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← Back to IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem overview

ELOHQ — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks

ELOHQ · High-confidence ELO

🎯 ELOHQ's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELOHQ's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
2% confidence
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
1% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
4% advance
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
4% advance
⚡ 3
Legacy
HLTV #14
4% advance
⚡ 4
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
4% advance
⚡ 5
paiN
HLTV #19
4% advance
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
4% advance
⚡ 7
FUT
HLTV #13
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by ELOHQ's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
Spirit #9 0.154 0.415 0.096 0.431 3-0 PICK
Astralis #10 0.153 0.413 0.101 0.434 ADVANCE
Legacy #14 0.143 0.399 0.111 0.459 ADVANCE
paiN #19 0.143 0.389 0.112 0.469 ADVANCE
G2 #12 0.136 0.401 0.110 0.463 ADVANCE
FUT #13 0.125 0.374 0.127 0.501 ADVANCE
Monte #23 0.125 0.384 0.123 0.492 ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22 0.124 0.389 0.122 0.487 ADVANCE
9z #17 0.122 0.364 0.128 0.513
TYLOO #21 0.121 0.371 0.129 0.508
BIG 0.114 0.350 0.138 0.536
B8 #20 0.113 0.370 0.131 0.516
FlyQuest 0.112 0.344 0.141 0.544
M80 0.111 0.339 0.139 0.551
MIBR 0.104 0.352 0.146 0.544
BetBoom #28 0.101 0.346 0.149 0.553 0-3 PICK

How ELOHQ predicts

High-confidence ELO

For the Pickem Challenge, ELOHQ ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOHQ's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

27 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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