VANGUARD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
VANGUARD · Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction
🎯 VANGUARD's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using VANGUARD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Legacy
HLTV #14
💀 0-3
M80
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 2
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 3
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 4
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 5
Spirit
HLTV #9
⚡ 6
FUT
HLTV #13
⚡ 7
9z
HLTV #17
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by VANGUARD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.304 | 0.541 | 0.020 | 0.155 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.277 | 0.509 | 0.024 | 0.214 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.277 | 0.551 | 0.019 | 0.172 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.276 | 0.562 | 0.021 | 0.162 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.173 | 0.486 | 0.038 | 0.341 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.145 | 0.552 | 0.052 | 0.303 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.143 | 0.510 | 0.047 | 0.347 | ADVANCE |
|
9z
#17
|
0.095 | 0.419 | 0.084 | 0.486 | ADVANCE |
B8
#20
|
0.066 | 0.358 | 0.113 | 0.576 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.053 | 0.226 | 0.171 | 0.721 | — |
paiN
#19
|
0.051 | 0.297 | 0.155 | 0.652 | — |
BIG
|
0.045 | 0.240 | 0.183 | 0.715 | — |
MIBR
|
0.038 | 0.285 | 0.169 | 0.677 | — |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.031 | 0.237 | 0.203 | 0.732 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.020 | 0.172 | 0.267 | 0.808 | — |
|
M80
|
0.007 | 0.054 | 0.435 | 0.939 | 0-3 PICK |
How VANGUARD predicts
Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, VANGUARD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by VANGUARD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, VANGUARD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by VANGUARD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.