STRONGHOLD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
STRONGHOLD · ELO + SOS both >60% same direction
🎯 STRONGHOLD's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using STRONGHOLD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Legacy
HLTV #14
💀 0-3
M80
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 3
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 4
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 5
Spirit
HLTV #9
⚡ 6
FUT
HLTV #13
⚡ 7
9z
HLTV #17
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by STRONGHOLD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.288 | 0.531 | 0.016 | 0.182 | 3-0 PICK |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.273 | 0.507 | 0.017 | 0.219 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.235 | 0.494 | 0.027 | 0.271 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.211 | 0.525 | 0.036 | 0.265 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.191 | 0.477 | 0.031 | 0.332 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.152 | 0.511 | 0.048 | 0.338 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.150 | 0.536 | 0.051 | 0.314 | ADVANCE |
|
9z
#17
|
0.145 | 0.460 | 0.057 | 0.395 | ADVANCE |
B8
#20
|
0.099 | 0.403 | 0.088 | 0.498 | — |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.062 | 0.353 | 0.123 | 0.584 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.060 | 0.279 | 0.141 | 0.661 | — |
BIG
|
0.056 | 0.282 | 0.148 | 0.662 | — |
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.037 | 0.303 | 0.191 | 0.660 | — |
MIBR
|
0.023 | 0.177 | 0.248 | 0.800 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.013 | 0.106 | 0.333 | 0.881 | — |
|
M80
|
0.006 | 0.056 | 0.447 | 0.938 | 0-3 PICK |
How STRONGHOLD predicts
ELO + SOS both >60% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, STRONGHOLD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by STRONGHOLD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, STRONGHOLD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by STRONGHOLD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.