SOS — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
SOS · Rank + form + opponent strength
🎯 SOS's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SOS's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
paiN
2-3
HLTV #19
💀 0-3
MIBR
1-3
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
G2
✓ 3-1
HLTV #12
⚡ 2
Monte
✓ 3-2
HLTV #23
⚡ 3
Astralis
1-3
HLTV #10
⚡ 4
Legacy
✓ 3-2
HLTV #14
⚡ 5
TYLOO
2-3
HLTV #21
⚡ 6
B8
✓ 3-2
HLTV #20
⚡ 7
9z
✓ 3-1
HLTV #17
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SOS's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
paiN
#19
|
0.201 | 0.455 | 0.068 | 0.343 | 3-0 PICK |
|
G2
#12
|
0.176 | 0.449 | 0.080 | 0.375 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.167 | 0.420 | 0.083 | 0.413 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.161 | 0.443 | 0.086 | 0.396 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.146 | 0.436 | 0.096 | 0.418 | ADVANCE |
|
9z
#17
|
0.145 | 0.389 | 0.103 | 0.466 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.129 | 0.390 | 0.117 | 0.481 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.126 | 0.373 | 0.109 | 0.502 | — |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.124 | 0.401 | 0.122 | 0.475 | ADVANCE |
FlyQuest
|
0.116 | 0.365 | 0.131 | 0.519 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.115 | 0.351 | 0.124 | 0.533 | — |
BIG
|
0.089 | 0.327 | 0.160 | 0.584 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.084 | 0.298 | 0.166 | 0.618 | — |
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.079 | 0.319 | 0.184 | 0.602 | — |
M80
|
0.074 | 0.292 | 0.180 | 0.634 | — |
|
MIBR
|
0.069 | 0.292 | 0.190 | 0.639 | 0-3 PICK |
How SOS predicts
Rank + form + opponent strength
For the Pickem Challenge, SOS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SOS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SOS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SOS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.