PHANTOM — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
PHANTOM · ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)
🎯 PHANTOM's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using PHANTOM's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
paiN
HLTV #19
💀 0-3
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 2
BIG
unranked
⚡ 3
9z
HLTV #17
⚡ 4
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 5
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 6
Spirit
HLTV #9
⚡ 7
FlyQuest
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by PHANTOM's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
paiN
#19
|
0.196 | 0.434 | 0.069 | 0.371 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.180 | 0.415 | 0.086 | 0.405 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.164 | 0.430 | 0.082 | 0.406 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.154 | 0.418 | 0.095 | 0.428 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.149 | 0.419 | 0.095 | 0.432 | ADVANCE |
|
BIG
|
0.140 | 0.429 | 0.093 | 0.431 | ADVANCE |
M80
|
0.139 | 0.396 | 0.101 | 0.465 | — |
|
9z
#17
|
0.139 | 0.421 | 0.106 | 0.440 | ADVANCE |
Legacy
#14
|
0.120 | 0.346 | 0.124 | 0.535 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.119 | 0.384 | 0.120 | 0.497 | — |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.118 | 0.411 | 0.106 | 0.471 | ADVANCE |
Monte
#23
|
0.102 | 0.374 | 0.124 | 0.524 | — |
FUT
#13
|
0.094 | 0.323 | 0.160 | 0.584 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.088 | 0.334 | 0.159 | 0.578 | — |
MIBR
|
0.058 | 0.261 | 0.207 | 0.681 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.043 | 0.205 | 0.274 | 0.751 | 0-3 PICK |
How PHANTOM predicts
ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)
For the Pickem Challenge, PHANTOM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by PHANTOM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, PHANTOM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by PHANTOM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.