ORACLE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 Pickem Picks
ORACLE · ELO + ELOHQ + Form + Tilt + SOS
🎯 ORACLE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ORACLE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
paiN
HLTV #19
💀 0-3
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 2
Astralis
HLTV #10
⚡ 3
BIG
unranked
⚡ 4
9z
HLTV #17
⚡ 5
FlyQuest
unranked
⚡ 6
Monte
HLTV #23
⚡ 7
B8
HLTV #20
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ORACLE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
paiN
#19
|
0.251 | 0.463 | 0.040 | 0.286 | 3-0 PICK |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.196 | 0.471 | 0.059 | 0.333 | ADVANCE |
|
Astralis
#10
|
0.187 | 0.468 | 0.061 | 0.345 | ADVANCE |
Legacy
#14
|
0.141 | 0.374 | 0.095 | 0.486 | — |
|
9z
#17
|
0.137 | 0.435 | 0.085 | 0.428 | ADVANCE |
|
BIG
|
0.136 | 0.448 | 0.085 | 0.416 | ADVANCE |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.133 | 0.434 | 0.082 | 0.433 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.130 | 0.408 | 0.097 | 0.463 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.121 | 0.378 | 0.113 | 0.501 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.117 | 0.372 | 0.115 | 0.511 | — |
M80
|
0.116 | 0.401 | 0.097 | 0.483 | — |
|
Monte
#23
|
0.115 | 0.428 | 0.105 | 0.457 | ADVANCE |
Spirit
#9
|
0.082 | 0.295 | 0.165 | 0.623 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.080 | 0.310 | 0.160 | 0.611 | — |
MIBR
|
0.043 | 0.212 | 0.240 | 0.745 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.016 | 0.105 | 0.400 | 0.879 | 0-3 PICK |
How ORACLE predicts
ELO + ELOHQ + Form + Tilt + SOS
For the Pickem Challenge, ORACLE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ORACLE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ORACLE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ORACLE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.