SQUAD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
SQUAD · Player ratings
🎯 SQUAD's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SQUAD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
💀 0-3
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 2
Spirit
HLTV #9
⚡ 3
FlyQuest
unranked
⚡ 4
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 5
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 6
M80
unranked
⚡ 7
G2
HLTV #12
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SQUAD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.354 | 0.527 | 0.019 | 0.119 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.284 | 0.530 | 0.027 | 0.186 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.260 | 0.507 | 0.031 | 0.233 | ADVANCE |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.179 | 0.494 | 0.034 | 0.326 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.167 | 0.471 | 0.062 | 0.362 | ADVANCE |
|
M80
|
0.160 | 0.449 | 0.056 | 0.392 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.108 | 0.413 | 0.093 | 0.478 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.106 | 0.483 | 0.089 | 0.411 | ADVANCE |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.084 | 0.366 | 0.115 | 0.550 | — |
BIG
|
0.060 | 0.313 | 0.119 | 0.627 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.058 | 0.310 | 0.157 | 0.632 | — |
MIBR
|
0.052 | 0.321 | 0.170 | 0.627 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.042 | 0.266 | 0.195 | 0.692 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.038 | 0.222 | 0.244 | 0.740 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.035 | 0.214 | 0.214 | 0.751 | — |
|
B8
#20
|
0.013 | 0.114 | 0.375 | 0.874 | 0-3 PICK |
How SQUAD predicts
Player ratings
For the Pickem Challenge, SQUAD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SQUAD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SQUAD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SQUAD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.