OPEN — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
OPEN · Rank + form + head-to-head
🎯 OPEN's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using OPEN's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
💀 0-3
M80
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 2
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 3
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 4
FUT
HLTV #13
⚡ 5
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 6
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 7
Spirit
HLTV #9
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by OPEN's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.226 | 0.506 | 0.053 | 0.268 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.189 | 0.468 | 0.066 | 0.343 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.179 | 0.423 | 0.080 | 0.398 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.170 | 0.439 | 0.081 | 0.391 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.159 | 0.435 | 0.082 | 0.406 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.150 | 0.440 | 0.093 | 0.410 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.144 | 0.454 | 0.093 | 0.402 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.139 | 0.431 | 0.101 | 0.430 | ADVANCE |
9z
#17
|
0.098 | 0.327 | 0.139 | 0.575 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.095 | 0.337 | 0.143 | 0.567 | — |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.095 | 0.340 | 0.145 | 0.566 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.081 | 0.290 | 0.160 | 0.629 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.075 | 0.291 | 0.185 | 0.635 | — |
MIBR
|
0.071 | 0.303 | 0.175 | 0.626 | — |
BIG
|
0.067 | 0.252 | 0.200 | 0.682 | — |
|
M80
|
0.063 | 0.266 | 0.205 | 0.671 | 0-3 PICK |
How OPEN predicts
Rank + form + head-to-head
For the Pickem Challenge, OPEN ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by OPEN's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, OPEN ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by OPEN's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.