TRIBUNAL — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
TRIBUNAL · OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction
🎯 TRIBUNAL's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TRIBUNAL's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 3
9z
HLTV #17
⚡ 4
FUT
HLTV #13
⚡ 5
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 6
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 7
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by TRIBUNAL's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.324 | 0.489 | 0.028 | 0.187 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.245 | 0.509 | 0.043 | 0.246 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.227 | 0.484 | 0.048 | 0.289 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.144 | 0.437 | 0.092 | 0.419 | ADVANCE |
|
9z
#17
|
0.141 | 0.441 | 0.087 | 0.417 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.126 | 0.415 | 0.087 | 0.459 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.126 | 0.397 | 0.115 | 0.477 | ADVANCE |
MIBR
|
0.098 | 0.355 | 0.123 | 0.547 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.093 | 0.359 | 0.153 | 0.548 | ADVANCE |
M80
|
0.087 | 0.339 | 0.140 | 0.574 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.086 | 0.328 | 0.137 | 0.586 | — |
BIG
|
0.078 | 0.325 | 0.152 | 0.597 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.071 | 0.325 | 0.160 | 0.603 | — |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.060 | 0.292 | 0.184 | 0.649 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.057 | 0.285 | 0.192 | 0.658 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.035 | 0.220 | 0.261 | 0.745 | 0-3 PICK |
How TRIBUNAL predicts
OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, TRIBUNAL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TRIBUNAL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, TRIBUNAL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TRIBUNAL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.