NEXUS — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
NEXUS · APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction
🎯 NEXUS's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using NEXUS's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
paiN
HLTV #19
💀 0-3
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
9z
HLTV #17
⚡ 2
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ 4
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 5
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 6
M80
unranked
⚡ 7
BIG
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by NEXUS's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
paiN
#19
|
0.319 | 0.507 | 0.010 | 0.175 | 3-0 PICK |
|
9z
#17
|
0.270 | 0.532 | 0.024 | 0.198 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.250 | 0.511 | 0.026 | 0.239 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.201 | 0.496 | 0.039 | 0.303 | ADVANCE |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.188 | 0.503 | 0.045 | 0.309 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.167 | 0.495 | 0.048 | 0.339 | ADVANCE |
|
M80
|
0.129 | 0.456 | 0.062 | 0.415 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.089 | 0.405 | 0.096 | 0.506 | — |
|
BIG
|
0.083 | 0.429 | 0.089 | 0.488 | ADVANCE |
Legacy
#14
|
0.082 | 0.307 | 0.104 | 0.611 | — |
Spirit
#9
|
0.073 | 0.356 | 0.128 | 0.571 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.062 | 0.364 | 0.121 | 0.574 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.041 | 0.265 | 0.157 | 0.694 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.026 | 0.199 | 0.240 | 0.775 | — |
MIBR
|
0.018 | 0.135 | 0.279 | 0.848 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.003 | 0.041 | 0.534 | 0.956 | 0-3 PICK |
How NEXUS predicts
APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, NEXUS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by NEXUS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, NEXUS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by NEXUS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.