News, updates and analysis
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 21 · May 11 – May 17, 2026
This week (Week 21 · May 11 – May 17, 2026) we analyzed 57 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 81.8% accuracy (9/11 correct), ahead of TIER at 80.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1542 and Log Loss of 0.4943.
STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 9 out of 11 matches.
STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 81.8% accuracy across 11 predictions (9 correct, 2 wrong).


Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

9/11 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| GamerLegion 0-3 Natus Vincere | 68% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| BetBoom 0-2 Natus Vincere | 77% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| B8 0-2 Vitality | 80% Vitality | CORRECT |
| SINNERS 0-2 Astralis | 70% Astralis | CORRECT |
| FaZe 0-2 Vitality | 81% Vitality | CORRECT |
| BetBoom 2-1 Vitality | 83% Vitality | WRONG |
| Natus Vincere 2-1 GamerLegion | 69% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Monte 2-1 The Huns | 67% Monte | CORRECT |
| HEROIC 1-2 magic | 62% HEROIC | WRONG |
| Natus Vincere 2-0 Passion UA | 74% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-0 BC.Game | 84% Vitality | CORRECT |
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 20 · May 04 – May 10, 2026
This week (Week 20 · May 04 – May 10, 2026) we analyzed 16 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (8/8 correct), ahead of HIGH-ORACLE at 100.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0677 and Log Loss of 0.2985.
STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 8 out of 8 matches.
STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 8 predictions (8 correct, 0 wrong).


Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

8/8 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Monte 2-0 magic | 65% Monte | CORRECT |
| PARIVISION 2-0 Fisher College | 75% PARIVISION | CORRECT |
| Aurora 2-0 The Huns | 76% Aurora | CORRECT |
| Falcons 2-0 K27 | 78% Falcons | CORRECT |
| Spirit 2-0 The Huns | 79% Spirit | CORRECT |
| MOUZ 2-1 Gentle Mates | 72% MOUZ | CORRECT |
| The MongolZ 2-0 magic | 76% The Mongol | CORRECT |
| G2 2-0 Fisher College | 73% G2 | CORRECT |
Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · May 2026
Based on April 2026 data, we tracked 174 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models with a total of 2520 predictions. The average model accuracy was 72.3%, with a spread of 53.0% between the best and worst performing models.
TRIBUNAL takes the top spot with 100.0% accuracy, followed by NEXUS at 97.1% and SENTINEL at 92.3%.
TRIBUNAL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 20 predictions (20 correct, 0 wrong).


NEXUS showed excellent performance with 97.1% accuracy across 35 predictions (34 correct, 1 wrong). Best week: W14 at 100.0%, weakest: W18 at 75.0%.


SENTINEL showed excellent performance with 92.3% accuracy across 26 predictions (24 correct, 2 wrong). Best week: W15 at 100.0%, weakest: W14 at 90.5%.


Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 19 · Apr 27 – May 03, 2026
This week (Week 19 · Apr 27 – May 03, 2026) we analyzed 20 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (7/7 correct), ahead of STREAK at 91.7%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0822 and Log Loss of 0.334.
STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 7 out of 7 matches.
STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 7 predictions (7 correct, 0 wrong).


Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

7/7 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Vitality 2-0 GamerLegion | 79% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Natus Vincere 2-0 FaZe | 71% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Natus Vincere 2-0 GamerLegion | 68% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-1 G2 | 75% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Natus Vincere 2-0 FaZe | 71% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-1 FUT | 76% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Legacy 3-2 9z | 62% Legacy | CORRECT |
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 18 · Apr 20 – Apr 27, 2026
This week (Week 18 · Apr 20 – Apr 27, 2026) we analyzed 13 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (9/9 correct), ahead of HIGH-ORACLE at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0664 and Log Loss of 0.2942.
NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 9 out of 9 matches.
NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 9 predictions (9 correct, 0 wrong).
Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.
9/9 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| TYLOO 1-0 Sensation | 76% TYLOO | CORRECT |
| 9z 2-0 Vasco | 74% 9z | CORRECT |
| Wildcard 2-0 FRZ | 68% Wildcard | CORRECT |
| BIG 0-2 HEROIC | 68% HEROIC | CORRECT |
| Alliance 2-0 Oxuji | 69% Alliance | CORRECT |
| Legacy 2-0 Keyd Stars | 78% Legacy | CORRECT |
| 9z 2-0 Vasco | 80% 9z | CORRECT |
| Legacy 2-0 ALZON | 78% Legacy | CORRECT |
| 9z 2-0 ALKA | 80% 9z | CORRECT |
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 17 · Apr 13 – Apr 20, 2026
This week (Week 17 · Apr 13 – Apr 20, 2026) we analyzed 30 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (10/10 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0884 and Log Loss of 0.3524.
NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 10 out of 10 matches.
NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 10 predictions (10 correct, 0 wrong).
Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.
10/10 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Spirit 0-3 Vitality | 71% Vitality | CORRECT |
| FURIA 0-2 Vitality | 68% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere | 72% Vitality | CORRECT |
| HEROIC 1-0 illwill | 73% HEROIC | CORRECT |
| RED Canids 1-2 Spirit | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| FURIA 2-0 Passion UA | 71% FURIA | CORRECT |
| Legacy 1-2 MOUZ | 72% MOUZ | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 0-2 Falcons | 70% Falcons | CORRECT |
| Spirit 2-0 Liquid | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| Gentle Mates 1-2 G2 | 71% G2 | CORRECT |
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026
This week (Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026) we analyzed 50 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (12/12 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0893 and Log Loss of 0.3546.
NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 12 out of 12 matches.
NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 12 predictions (12 correct, 0 wrong).
Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.
12/12 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Spirit 0-3 Vitality | 71% Vitality | CORRECT |
| FURIA 0-2 Vitality | 68% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere | 72% Vitality | CORRECT |
| HEROIC 1-0 illwill | 73% HEROIC | CORRECT |
| RED Canids 1-2 Spirit | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| FURIA 2-0 Passion UA | 71% FURIA | CORRECT |
| Legacy 1-2 MOUZ | 72% MOUZ | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 0-2 Falcons | 70% Falcons | CORRECT |
| Spirit 2-0 Liquid | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| Gentle Mates 1-2 G2 | 71% G2 | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 0-2 The MongolZ | 69% The Mongol | CORRECT |
| BC.Game 2-1 Voca | 70% BC.Game | CORRECT |
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 15 · Mar 30 – Apr 06, 2026
This week (Week 15 · Mar 30 – Apr 06, 2026) we analyzed 193 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (22/22 correct), ahead of TRIBUNAL at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0861 and Log Loss of 0.3457.
NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 22 out of 22 matches.
NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 22 predictions (22 correct, 0 wrong).
Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.
22/22 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Spirit 0-3 Vitality | 71% Vitality | CORRECT |
| FURIA 0-2 Vitality | 68% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere | 72% Vitality | CORRECT |
| HEROIC 1-0 illwill | 73% HEROIC | CORRECT |
| RED Canids 1-2 Spirit | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| FURIA 2-0 Passion UA | 71% FURIA | CORRECT |
| Legacy 1-2 MOUZ | 72% MOUZ | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 0-2 Falcons | 70% Falcons | CORRECT |
| Spirit 2-0 Liquid | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| Gentle Mates 1-2 G2 | 71% G2 | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 0-2 The MongolZ | 69% The Mongol | CORRECT |
| BC.Game 2-1 Voca | 70% BC.Game | CORRECT |
| paiN 3-1 Gaimin Gladiators | 72% paiN | CORRECT |
| PARIVISION 2-0 FOKUS | 74% PARIVISION | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 2-1 Voca | 74% 3DMAX | CORRECT |
| FaZe 2-0 CYBERSHOKE | 68% FaZe | CORRECT |
| PARIVISION 2-1 Legacy | 69% PARIVISION | CORRECT |
| paiN 2-1 ShindeN | 81% paiN | CORRECT |
| GamerLegion 0-2 BetBoom | 68% BetBoom | CORRECT |
| Astralis 2-0 MIBR | 68% Astralis | CORRECT |
| B8 2-0 Wildcard | 68% B8 | CORRECT |
| NRG 2-0 Voca | 77% NRG | CORRECT |