND	16.7%	12	2	10
#24	STREAK	0.0%	3	0	3

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

9/9 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
TYLOO 1-0 Sensation	76% TYLOO	CORRECT
9z 2-0 Vasco	74% 9z	CORRECT
Wildcard 2-0 FRZ	68% Wildcard	CORRECT
BIG 0-2 HEROIC	68% HEROIC	CORRECT
Alliance 2-0 Oxuji	69% Alliance	CORRECT
Legacy 2-0 Keyd Stars	78% Legacy	CORRECT
9z 2-0 Vasco	80% 9z	CORRECT
Legacy 2-0 ALZON	78% Legacy	CORRECT
9z 2-0 ALKA	80% 9z	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis Apr 20, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W17 — NEXUS (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 17 · Apr 13 – Apr 20, 2026

25

Models ranked

520

Predictions

30

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0884

Brier Score

0.3524

Log Loss

This week (Week 17 · Apr 13 – Apr 20, 2026) we analyzed 30 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (10/10 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0884 and Log Loss of 0.3524.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 10 out of 10 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 10 predictions (10 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

10

Predictions

10

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W16: 100.0% (10)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	10	10	0
#2	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	7	7	0
#3	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	4	4	0
#4	TIER3	93.8%	16	15	1
#5	ELOHQ	90.9%	22	20	2
#6	TIER2	89.5%	19	17	2
#7	TIER	88.9%	18	16	2
#8	HIGH-ORACLE	87.5%	8	7	1
#9	APEX	85.2%	27	23	4
#10	SOS	80.0%	25	20	5
#11	ELO	79.3%	29	23	6
#12	ELOFACE	78.6%	28	22	6
#13	PHANTOM	78.6%	28	22	6
#14	ORACLE	78.6%	28	22	6
#15	WR10C	73.3%	30	22	8
#16	WR10P	73.1%	26	19	7
#17	EAGLE	72.0%	25	18	7
#18	STREAK	71.4%	14	10	4
#19	WR10	70.8%	24	17	7
#20	SQUAD	70.4%	27	19	8
#21	MAJOR	64.7%	17	11	6
#22	FORM	62.5%	24	15	9
#23	XGPRO	62.5%	16	10	6
#24	OPEN	60.0%	25	15	10
#25	MIND	56.5%	23	13	10

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

10/10 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Spirit 0-3 Vitality	71% Vitality	CORRECT
FURIA 0-2 Vitality	68% Vitality	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere	72% Vitality	CORRECT
HEROIC 1-0 illwill	73% HEROIC	CORRECT
RED Canids 1-2 Spirit	68% Spirit	CORRECT
FURIA 2-0 Passion UA	71% FURIA	CORRECT
Legacy 1-2 MOUZ	72% MOUZ	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 Falcons	70% Falcons	CORRECT
Spirit 2-0 Liquid	68% Spirit	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 1-2 G2	71% G2	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis Apr 13, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W16 — NEXUS (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026

25

Models ranked

858

Predictions

50

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0893

Brier Score

0.3546

Log Loss

This week (Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026) we analyzed 50 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (12/12 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0893 and Log Loss of 0.3546.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 12 out of 12 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 12 predictions (12 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

12

Predictions

12

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W15: 100.0% (2)W16: 100.0% (10)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	12	12	0
#2	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	9	9	0
#3	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	9	9	0
#4	TIER3	95.2%	21	20	1
#5	TIER2	86.2%	29	25	4
#6	TIER	85.7%	28	24	4
#7	HIGH-ORACLE	83.3%	12	10	2
#8	ELOHQ	82.9%	35	29	6
#9	APEX	77.8%	45	35	10
#10	ORACLE	77.3%	44	34	10
#11	PHANTOM	76.7%	43	33	10
#12	SOS	76.2%	42	32	10
#13	ELO	76.1%	46	35	11
#14	ELOFACE	74.4%	43	32	11
#15	WR10	71.1%	38	27	11
#16	STREAK	70.4%	27	19	8
#17	WR10C	67.3%	49	33	16
#18	WR10P	65.9%	44	29	15
#19	EAGLE	65.1%	43	28	15
#20	MAJOR	64.7%	34	22	12
#21	FORM	64.3%	42	27	15
#22	XGPRO	63.6%	33	21	12
#23	OPEN	61.0%	41	25	16
#24	SQUAD	59.6%	47	28	19
#25	MIND	59.5%	42	25	17

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

12/12 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Spirit 0-3 Vitality	71% Vitality	CORRECT
FURIA 0-2 Vitality	68% Vitality	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere	72% Vitality	CORRECT
HEROIC 1-0 illwill	73% HEROIC	CORRECT
RED Canids 1-2 Spirit	68% Spirit	CORRECT
FURIA 2-0 Passion UA	71% FURIA	CORRECT
Legacy 1-2 MOUZ	72% MOUZ	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 Falcons	70% Falcons	CORRECT
Spirit 2-0 Liquid	68% Spirit	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 1-2 G2	71% G2	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 The MongolZ	69% The Mongol	CORRECT
BC.Game 2-1 Voca	70% BC.Game	CORRECT

Read more →

analysis Apr 06, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W15 — NEXUS (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 15 · Mar 30 – Apr 06, 2026

27

Models ranked

2658

Predictions

193

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0861

Brier Score

0.3457

Log Loss

This week (Week 15 · Mar 30 – Apr 06, 2026) we analyzed 193 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (22/22 correct), ahead of TRIBUNAL at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0861 and Log Loss of 0.3457.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 22 out of 22 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 22 predictions (22 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

22

Predictions

22

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W14: 100.0% (10)W15: 100.0% (2)W16: 100.0% (10)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	22	22	0
#2	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	18	18	0
#3	HIGH-ORACLE	86.4%	22	19	3
#4	TIER3	84.1%	44	37	7
#5	VANGUARD	83.3%	24	20	4
#6	SENTINEL	82.1%	39	32	7
#7	STRONGHOLD	81.0%	58	47	11
#8	TIER	79.7%	79	63	16
#9	ORACLE	77.1%	70	54	16
#10	ELOHQ	76.9%	104	80	24
#11	TIER2	75.0%	88	66	22
#12	APEX	74.6%	71	53	18
#13	PHANTOM	72.9%	70	51	19
#14	SOS	67.5%	151	102	49
#15	ELOFACE	65.3%	144	94	50
#16	STREAK	64.5%	110	71	39
#17	EAGLE	64.3%	70	45	25
#18	ELO	64.1%	156	100	56
#19	WR10	64.0%	125	80	45
#20	WR10C	60.5%	167	101	66
#21	MAJOR	60.1%	138	83	55
#22	OPEN	60.0%	145	87	58
#23	XGPRO	59.9%	137	82	55
#24	SQUAD	54.3%	186	101	85
#25	FORM	50.3%	145	73	72
#26	WR10P	48.1%	133	64	69
#27	MIND	45.1%	142	64	78

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

22/22 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Spirit 0-3 Vitality	71% Vitality	CORRECT
FURIA 0-2 Vitality	68% Vitality	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere	72% Vitality	CORRECT
HEROIC 1-0 illwill	73% HEROIC	CORRECT
RED Canids 1-2 Spirit	68% Spirit	CORRECT
FURIA 2-0 Passion UA	71% FURIA	CORRECT
Legacy 1-2 MOUZ	72% MOUZ	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 Falcons	70% Falcons	CORRECT
Spirit 2-0 Liquid	68% Spirit	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 1-2 G2	71% G2	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 The MongolZ	69% The Mongol	CORRECT
BC.Game 2-1 Voca	70% BC.Game	CORRECT
paiN 3-1 Gaimin Gladiators	72% paiN	CORRECT
PARIVISION 2-0 FOKUS	74% PARIVISION	CORRECT
3DMAX 2-1 Voca	74% 3DMAX	CORRECT
FaZe 2-0 CYBERSHOKE	68% FaZe	CORRECT
PARIVISION 2-1 Legacy	69% PARIVISION	CORRECT
paiN 2-1 ShindeN	81% paiN	CORRECT
GamerLegion 0-2 BetBoom	68% BetBoom	CORRECT
Astralis 2-0 MIBR	68% Astralis	CORRECT
B8 2-0 Wildcard	68% B8	CORRECT
NRG 2-0 Voca	77% NRG	CORRECT

Read more →

Blog

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Why the "Model of the Week" isn't ranked this time

What ran during the week

Coming up

🏆 Model of the Week: SURGE

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 SURGE Predictions This Week

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

Stage 2 results

🏆 TIERELO ran the table — 12/15

Stage 2 leaderboard (top 6)

Cumulative leaderboard (after Stage 2)

🔮 Stage 3 is live — predictions open

🏆 Model of the Week: VANGUARD

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 VANGUARD Predictions This Week

The actual Stage 1 outcome

The big upset: HEROIC

Top scorers — Stage 1

Introducing the Pickem Leaderboard

What's next

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

🏆 Model of the Week: SQUAD

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 SQUAD Predictions This Week

🤔 Why every model struggled this week

The 7 matches that broke the week

Why SQUAD held up better

What this means going forward

🏆 Model of the Week: WR10P

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 WR10P Predictions This Week

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

📊 Full Rankings This Week

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week