TIER2ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
TIER2 · Top-teams ELO v2
🎯 TIER2ELO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIER2ELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 3
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 4
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 5
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 7
FUT
HLTV #13
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by TIER2ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.156 | 0.413 | 0.098 | 0.432 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.144 | 0.393 | 0.107 | 0.463 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.138 | 0.401 | 0.113 | 0.460 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.134 | 0.401 | 0.114 | 0.465 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.134 | 0.390 | 0.114 | 0.477 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.128 | 0.388 | 0.116 | 0.484 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.127 | 0.381 | 0.125 | 0.492 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.125 | 0.370 | 0.121 | 0.505 | ADVANCE |
B8
#20
|
0.124 | 0.367 | 0.133 | 0.510 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.120 | 0.365 | 0.132 | 0.515 | — |
M80
|
0.120 | 0.351 | 0.141 | 0.529 | — |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.116 | 0.366 | 0.130 | 0.518 | — |
BIG
|
0.112 | 0.358 | 0.136 | 0.531 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.108 | 0.350 | 0.147 | 0.542 | 0-3 PICK |
FlyQuest
|
0.108 | 0.355 | 0.137 | 0.537 | — |
MIBR
|
0.107 | 0.353 | 0.138 | 0.541 | — |
How TIER2ELO predicts
Top-teams ELO v2
For the Pickem Challenge, TIER2ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER2ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, TIER2ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER2ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.