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Top models accuracy · top-tier VANGUARD 86.1%    SENTINEL 84.1%    STRONGHOLD 83.1%    TRIBUNAL 83.0%    TIER3ELO 78.9%    NEXUS 77.4%    TIERELO 76.9%    TIER2ELO 74.6%    ELOHQ 72.7%    HIGHORACLE 70.3%   
← Back to IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem overview

VANGUARD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks

VANGUARD · Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

🎯 VANGUARD's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using VANGUARD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Legacy
HLTV #14
3% confidence
💀 0-3
M80
unranked
4% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
6% advance
⚡ 2
Astralis
HLTV #10
6% advance
⚡ 3
G2
HLTV #12
6% advance
⚡ 4
Monte
HLTV #23
5% advance
⚡ 5
Spirit
HLTV #9
5% advance
⚡ 6
FUT
HLTV #13
5% advance
⚡ 7
9z
HLTV #17
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by VANGUARD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
Legacy #14 0.304 0.541 0.020 0.155 3-0 PICK
Spirit #9 0.277 0.509 0.024 0.214 ADVANCE
G2 #12 0.277 0.551 0.019 0.172 ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22 0.276 0.562 0.021 0.162 ADVANCE
FUT #13 0.173 0.486 0.038 0.341 ADVANCE
Astralis #10 0.145 0.552 0.052 0.303 ADVANCE
Monte #23 0.143 0.510 0.047 0.347 ADVANCE
9z #17 0.095 0.419 0.084 0.486 ADVANCE
B8 #20 0.066 0.358 0.113 0.576
FlyQuest 0.053 0.226 0.171 0.721
paiN #19 0.051 0.297 0.155 0.652
BIG 0.045 0.240 0.183 0.715
MIBR 0.038 0.285 0.169 0.677
TYLOO #21 0.031 0.237 0.203 0.732
BetBoom #28 0.020 0.172 0.267 0.808
M80 0.007 0.054 0.435 0.939 0-3 PICK

How VANGUARD predicts

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

For the Pickem Challenge, VANGUARD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by VANGUARD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

27 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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