Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 37 · Aug 31 – Sep 06, 2026

This week (Week 37 · Aug 31 – Sep 06, 2026) we analyzed 96 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. TIER3 dominated with 85.7% accuracy (12/14 correct), ahead of ELOHQ at 72.7%. TIER3 achieved a Brier Score of 0.234 and Log Loss of 0.6611.

🏆 Model of the Week: TIER3

TIER3 had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 12 out of 14 matches.

🥇

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed excellent performance with 85.7% accuracy across 14 predictions (12 correct, 2 wrong).

85.7%

Accuracy

14

Predictions

12

Correct

2

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W36: 85.7% (14)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER3	85.7%	14	12	2
#2	ELOHQ	72.7%	55	40	15
#3	VANGUARD	72.0%	25	18	7
#4	ELOFACE	69.9%	83	58	25
#5	TIER2	69.4%	36	25	11
#6	ELO	67.0%	88	59	29
#7	TIER	64.7%	34	22	12
#8	WR10C	64.5%	93	60	33
#9	APEX	63.1%	84	53	31
#10	ORACLE	62.9%	89	56	33
#11	STREAK	61.9%	42	26	16
#12	EAGLE	61.7%	81	50	31
#13	SURGE	61.0%	77	47	30
#14	WR10P	60.9%	46	28	18
#15	PHANTOM	60.2%	83	50	33
#16	SENTINEL	60.0%	5	3	2
#17	FORM	59.2%	76	45	31
#18	HIGH-ORACLE	57.9%	19	11	8
#19	OPEN	56.8%	81	46	35
#20	SQUAD	56.4%	78	44	34
#21	WR10	56.2%	32	18	14
#22	TRIBUNAL	54.5%	22	12	10
#23	MIND	54.3%	70	38	32
#24	SOS	53.5%	71	38	33
#25	NEXUS	53.3%	15	8	7
#26	XGPRO	50.0%	72	36	36
#27	MAJOR	50.0%	72	36	36
#28	STRONGHOLD	50.0%	10	5	5

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · September 2026

Based on August 2026 data, we tracked 213 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models with a total of 3521 predictions. The average model accuracy was 72.2%, with a spread of 54.2% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

SENTINEL takes the top spot with 100.0% accuracy, followed by VANGUARD at 87.1% and NEXUS at 86.1%.

🥇

SENTINEL

Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction

SENTINEL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 17 predictions (17 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

17

Predictions

17

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W32: 100.0% (13)W33: 100.0% (2)W35: 100.0% (1)W36: 100.0% (1)

🥈

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed excellent performance with 87.1% accuracy across 85 predictions (74 correct, 11 wrong). Best week: W36 at 100.0%, weakest: W31 at 75.0%.

87.1%

Accuracy

85

Predictions

74

Correct

11

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W31: 75.0% (4)W32: 97.0% (33)W33: 77.3% (22)W34: 75.0% (8)W35: 88.2% (17)W36: 100.0% (1)

🥉

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 86.1% accuracy across 72 predictions (62 correct, 10 wrong). Best week: W31 at 100.0%, weakest: W36 at 0.0%.

86.1%

Accuracy

72

Predictions

62

Correct

10

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W31: 100.0% (2)W32: 96.3% (27)W33: 77.3% (22)W34: 100.0% (6)W35: 78.6% (14)W36: 0.0% (1)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SENTINEL	100.0%	17	17	0
#2	VANGUARD	87.1%	85	74	11
#3	NEXUS	86.1%	72	62	10
#4	HIGH-ORACLE	85.7%	84	72	12
#5	STRONGHOLD	84.1%	44	37	7
#6	TRIBUNAL	83.7%	43	36	7
#7	ELOHQ	83.1%	124	103	21
#8	ORACLE	77.3%	194	150	44
#9	APEX	77.0%	191	147	44
#10	TIER3	76.6%	64	49	15
#11	PHANTOM	76.2%	189	144	45
#12	TIER	76.1%	88	67	21
#13	EAGLE	75.3%	178	134	44
#14	TIER2	75.3%	93	70	23
#15	ELOFACE	74.9%	179	134	45
#16	ELO	74.1%	185	137	48
#17	SOS	73.4%	173	127	46
#18	WR10C	70.4%	196	138	58
#19	STREAK	66.7%	75	50	25
#20	SQUAD	63.8%	185	118	67
#21	XGPRO	63.6%	129	82	47
#22	MAJOR	63.6%	129	82	47
#23	OPEN	59.6%	146	87	59
#24	FORM	57.5%	160	92	68
#25	WR10P	56.2%	105	59	46
#26	WR10	55.6%	90	50	40
#27	SURGE	53.3%	150	80	70
#28	MIND	45.8%	153	70	83

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 36 · Aug 24 – Aug 30, 2026

This week (Week 36 · Aug 24 – Aug 30, 2026) we analyzed 36 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. VANGUARD dominated with 88.2% accuracy (15/17 correct), ahead of ELOHQ at 86.4%. VANGUARD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1219 and Log Loss of 0.4143.

🏆 Model of the Week: VANGUARD

VANGUARD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 15 out of 17 matches.

🥇

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed excellent performance with 88.2% accuracy across 17 predictions (15 correct, 2 wrong).

88.2%

Accuracy

17

Predictions

15

Correct

2

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W35: 88.2% (17)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	VANGUARD	88.2%	17	15	2
#2	ELOHQ	86.4%	22	19	3
#3	TIER3	84.2%	19	16	3
#4	TIER2	81.8%	22	18	4
#5	TIER	81.0%	21	17	4
#6	HIGH-ORACLE	80.0%	15	12	3
#7	NEXUS	78.6%	14	11	3
#8	ELO	76.7%	30	23	7
#9	ELOFACE	76.7%	30	23	7
#10	ORACLE	75.8%	33	25	8
#11	APEX	75.0%	32	24	8
#12	EAGLE	75.0%	28	21	7
#13	PHANTOM	72.7%	33	24	9
#14	WR10C	71.9%	32	23	9
#15	STRONGHOLD	71.4%	7	5	2
#16	TRIBUNAL	71.4%	7	5	2
#17	FORM	65.5%	29	19	10
#18	WR10P	65.0%	20	13	7
#19	OPEN	64.3%	28	18	10
#20	SOS	62.1%	29	18	11
#21	SURGE	59.3%	27	16	11
#22	XGPRO	59.1%	22	13	9
#23	MAJOR	59.1%	22	13	9
#24	STREAK	58.8%	17	10	7
#25	MIND	57.7%	26	15	11
#26	SQUAD	53.8%	26	14	12
#27	WR10	52.4%	21	11	10

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 35 · Aug 17 – Aug 23, 2026

This week (Week 35 · Aug 17 – Aug 23, 2026) we analyzed 17 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (6/6 correct), ahead of STREAK at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0817 and Log Loss of 0.3333.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 6 out of 6 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 6 predictions (6 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

6

Predictions

6

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W34: 100.0% (6)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	6	6	0
#2	STREAK	100.0%	6	6	0
#3	HIGH-ORACLE	100.0%	5	5	0
#4	WR10P	93.3%	15	14	1
#5	XGPRO	87.5%	8	7	1
#6	MAJOR	87.5%	8	7	1
#7	WR10	84.6%	13	11	2
#8	ELOHQ	80.0%	10	8	2
#9	ORACLE	78.6%	14	11	3
#10	TIER3	77.8%	9	7	2
#11	SURGE	76.9%	13	10	3
#12	VANGUARD	75.0%	8	6	2
#13	WR10C	70.6%	17	12	5
#14	TIER	70.0%	10	7	3
#15	ELO	68.8%	16	11	5
#16	ELOFACE	68.8%	16	11	5
#17	MIND	66.7%	12	8	4
#18	APEX	62.5%	16	10	6
#19	TIER2	61.5%	13	8	5
#20	OPEN	61.5%	13	8	5
#21	FORM	61.5%	13	8	5
#22	SOS	60.0%	15	9	6
#23	EAGLE	60.0%	15	9	6
#24	PHANTOM	58.8%	17	10	7
#25	SQUAD	41.2%	17	7	10

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 34 · Aug 10 – Aug 16, 2026

This week (Week 34 · Aug 10 – Aug 16, 2026) we analyzed 40 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. TIER dominated with 79.3% accuracy (23/29 correct), ahead of TIER2 at 79.3%. TIER achieved a Brier Score of 0.2231 and Log Loss of 0.639.

🏆 Model of the Week: TIER

TIER had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 23 out of 29 matches.

🥇

TIER

ELO for top-30 teams

TIER showed excellent performance with 79.3% accuracy across 29 predictions (23 correct, 6 wrong).

79.3%

Accuracy

29

Predictions

23

Correct

6

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W33: 79.3% (29)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER	79.3%	29	23	6
#2	TIER2	79.3%	29	23	6
#3	STRONGHOLD	78.6%	14	11	3
#4	SOS	78.4%	37	29	8
#5	VANGUARD	77.3%	22	17	5
#6	NEXUS	77.3%	22	17	5
#7	PHANTOM	76.9%	39	30	9
#8	HIGH-ORACLE	76.2%	21	16	5
#9	ELOHQ	75.9%	29	22	7
#10	APEX	75.7%	37	28	9
#11	ORACLE	75.7%	37	28	9
#12	TIER3	75.0%	24	18	6
#13	XGPRO	75.0%	24	18	6
#14	MAJOR	75.0%	24	18	6
#15	STREAK	73.7%	19	14	5
#16	ELO	73.0%	37	27	10
#17	ELOFACE	73.0%	37	27	10
#18	EAGLE	70.3%	37	26	11
#19	WR10C	66.7%	39	26	13
#20	TRIBUNAL	66.7%	9	6	3
#21	MIND	65.5%	29	19	10
#22	WR10	64.3%	28	18	10
#23	SQUAD	63.2%	38	24	14
#24	OPEN	57.1%	28	16	12
#25	WR10P	55.3%	38	21	17
#26	FORM	55.2%	29	16	13
#27	SURGE	32.4%	37	12	25

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 33 · Aug 03 – Aug 09, 2026

This week (Week 33 · Aug 03 – Aug 09, 2026) we analyzed 112 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. SENTINEL dominated with 100.0% accuracy (13/13 correct), ahead of VANGUARD at 97.0%. SENTINEL achieved a Brier Score of 0.1347 and Log Loss of 0.4563.

🏆 Model of the Week: SENTINEL

SENTINEL had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 13 out of 13 matches.

🥇

SENTINEL

Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction

SENTINEL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 13 predictions (13 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

13

Predictions

13

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W32: 100.0% (13)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SENTINEL	100.0%	13	13	0
#2	VANGUARD	97.0%	33	32	1
#3	NEXUS	96.3%	27	26	1
#4	HIGH-ORACLE	92.3%	39	36	3
#5	TRIBUNAL	92.0%	25	23	2
#6	STRONGHOLD	89.5%	19	17	2
#7	ELOHQ	87.5%	56	49	7
#8	APEX	80.6%	98	79	19
#9	PHANTOM	80.4%	92	74	18
#10	EAGLE	80.0%	90	72	18
#11	ORACLE	79.4%	102	81	21
#12	SOS	77.6%	85	66	19
#13	ELOFACE	76.1%	88	67	21
#14	ELO	74.5%	94	70	24
#15	TIER2	73.9%	23	17	6
#16	TIER	72.7%	22	16	6
#17	SQUAD	71.9%	96	69	27
#18	WR10C	71.0%	100	71	29
#19	SURGE	60.6%	66	40	26
#20	OPEN	58.3%	72	42	30
#21	STREAK	58.1%	31	18	13
#22	XGPRO	57.5%	73	42	31
#23	MAJOR	57.5%	73	42	31
#24	TIER3	57.1%	7	4	3
#25	FORM	54.2%	83	45	38
#26	WR10	39.1%	23	9	14
#27	WR10P	33.3%	24	8	16
#28	MIND	32.1%	81	26	55

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 32 · Jul 27 – Aug 02, 2026

This week (Week 32 · Jul 27 – Aug 02, 2026) we analyzed 10 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (5/5 correct), ahead of TRIBUNAL at 100.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0819 and Log Loss of 0.3339.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 5 out of 5 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 5 predictions (5 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

5

Predictions

5

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W31: 100.0% (5)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	5	5	0
#2	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	3	3	0
#3	VANGUARD	85.7%	7	6	1
#4	OPEN	85.7%	7	6	1
#5	NEXUS	83.3%	6	5	1
#6	TIER	83.3%	6	5	1
#7	APEX	80.0%	10	8	2
#8	ORACLE	80.0%	10	8	2
#9	HIGH-ORACLE	80.0%	5	4	1
#10	TIER3	80.0%	5	4	1
#11	XGPRO	80.0%	5	4	1
#12	MAJOR	80.0%	5	4	1
#13	FORM	77.8%	9	7	2
#14	SOS	77.8%	9	7	2
#15	WR10C	77.8%	9	7	2
#16	PHANTOM	77.8%	9	7	2
#17	ELO	77.8%	9	7	2
#18	ELOFACE	77.8%	9	7	2
#19	ELOHQ	75.0%	8	6	2
#20	STREAK	75.0%	4	3	1
#21	TIER2	71.4%	7	5	2
#22	EAGLE	70.0%	10	7	3
#23	SQUAD	66.7%	9	6	3
#24	MIND	50.0%	8	4	4
#25	WR10	42.9%	7	3	4
#26	WR10P	42.9%	7	3	4
#27	SURGE	22.2%	9	2	7

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · August 2026

Based on July 2026 data, we tracked 135 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models with a total of 2362 predictions. The average model accuracy was 61.3%, with a spread of 34.6% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

TRIBUNAL takes the top spot with 77.3% accuracy, followed by STRONGHOLD at 73.0% and SENTINEL at 70.0%.

🥇

TRIBUNAL

OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

TRIBUNAL showed excellent performance with 77.3% accuracy across 22 predictions (17 correct, 5 wrong). Best week: W28 at 100.0%, weakest: W30 at 42.9%.

77.3%

Accuracy

22

Predictions

17

Correct

5

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W27: 83.3% (6)W28: 100.0% (7)W30: 42.9% (7)W31: 100.0% (2)

🥈

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed strong performance with 73.0% accuracy across 37 predictions (27 correct, 10 wrong). Best week: W31 at 100.0%, weakest: W30 at 55.6%.

73.0%

Accuracy

37

Predictions

27

Correct

10

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W27: 83.3% (6)W28: 90.0% (10)W30: 55.6% (18)W31: 100.0% (3)

🥉

SENTINEL

Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction

SENTINEL showed strong performance with 70.0% accuracy across 10 predictions (7 correct, 3 wrong). Best week: W28 at 80.0%, weakest: W27 at 0.0%.

70.0%

Accuracy

10

Predictions

7

Correct

3

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W27: 0.0% (1)W28: 80.0% (5)W30: 75.0% (4)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TRIBUNAL	77.3%	22	17	5
#2	STRONGHOLD	73.0%	37	27	10
#3	SENTINEL	70.0%	10	7	3
#4	NEXUS	68.3%	60	41	19
#5	PHANTOM	68.0%	125	85	40
#6	VANGUARD	67.4%	43	29	14
#7	ORACLE	66.1%	118	78	40
#8	HIGH-ORACLE	66.1%	56	37	19
#9	EAGLE	65.9%	123	81	42
#10	TIER3	65.8%	38	25	13
#11	ELOHQ	65.7%	67	44	23
#12	ELOFACE	64.8%	105	68	37
#13	TIER	64.8%	54	35	19
#14	ELO	63.7%	113	72	41
#15	TIER2	62.5%	64	40	24
#16	APEX	62.3%	122	76	46
#17	SOS	61.8%	110	68	42
#18	WR10C	60.8%	125	76	49
#19	XGPRO	60.2%	93	56	37
#20	MAJOR	60.2%	93	56	37
#21	MIND	55.6%	117	65	52
#22	SQUAD	54.5%	110	60	50
#23	STREAK	53.8%	65	35	30
#24	OPEN	51.5%	103	53	50
#25	FORM	51.0%	104	53	51
#26	WR10	49.4%	77	38	39
#27	WR10P	44.0%	91	40	51
#28	SURGE	42.7%	117	50	67

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 31 · Jul 20 – Jul 26, 2026

This week (Week 31 · Jul 20 – Jul 26, 2026) we analyzed 41 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. TIER3 dominated with 68.4% accuracy (13/19 correct), ahead of TIER3 at 68.4%. TIER3 achieved a Brier Score of 0.2398 and Log Loss of 0.6728.

🏆 Model of the Week: TIER3

TIER3 performed strongly this week with solid accuracy across 19 predictions.

🥇

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed strong performance with 68.4% accuracy across 19 predictions (13 correct, 6 wrong).

68.4%

Accuracy

19

Predictions

13

Correct

6

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W30: 68.4% (19)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SENTINEL	75.0%	4	3	1
#2	TIER3	68.4%	19	13	6
#3	EAGLE	67.6%	37	25	12
#4	PHANTOM	66.7%	39	26	13
#5	ORACLE	65.8%	38	25	13
#6	TIER	65.2%	23	15	8
#7	SOS	64.9%	37	24	13
#8	TIER2	61.5%	26	16	10
#9	NEXUS	61.5%	26	16	10
#10	APEX	60.0%	40	24	16
#11	HIGH-ORACLE	57.7%	26	15	11
#12	ELOHQ	56.7%	30	17	13
#13	STRONGHOLD	55.6%	18	10	8
#14	ELO	54.1%	37	20	17
#15	ELOFACE	52.8%	36	19	17
#16	WR10C	52.6%	38	20	18
#17	XGPRO	51.7%	29	15	14
#18	MAJOR	51.7%	29	15	14
#19	SQUAD	51.5%	33	17	16
#20	MIND	50.0%	36	18	18
#21	VANGUARD	50.0%	20	10	10
#22	STREAK	45.0%	20	9	11
#23	TRIBUNAL	42.9%	7	3	4
#24	OPEN	41.9%	31	13	18
#25	FORM	36.4%	33	12	21
#26	WR10P	33.3%	33	11	22
#27	WR10	33.3%	27	9	18
#28	SURGE	31.4%	35	11	24

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 30 · Jul 13 – Jul 19, 2026

This week (Week 30 · Jul 13 – Jul 19, 2026) we analyzed 20 top-tier CS2 matches across 20 prediction models. SQUAD dominated with 63.6% accuracy (7/11 correct), ahead of SQUAD at 63.6%. SQUAD achieved a Brier Score of 0.2753 and Log Loss of 0.7836.

🏆 Model of the Week: SQUAD

SQUAD edged out the competition this week, though accuracy across all models was moderate.

🥇

SQUAD

Player ratings

SQUAD showed decent performance with 63.6% accuracy across 11 predictions (7 correct, 4 wrong).

63.6%

Accuracy

11

Predictions

7

Correct

4

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W29: 63.6% (11)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	WR10P	66.7%	3	2	1
#2	SQUAD	63.6%	11	7	4
#3	XGPRO	60.0%	10	6	4
#4	MAJOR	60.0%	10	6	4
#5	PHANTOM	56.2%	16	9	7
#6	EAGLE	56.2%	16	9	7
#7	WR10C	50.0%	18	9	9
#8	FORM	50.0%	12	6	6
#9	WR10	50.0%	4	2	2
#10	OPEN	46.2%	13	6	7
#11	APEX	46.2%	13	6	7
#12	ELO	42.9%	14	6	8
#13	MIND	42.9%	14	6	8
#14	ELOFACE	40.0%	10	4	6
#15	ELOHQ	40.0%	5	2	3
#16	ORACLE	38.5%	13	5	8
#17	SURGE	33.3%	12	4	8
#18	TIER2	33.3%	3	1	2
#19	STREAK	28.6%	7	2	5
#20	SOS	25.0%	12	3	9

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 29 · Jul 06 – Jul 12, 2026

This week (Week 29 · Jul 06 – Jul 12, 2026) we analyzed 35 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models. TRIBUNAL dominated with 100.0% accuracy (7/7 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 90.0%. TRIBUNAL achieved a Brier Score of 0.1544 and Log Loss of 0.4987.

🏆 Model of the Week: TRIBUNAL

TRIBUNAL had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 7 out of 7 matches.

🥇

TRIBUNAL

OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

TRIBUNAL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 7 predictions (7 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

7

Predictions

7

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W28: 100.0% (7)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	7	7	0
#2	STRONGHOLD	90.0%	10	9	1
#3	VANGUARD	85.7%	7	6	1
#4	HIGH-ORACLE	81.2%	16	13	3
#5	NEXUS	81.2%	16	13	3
#6	SENTINEL	80.0%	5	4	1
#7	EAGLE	77.4%	31	24	7
#8	PHANTOM	75.8%	33	25	8
#9	ORACLE	75.8%	33	25	8
#10	SOS	75.0%	28	21	7
#11	ELOHQ	75.0%	16	12	4
#12	ELOFACE	73.1%	26	19	7
#13	XGPRO	69.2%	26	18	8
#14	MAJOR	69.2%	26	18	8
#15	ELO	69.0%	29	20	9
#16	APEX	67.7%	31	21	10
#17	STREAK	66.7%	15	10	5
#18	TIER2	66.7%	12	8	4
#19	TIER	63.6%	11	7	4
#20	MIND	61.3%	31	19	12
#21	TIER3	60.0%	5	3	2
#22	WR10C	56.2%	32	18	14
#23	SQUAD	53.1%	32	17	15
#24	FORM	48.0%	25	12	13
#25	OPEN	45.8%	24	11	13
#26	SURGE	45.5%	33	15	18
#27	WR10	42.1%	19	8	11
#28	WR10P	28.6%	21	6	15

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 28 · Jun 29 – Jul 05, 2026

This week (Week 28 · Jun 29 – Jul 05, 2026) we analyzed 34 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. VANGUARD dominated with 90.9% accuracy (10/11 correct), ahead of ELOHQ at 84.6%. VANGUARD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1065 and Log Loss of 0.3789.

🏆 Model of the Week: VANGUARD

VANGUARD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 10 out of 11 matches.

🥇

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed excellent performance with 90.9% accuracy across 11 predictions (10 correct, 1 wrong).

90.9%

Accuracy

11

Predictions

10

Correct

1

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W27: 90.9% (11)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	VANGUARD	90.9%	11	10	1
#2	ELOHQ	84.6%	13	11	2
#3	STRONGHOLD	83.3%	6	5	1
#4	TRIBUNAL	83.3%	6	5	1
#5	ELO	79.3%	29	23	6
#6	ELOFACE	79.3%	29	23	6
#7	WR10C	78.8%	33	26	7
#8	NEXUS	75.0%	12	9	3
#9	WR10	70.8%	24	17	7
#10	HIGH-ORACLE	70.0%	10	7	3
#11	FORM	66.7%	30	20	10
#12	ORACLE	65.5%	29	19	10
#13	PHANTOM	63.6%	33	21	12
#14	TIER3	63.6%	11	7	4
#15	TIER2	63.2%	19	12	7
#16	OPEN	62.5%	32	20	12
#17	APEX	62.5%	32	20	12
#18	TIER	62.5%	16	10	6
#19	MIND	61.3%	31	19	12
#20	WR10P	61.3%	31	19	12
#21	SURGE	59.4%	32	19	13
#22	SOS	58.6%	29	17	12
#23	XGPRO	58.3%	24	14	10
#24	MAJOR	58.3%	24	14	10
#25	STREAK	57.9%	19	11	8
#26	EAGLE	57.6%	33	19	14
#27	SQUAD	51.7%	29	15	14

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · July 2026

Based on June 2026 data, we tracked 115 top-tier CS2 matches across 28 prediction models with a total of 1926 predictions. The average model accuracy was 59.9%, with a spread of 48.3% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

TIER3 takes the top spot with 73.3% accuracy, followed by ELOHQ at 72.6% and VANGUARD at 70.0%.

🥇

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed strong performance with 73.3% accuracy across 30 predictions (22 correct, 8 wrong). Best week: W24 at 84.6%, weakest: W26 at 0.0%.

73.3%

Accuracy

30

Predictions

22

Correct

8

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 83.3% (12)W24: 84.6% (13)W25: 33.3% (3)W26: 0.0% (2)

🥈

ELOHQ

High-confidence ELO

ELOHQ showed strong performance with 72.6% accuracy across 62 predictions (45 correct, 17 wrong). Best week: W27 at 100.0%, weakest: W26 at 0.0%.

72.6%

Accuracy

62

Predictions

45

Correct

17

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 70.0% (30)W24: 86.4% (22)W25: 57.1% (7)W26: 0.0% (2)W27: 100.0% (1)

🥉

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed strong performance with 70.0% accuracy across 30 predictions (21 correct, 9 wrong). Best week: W23 at 85.7%, weakest: W26 at 0.0%.

70.0%

Accuracy

30

Predictions

21

Correct

9

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 85.7% (7)W24: 81.2% (16)W25: 40.0% (5)W26: 0.0% (2)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TIER3	73.3%	30	22	8
#2	ELOHQ	72.6%	62	45	17
#3	VANGUARD	70.0%	30	21	9
#4	NEXUS	68.6%	35	24	11
#5	ELOFACE	68.5%	92	63	29
#6	TIER2	67.9%	56	38	18
#7	WR10C	67.3%	104	70	34
#8	TIER	66.7%	48	32	16
#9	ELO	66.0%	100	66	34
#10	STRONGHOLD	65.0%	20	13	7
#11	ORACLE	64.9%	97	63	34
#12	EAGLE	64.8%	88	57	31
#13	HIGH-ORACLE	63.3%	30	19	11
#14	APEX	61.9%	105	65	40
#15	PHANTOM	61.2%	103	63	40
#16	SOS	60.0%	95	57	38
#17	WR10P	58.4%	101	59	42
#18	WR10	57.1%	77	44	33
#19	SURGE	57.1%	77	44	33
#20	TRIBUNAL	57.1%	7	4	3
#21	OPEN	57.0%	79	45	34
#22	FORM	56.2%	89	50	39
#23	STREAK	50.9%	53	27	26
#24	XGPRO	50.7%	73	37	36
#25	MAJOR	50.7%	73	37	36
#26	MIND	50.6%	89	45	44
#27	SQUAD	45.0%	109	49	60
#28	SENTINEL	25.0%	4	1	3

Not much to report this week — the calendar landed between events. From June 22 through 28 only two matches on the top / major tier reached completion, which is far short of what we normally need for a meaningful model breakdown.

Why the "Model of the Week" isn't ranked this time

Our weekly digest normally ranks all 20+ models by accuracy across the week's premium matches. With just 2 matches:

• Every model sits at either 0%, 50%, or 100% accuracy — a coin-flip statistic, not signal.
• The "winner" would be whichever model happened to call one specific match correctly. That's noise dressed up as insight.
• Publishing rankings on this small a sample would mislead more than inform.

So instead of pretending, here's the actual state.

What ran during the week

• EPL World SEA S16 wrapped up — regional finals came in mid-week; most matches sat in tier=professional or tier=other, not top-tier by our classifier.
• Assorted qualifiers (TI-EU CQ, TI-NA CQ, CCT Series, Choco Cup) — most of the week's traffic, but again below the "major" bar we use for the digest.
• The 2 top-tier matches that did settle were isolated one-offs at the edges of the week.

Coming up

The calendar picks up sharply from here — TI2026 Regional Qualifiers are still active, and higher-tier lineups roll into July. Model accuracy stats will start being meaningful again as soon as those matches settle. Watch the Models page for live leaderboard positioning, and the Matches feed for what's scheduled.

A note on our methodology: we intentionally hold the "Model of the Week" post to at least 3 predictions per model. If we can't clear that bar, we say so instead of publishing noisy rankings. Full model accuracy across all time windows is always available on the Models leaderboard.

— The cs2predict team

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 26 · Jun 15 – Jun 21, 2026

This week (Week 26 · Jun 15 – Jun 21, 2026) we analyzed 16 top-tier CS2 matches across 23 prediction models. SURGE dominated with 78.6% accuracy (11/14 correct), ahead of ELOFACE at 66.7%. SURGE achieved a Brier Score of 0.201 and Log Loss of 0.6194.

🏆 Model of the Week: SURGE

SURGE had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 11 out of 14 matches.

🥇

SURGE

Best-improving player K-D trajectory across team starters

SURGE showed excellent performance with 78.6% accuracy across 14 predictions (11 correct, 3 wrong).

78.6%

Accuracy

14

Predictions

11

Correct

3

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W25: 78.6% (14)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SURGE	78.6%	14	11	3
#2	ELOFACE	66.7%	9	6	3
#3	FORM	63.6%	11	7	4
#4	ELO	63.6%	11	7	4
#5	WR10C	61.5%	13	8	5
#6	OPEN	58.3%	12	7	5
#7	ELOHQ	57.1%	7	4	3
#8	XGPRO	55.6%	9	5	4
#9	MAJOR	55.6%	9	5	4
#10	ORACLE	54.5%	11	6	5
#11	APEX	53.3%	15	8	7
#12	PHANTOM	50.0%	14	7	7
#13	WR10P	50.0%	10	5	5
#14	MIND	44.4%	9	4	5
#15	WR10	44.4%	9	4	5
#16	EAGLE	40.0%	10	4	6
#17	SOS	40.0%	10	4	6
#18	VANGUARD	40.0%	5	2	3
#19	TIER2	37.5%	8	3	5
#20	SQUAD	35.7%	14	5	9
#21	TIER3	33.3%	3	1	2
#22	STREAK	28.6%	7	2	5
#23	TIER	16.7%	6	1	5

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 25 · Jun 08 – Jun 14, 2026

This week (Week 25 · Jun 08 – Jun 14, 2026) we analyzed 39 top-tier CS2 matches across 26 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (6/6 correct), ahead of NEXUS at 90.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0919 and Log Loss of 0.36.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 6 out of 6 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 6 predictions (6 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

6

Predictions

6

Correct

0

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W24: 100.0% (6)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	6	6	0
#2	NEXUS	90.0%	10	9	1
#3	TIER	88.9%	18	16	2
#4	HIGH-ORACLE	87.5%	8	7	1
#5	ELOHQ	86.4%	22	19	3
#6	TIER2	85.0%	20	17	3
#7	TIER3	84.6%	13	11	2
#8	PHANTOM	82.4%	34	28	6
#9	VANGUARD	81.2%	16	13	3
#10	ELOFACE	80.0%	35	28	7
#11	ORACLE	80.0%	35	28	7
#12	EAGLE	80.0%	30	24	6
#13	SOS	78.8%	33	26	7
#14	ELO	78.4%	37	29	8
#15	APEX	78.4%	37	29	8
#16	WR10C	73.7%	38	28	10
#17	OPEN	70.4%	27	19	8
#18	FORM	69.0%	29	20	9
#19	WR10	64.5%	31	20	11
#20	STREAK	63.2%	19	12	7
#21	XGPRO	62.5%	24	15	9
#22	MAJOR	62.5%	24	15	9
#23	WR10P	61.5%	39	24	15
#24	MIND	53.1%	32	17	15
#25	SURGE	51.4%	37	19	18
#26	SQUAD	50.0%	38	19	19

The Cologne Major's Legends Stage closed last weekend with a near-perfect AI run from TIERELO (12 out of 15 — our highest Pickem score so far). Stage 3 just opened with all 16 teams now at the LANXESS arena. Here's what worked, what flopped, and what the models think happens next.

Stage 2 results

🏆 TIERELO ran the table — 12/15

The story of Stage 2 is TIERELO. It is our highest Pickem score on cs2predict.gg so far — Stage 1's winner SENTINEL only managed 6/15. Here's TIERELO's bracket:

Why TIERELO worked here: The model weights tier-3 teams by their ELO relative to bracket peers (not absolute), so it catches the right "tier-1 underdog runs the bracket" signals. Spirit going 3-0 was a non-consensus call — most models had Vitality or another top seed as the safer perfect-Swiss pick. And FlyQuest as 0-3 was unloved by exactly the kinds of models that overweight HLTV rank.

Stage 2 leaderboard (top 6)

SURGE (our newest PRO-tier model, launched right before Stage 2) debuts at 3rd place on its very first Pickem event — both lines correct except for the 0-3 call. Nice start.

Cumulative leaderboard (after Stage 2)

Two events in, the standings are starting to mean something:

WR10COMBO is the only model on the site to nail both Pickem 4-point lines across two stages (3-0 and 0-3 in each event). Steady, dull, and almost certainly the one to bet on for Stage 3. Full table: /pickem/leaderboard/.

🔮 Stage 3 is live — predictions open

The Champions Stage just started in Cologne. 16 teams, BO3 throughout (a first for a CS2 Major), all Swiss, top 8 advance to playoffs. Field is the eight Stage 2 advancers (FUT, Spirit, G2, BetBoom, 9z, B8, Legacy, Monte) joined by the eight pre-qualified Champions seeds (Vitality, Natus Vincere, MOUZ, Falcons, FURIA, Aurora, The MongolZ, PARIVISION).

AI Consensus across our 28 models:

The interesting story is BetBoom as consensus 0-3. They scraped through Stage 2 at 3-1 (avoiding elimination on the final map of their final match) and the models clearly read that as a fluke. If they go out 0-3 here, the models will look smart. If they make it through again, this becomes the Pickem upset of the Major.

And Vitality as 3-0 is mostly "trust the rank" — they're the world #1 entering Stage 3 and most models default to that. The interesting alternative comes from TIERELO (the Stage 2 winner) and a couple of others, who picked a different team to run the table. Click into /pickem/iem-cologne-major-2026-stage-3/ to see every model's individual bracket — and whether the meta-models that dominated Stage 2 agree on the upset call.

Predictions are live; the bracket fills in as the next four days play out. The cumulative leaderboard will update automatically once Stage 3 finalizes.

Heads-up: after Stage 3 closes (around June 14), the eight survivors head into a BO3 single-elim playoff bracket. We're working on a separate "champion / finalist / semifinalist" Pickem-style page for that — different scoring (4 + 4 + 1×2 = max 10), same idea.

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 24 · Jun 01 – Jun 07, 2026

This week (Week 24 · Jun 01 – Jun 07, 2026) we analyzed 58 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. VANGUARD dominated with 85.7% accuracy (6/7 correct), ahead of TIER3 at 83.3%. VANGUARD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1258 and Log Loss of 0.4174.

🏆 Model of the Week: VANGUARD

VANGUARD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 6 out of 7 matches.

🥇

VANGUARD

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

VANGUARD showed excellent performance with 85.7% accuracy across 7 predictions (6 correct, 1 wrong).

85.7%

Accuracy

7

Predictions

6

Correct

1

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W23: 85.7% (7)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	VANGUARD	85.7%	7	6	1
#2	TIER3	83.3%	12	10	2
#3	NEXUS	71.4%	21	15	6
#4	ELOHQ	70.0%	30	21	9
#5	TIER2	69.2%	26	18	8
#6	TIER	68.2%	22	15	7
#7	HIGH-ORACLE	66.7%	18	12	6
#8	WR10C	66.0%	50	33	17
#9	EAGLE	63.0%	46	29	17
#10	ELOFACE	62.2%	45	28	17
#11	STRONGHOLD	60.0%	10	6	4
#12	ELO	59.2%	49	29	20
#13	ORACLE	58.3%	48	28	20
#14	WR10P	58.0%	50	29	21
#15	SURGE	56.5%	23	13	10
#16	WR10	55.6%	36	20	16
#17	APEX	54.9%	51	28	23
#18	PHANTOM	53.8%	52	28	24
#19	SOS	53.1%	49	26	23
#20	MIND	48.9%	45	22	23
#21	STREAK	48.1%	27	13	14
#22	FORM	47.8%	46	22	24
#23	OPEN	47.4%	38	18	20
#24	SQUAD	45.5%	55	25	30
#25	XGPRO	42.5%	40	17	23
#26	MAJOR	42.5%	40	17	23
#27	TRIBUNAL	25.0%	4	1	3

Following up on our Stage 1 launch post, the IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Swiss has wrapped. Here's what 27 AI models actually got right — and the new Pickem Leaderboard we just launched to track all of this going forward.

The actual Stage 1 outcome

Stage 1 produced two 3-0 teams, two 0-3 teams, and six advancers:

• 3-0: B8, BetBoom
• 0-3: SINNERS, Gaimin Gladiators
• Advanced (3-1 / 3-2): GamerLegion, MIBR, BIG, TYLOO, M80, FlyQuest
• Eliminated (1-3 / 2-3): HEROIC, Lynn Vision, Liquid, Sharks, NRG, THUNDER dOWNUNDER

The big upset: HEROIC

The story of Stage 1 is HEROIC. They were the consensus 3-0 pick from 12 of 27 models — the heaviest concentration of any team on any pick. They went out at 1-3.

Meanwhile B8, who only one model (SENTINEL) called for 3-0, ran the table perfectly. That single non-consensus call is the entire reason SENTINEL won the event.

Top scorers — Stage 1

Three observations:

• SENTINEL is the only model that scored on the 3-0 line. It picked B8 — a team almost every other model rated as a fringe advancer at best.
• WR10COMBO was the only model to nail the 0-3 line (SINNERS). That single +4 pts vaulted it to second despite a weak advance count.
• HIGHORACLE has the highest advance hit-rate (4/7) but missed both anchors. Solid mid-tier judgment, weak on extremes — a classic "play it safe" profile.

Introducing the Pickem Leaderboard

From now on, every model's Pickem performance accumulates across all completed Majors. The new /pickem/leaderboard/ page ranks all 27 models by cumulative HLTV-rule points, and each row is clickable for a per-event breakdown: who they picked, who they should have picked, and exactly how their score was assembled.

The leaderboard is permanent. Stage 2 results will roll in. So will every Major after that. The story of which AI model is actually the best at Pickem will be told over many events, not one.

What's next

• Stage 2 predictions are already live — 27 models forecast the next Swiss bracket with the same 10,000-run Monte Carlo machinery, now informed by Stage 1's roster shake-up.
• SURGE, our newest PRO model (launch post), is in the mix from Stage 2 onward — it uses a novel signal: the steepest player-level form trajectory on each side. It missed Stage 1 but you'll see it on the leaderboard going forward.
• A user-facing Pickem contest (you make your own picks, models score alongside you) is in the pipeline.

tl;dr — Stage 1 favored the model that took a non-consensus swing. SENTINEL won by being the only model to call B8 perfect. The full leaderboard is at cs2predict.gg/pickem/leaderboard/.

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · June 2026

Based on May 2026 data, we tracked 139 top-tier CS2 matches across 26 prediction models with a total of 2456 predictions. The average model accuracy was 64.0%, with a spread of 27.6% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

STRONGHOLD takes the top spot with 78.4% accuracy, followed by TIER3 at 75.4% and TIER at 72.0%.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 78.4% accuracy across 37 predictions (29 correct, 8 wrong). Best week: W18 at 100.0%, weakest: W22 at 40.0%.

78.4%

Accuracy

37

Predictions

29

Correct

8

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 100.0% (3)W19: 100.0% (8)W20: 81.8% (11)W21: 70.0% (10)W22: 40.0% (5)

🥈

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed excellent performance with 75.4% accuracy across 57 predictions (43 correct, 14 wrong). Best week: W18 at 100.0%, weakest: W22 at 33.3%.

75.4%

Accuracy

57

Predictions

43

Correct

14

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 100.0% (4)W19: 75.0% (12)W20: 80.0% (20)W21: 72.2% (18)W22: 33.3% (3)

🥉

TIER

ELO for top-30 teams

TIER showed strong performance with 72.0% accuracy across 75 predictions (54 correct, 21 wrong). Best week: W18 at 80.0%, weakest: W22 at 37.5%.

72.0%

Accuracy

75

Predictions

54

Correct

21

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 80.0% (5)W19: 78.6% (14)W20: 80.0% (25)W21: 69.6% (23)W22: 37.5% (8)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	78.4%	37	29	8
#2	TIER3	75.4%	57	43	14
#3	TIER	72.0%	75	54	21
#4	TIER2	71.8%	78	56	22
#5	TRIBUNAL	70.4%	27	19	8
#6	WR10	68.6%	102	70	32
#7	SENTINEL	66.7%	9	6	3
#8	WR10C	65.6%	131	86	45
#9	ELOHQ	65.6%	96	63	33
#10	WR10P	63.4%	123	78	45
#11	NEXUS	63.3%	49	31	18
#12	SQUAD	63.2%	133	84	49
#13	OPEN	63.1%	111	70	41
#14	ELOFACE	62.5%	128	80	48
#15	XGPRO	62.4%	85	53	32
#16	MAJOR	62.4%	85	53	32
#17	ELO	61.8%	131	81	50
#18	STREAK	61.8%	76	47	29
#19	HIGH-ORACLE	61.4%	57	35	22
#20	MIND	60.2%	113	68	45
#21	PHANTOM	59.5%	126	75	51
#22	FORM	59.2%	120	71	49
#23	APEX	59.0%	134	79	55
#24	SOS	59.0%	122	72	50
#25	ORACLE	56.6%	129	73	56
#26	EAGLE	50.8%	122	62	60