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← Back to IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem overview

TIER2ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks

TIER2 · Top-teams ELO v2

🎯 TIER2ELO's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIER2ELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
2% confidence
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
1% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
4% advance
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
4% advance
⚡ 3
Legacy
HLTV #14
4% advance
⚡ 4
paiN
HLTV #19
4% advance
⚡ 5
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
4% advance
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
4% advance
⚡ 7
FUT
HLTV #13
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by TIER2ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
Spirit #9 0.156 0.413 0.098 0.432 3-0 PICK
Legacy #14 0.144 0.393 0.107 0.463 ADVANCE
Astralis #10 0.138 0.401 0.113 0.460 ADVANCE
G2 #12 0.134 0.401 0.114 0.465 ADVANCE
paiN #19 0.134 0.390 0.114 0.477 ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22 0.128 0.388 0.116 0.484 ADVANCE
Monte #23 0.127 0.381 0.125 0.492 ADVANCE
FUT #13 0.125 0.370 0.121 0.505 ADVANCE
B8 #20 0.124 0.367 0.133 0.510
9z #17 0.120 0.365 0.132 0.515
M80 0.120 0.351 0.141 0.529
TYLOO #21 0.116 0.366 0.130 0.518
BIG 0.112 0.358 0.136 0.531
BetBoom #28 0.108 0.350 0.147 0.542 0-3 PICK
FlyQuest 0.108 0.355 0.137 0.537
MIBR 0.107 0.353 0.138 0.541

How TIER2ELO predicts

Top-teams ELO v2

For the Pickem Challenge, TIER2ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER2ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

27 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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