SURGE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
SURGE · Best-improving player K-D trajectory across team starters
🎯 SURGE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SURGE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 2
FUT
HLTV #13
⚡ 3
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 4
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 5
9z
HLTV #17
⚡ 6
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 7
paiN
HLTV #19
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SURGE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.311 | 0.499 | 0.026 | 0.190 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.256 | 0.504 | 0.040 | 0.240 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.203 | 0.494 | 0.054 | 0.304 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.190 | 0.486 | 0.061 | 0.324 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.176 | 0.498 | 0.059 | 0.326 | ADVANCE |
|
9z
#17
|
0.123 | 0.428 | 0.094 | 0.449 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.107 | 0.366 | 0.106 | 0.527 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.107 | 0.373 | 0.114 | 0.520 | ADVANCE |
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.090 | 0.365 | 0.139 | 0.545 | — |
MIBR
|
0.077 | 0.336 | 0.153 | 0.587 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.077 | 0.285 | 0.158 | 0.638 | — |
M80
|
0.072 | 0.311 | 0.161 | 0.617 | — |
BIG
|
0.068 | 0.297 | 0.169 | 0.635 | — |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.062 | 0.295 | 0.176 | 0.643 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.052 | 0.269 | 0.201 | 0.679 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.029 | 0.195 | 0.288 | 0.776 | 0-3 PICK |
How SURGE predicts
Best-improving player K-D trajectory across team starters
For the Pickem Challenge, SURGE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SURGE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SURGE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SURGE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.