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← Back to IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem overview

ELOFACE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks

ELOFACE · ELO + training activity

🎯 ELOFACE's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELOFACE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Spirit
HLTV #9
2% confidence
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
2% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Astralis
HLTV #10
5% advance
⚡ 2
G2
HLTV #12
4% advance
⚡ 3
paiN
HLTV #19
4% advance
⚡ 4
Legacy
HLTV #14
4% advance
⚡ 5
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
4% advance
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
4% advance
⚡ 7
TYLOO
HLTV #21
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by ELOFACE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
Spirit #9 0.231 0.476 0.052 0.293 3-0 PICK
Astralis #10 0.196 0.464 0.070 0.341 ADVANCE
G2 #12 0.169 0.446 0.082 0.385 ADVANCE
Legacy #14 0.167 0.418 0.084 0.415 ADVANCE
paiN #19 0.159 0.428 0.086 0.413 ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22 0.121 0.410 0.124 0.470 ADVANCE
FUT #13 0.117 0.366 0.127 0.517
Monte #23 0.114 0.389 0.120 0.498 ADVANCE
B8 #20 0.113 0.358 0.126 0.529
9z #17 0.111 0.360 0.127 0.529
TYLOO #21 0.105 0.367 0.134 0.529 ADVANCE
BIG 0.091 0.315 0.159 0.594
M80 0.086 0.312 0.161 0.603
MIBR 0.078 0.292 0.183 0.630
FlyQuest 0.075 0.307 0.173 0.618
BetBoom #28 0.070 0.293 0.193 0.637 0-3 PICK

How ELOFACE predicts

ELO + training activity

For the Pickem Challenge, ELOFACE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOFACE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

27 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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