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← Back to IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem overview

TRIBUNAL — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks

TRIBUNAL · OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

🎯 TRIBUNAL's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TRIBUNAL's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
3% confidence
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
3% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
5% advance
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
5% advance
⚡ 3
9z
HLTV #17
4% advance
⚡ 4
FUT
HLTV #13
4% advance
⚡ 5
paiN
HLTV #19
4% advance
⚡ 6
Legacy
HLTV #14
4% advance
⚡ 7
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by TRIBUNAL's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
Spirit #9 0.324 0.489 0.028 0.187 3-0 PICK
Astralis #10 0.245 0.509 0.043 0.246 ADVANCE
G2 #12 0.227 0.484 0.048 0.289 ADVANCE
FUT #13 0.144 0.437 0.092 0.419 ADVANCE
9z #17 0.141 0.441 0.087 0.417 ADVANCE
paiN #19 0.126 0.415 0.087 0.459 ADVANCE
Legacy #14 0.126 0.397 0.115 0.477 ADVANCE
MIBR 0.098 0.355 0.123 0.547
GamerLegion #22 0.093 0.359 0.153 0.548 ADVANCE
M80 0.087 0.339 0.140 0.574
FlyQuest 0.086 0.328 0.137 0.586
BIG 0.078 0.325 0.152 0.597
B8 #20 0.071 0.325 0.160 0.603
TYLOO #21 0.060 0.292 0.184 0.649
Monte #23 0.057 0.285 0.192 0.658
BetBoom #28 0.035 0.220 0.261 0.745 0-3 PICK

How TRIBUNAL predicts

OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

For the Pickem Challenge, TRIBUNAL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TRIBUNAL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

27 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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