APEX — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
APEX · ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)
🎯 APEX's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using APEX's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
BIG
unranked
💀 0-3
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
FlyQuest
unranked
⚡ 2
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 3
Lynn Vision
unranked
⚡ 4
NRG
HLTV #25
⚡ 5
HEROIC
HLTV #16
⚡ 6
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 7
M80
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by APEX's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BIG
|
0.227 | 0.468 | 0.045 | 0.304 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Lynn Vision
|
0.214 | 0.480 | 0.050 | 0.306 | ADVANCE |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.188 | 0.404 | 0.053 | 0.408 | — |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.180 | 0.517 | 0.044 | 0.303 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.178 | 0.490 | 0.064 | 0.332 | ADVANCE |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.165 | 0.475 | 0.067 | 0.360 | ADVANCE |
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.134 | 0.442 | 0.096 | 0.424 | ADVANCE |
|
M80
|
0.128 | 0.417 | 0.102 | 0.455 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.127 | 0.418 | 0.103 | 0.455 | ADVANCE |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.108 | 0.350 | 0.123 | 0.542 | — |
Sharks
|
0.100 | 0.326 | 0.121 | 0.575 | — |
Liquid
#18
|
0.074 | 0.298 | 0.163 | 0.628 | — |
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.070 | 0.333 | 0.142 | 0.597 | — |
MIBR
|
0.054 | 0.252 | 0.210 | 0.694 | — |
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.044 | 0.254 | 0.180 | 0.702 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.011 | 0.075 | 0.438 | 0.914 | 0-3 PICK |
How APEX predicts
ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)
For the Pickem Challenge, APEX ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by APEX's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, APEX ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by APEX's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.