TIERELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
TIER · ELO for top-30 teams
🎯 TIERELO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIERELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
💀 0-3
FlyQuest
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 3
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 4
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 5
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 7
B8
HLTV #20
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by TIERELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.156 | 0.407 | 0.099 | 0.437 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.145 | 0.403 | 0.105 | 0.452 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.138 | 0.396 | 0.113 | 0.467 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.129 | 0.367 | 0.122 | 0.503 | — |
|
G2
#12
|
0.127 | 0.396 | 0.113 | 0.476 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.127 | 0.384 | 0.119 | 0.489 | ADVANCE |
9z
#17
|
0.127 | 0.368 | 0.130 | 0.505 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.127 | 0.394 | 0.118 | 0.479 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.125 | 0.372 | 0.121 | 0.504 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.124 | 0.378 | 0.127 | 0.499 | ADVANCE |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.122 | 0.368 | 0.126 | 0.511 | — |
BIG
|
0.115 | 0.350 | 0.141 | 0.535 | — |
M80
|
0.111 | 0.367 | 0.136 | 0.522 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.110 | 0.350 | 0.144 | 0.540 | — |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.109 | 0.347 | 0.145 | 0.544 | 0-3 PICK |
MIBR
|
0.109 | 0.354 | 0.143 | 0.537 | — |
How TIERELO predicts
ELO for top-30 teams
For the Pickem Challenge, TIERELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIERELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, TIERELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIERELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.