ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
ELO · Team ELO rating
🎯 ELO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 3
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 4
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 5
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 7
FUT
HLTV #13
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.280 | 0.484 | 0.036 | 0.236 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.217 | 0.502 | 0.054 | 0.281 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.191 | 0.447 | 0.066 | 0.363 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.174 | 0.485 | 0.070 | 0.341 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.173 | 0.456 | 0.074 | 0.371 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.129 | 0.428 | 0.113 | 0.444 | ADVANCE |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.116 | 0.416 | 0.115 | 0.468 | ADVANCE |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.111 | 0.371 | 0.115 | 0.519 | ADVANCE |
B8
#20
|
0.107 | 0.360 | 0.121 | 0.533 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.100 | 0.351 | 0.124 | 0.549 | — |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.089 | 0.356 | 0.145 | 0.555 | — |
M80
|
0.076 | 0.286 | 0.164 | 0.638 | — |
BIG
|
0.066 | 0.280 | 0.176 | 0.654 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.066 | 0.268 | 0.187 | 0.666 | — |
MIBR
|
0.057 | 0.259 | 0.213 | 0.684 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.050 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.700 | 0-3 PICK |
How ELO predicts
Team ELO rating
For the Pickem Challenge, ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.