TIER3ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
TIER3 · Top-teams ELO v3
🎯 TIER3ELO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIER3ELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 2
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 3
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 4
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 5
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 6
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 7
FUT
HLTV #13
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by TIER3ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.141 | 0.406 | 0.106 | 0.453 | 3-0 PICK |
G2
#12
|
0.137 | 0.376 | 0.116 | 0.487 | — |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.137 | 0.393 | 0.114 | 0.471 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.136 | 0.391 | 0.117 | 0.473 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.132 | 0.378 | 0.124 | 0.490 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.129 | 0.391 | 0.120 | 0.480 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.129 | 0.384 | 0.117 | 0.487 | ADVANCE |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.124 | 0.362 | 0.129 | 0.514 | — |
M80
|
0.121 | 0.362 | 0.132 | 0.518 | — |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.121 | 0.376 | 0.127 | 0.503 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.121 | 0.376 | 0.125 | 0.503 | ADVANCE |
BIG
|
0.118 | 0.362 | 0.128 | 0.520 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.117 | 0.369 | 0.130 | 0.513 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.115 | 0.358 | 0.136 | 0.528 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.114 | 0.355 | 0.142 | 0.531 | 0-3 PICK |
MIBR
|
0.110 | 0.361 | 0.138 | 0.529 | — |
How TIER3ELO predicts
Top-teams ELO v3
For the Pickem Challenge, TIER3ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER3ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, TIER3ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER3ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.