ELOFACE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
ELOFACE · ELO + training activity
🎯 ELOFACE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELOFACE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
⚡ 3
paiN
HLTV #19
⚡ 4
Legacy
HLTV #14
⚡ 5
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 7
TYLOO
HLTV #21
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ELOFACE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.231 | 0.476 | 0.052 | 0.293 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.196 | 0.464 | 0.070 | 0.341 | ADVANCE |
|
G2
#12
|
0.169 | 0.446 | 0.082 | 0.385 | ADVANCE |
|
Legacy
#14
|
0.167 | 0.418 | 0.084 | 0.415 | ADVANCE |
|
paiN
#19
|
0.159 | 0.428 | 0.086 | 0.413 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.121 | 0.410 | 0.124 | 0.470 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.117 | 0.366 | 0.127 | 0.517 | — |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.114 | 0.389 | 0.120 | 0.498 | ADVANCE |
B8
#20
|
0.113 | 0.358 | 0.126 | 0.529 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.111 | 0.360 | 0.127 | 0.529 | — |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.105 | 0.367 | 0.134 | 0.529 | ADVANCE |
BIG
|
0.091 | 0.315 | 0.159 | 0.594 | — |
M80
|
0.086 | 0.312 | 0.161 | 0.603 | — |
MIBR
|
0.078 | 0.292 | 0.183 | 0.630 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.075 | 0.307 | 0.173 | 0.618 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.070 | 0.293 | 0.193 | 0.637 | 0-3 PICK |
How ELOFACE predicts
ELO + training activity
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOFACE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOFACE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOFACE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOFACE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.