APEX — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
APEX · ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)
🎯 APEX's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using APEX's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
paiN
2-3
HLTV #19
💀 0-3
GamerLegion
✓ 0-3
HLTV #22
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
9z
✓ 3-1
HLTV #17
⚡ 2
TYLOO
2-3
HLTV #21
⚡ 3
BIG
2-3
unranked
⚡ 4
Astralis
1-3
HLTV #10
⚡ 5
FlyQuest
0-3
unranked
⚡ 6
B8
✓ 3-2
HLTV #20
⚡ 7
M80
1-3
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by APEX's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
paiN
#19
|
0.244 | 0.466 | 0.040 | 0.290 | 3-0 PICK |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.193 | 0.470 | 0.054 | 0.338 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.188 | 0.454 | 0.069 | 0.358 | ADVANCE |
|
9z
#17
|
0.175 | 0.472 | 0.072 | 0.354 | ADVANCE |
|
M80
|
0.150 | 0.401 | 0.090 | 0.449 | ADVANCE |
|
BIG
|
0.147 | 0.468 | 0.072 | 0.385 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.140 | 0.410 | 0.090 | 0.450 | ADVANCE |
Spirit
#9
|
0.131 | 0.386 | 0.110 | 0.483 | — |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.115 | 0.429 | 0.094 | 0.456 | ADVANCE |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.104 | 0.393 | 0.116 | 0.502 | — |
Legacy
#14
|
0.099 | 0.321 | 0.134 | 0.581 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.090 | 0.347 | 0.143 | 0.563 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.085 | 0.358 | 0.135 | 0.557 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.066 | 0.267 | 0.180 | 0.667 | — |
MIBR
|
0.062 | 0.272 | 0.184 | 0.666 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.012 | 0.086 | 0.419 | 0.902 | 0-3 PICK |
How APEX predicts
ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)
For the Pickem Challenge, APEX ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by APEX's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, APEX ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by APEX's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.