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← Back to IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem overview

TIERELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks

TIER · ELO for top-30 teams

🎯 TIERELO's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIERELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
2% confidence
💀 0-3
FlyQuest
unranked
1% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
4% advance
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
4% advance
⚡ 3
Legacy
HLTV #14
4% advance
⚡ 4
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
4% advance
⚡ 5
paiN
HLTV #19
4% advance
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
4% advance
⚡ 7
B8
HLTV #20
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by TIERELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
Spirit #9 0.156 0.407 0.099 0.437 3-0 PICK
Astralis #10 0.145 0.403 0.105 0.452 ADVANCE
Legacy #14 0.138 0.396 0.113 0.467 ADVANCE
FUT #13 0.129 0.367 0.122 0.503
G2 #12 0.127 0.396 0.113 0.476 ADVANCE
paiN #19 0.127 0.384 0.119 0.489 ADVANCE
9z #17 0.127 0.368 0.130 0.505
GamerLegion #22 0.127 0.394 0.118 0.479 ADVANCE
B8 #20 0.125 0.372 0.121 0.504 ADVANCE
Monte #23 0.124 0.378 0.127 0.499 ADVANCE
TYLOO #21 0.122 0.368 0.126 0.511
BIG 0.115 0.350 0.141 0.535
M80 0.111 0.367 0.136 0.522
BetBoom #28 0.110 0.350 0.144 0.540
FlyQuest 0.109 0.347 0.145 0.544 0-3 PICK
MIBR 0.109 0.354 0.143 0.537

How TIERELO predicts

ELO for top-30 teams

For the Pickem Challenge, TIERELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIERELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

27 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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