ELOHQ — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
ELOHQ · High-confidence ELO
🎯 ELOHQ's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELOHQ's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 3
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 4
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 5
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 7
FUT
HLTV #13
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ELOHQ's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.154 | 0.415 | 0.096 | 0.431 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.153 | 0.413 | 0.101 | 0.434 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.143 | 0.399 | 0.111 | 0.459 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.143 | 0.389 | 0.112 | 0.469 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.136 | 0.401 | 0.110 | 0.463 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.125 | 0.374 | 0.127 | 0.501 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.125 | 0.384 | 0.123 | 0.492 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.124 | 0.389 | 0.122 | 0.487 | ADVANCE |
9z
#17
|
0.122 | 0.364 | 0.128 | 0.513 | — |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.121 | 0.371 | 0.129 | 0.508 | — |
BIG
|
0.114 | 0.350 | 0.138 | 0.536 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.113 | 0.370 | 0.131 | 0.516 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.112 | 0.344 | 0.141 | 0.544 | — |
M80
|
0.111 | 0.339 | 0.139 | 0.551 | — |
MIBR
|
0.104 | 0.352 | 0.146 | 0.544 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.101 | 0.346 | 0.149 | 0.553 | 0-3 PICK |
How ELOHQ predicts
High-confidence ELO
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOHQ ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOHQ's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOHQ ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOHQ's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.