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TIERELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

TIER · ELO for top-30 teams

🎯 TIERELO's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIERELO's match-level priors

🏆 3-0

HEROIC

HLTV #16

1% confidence

💀 0-3

MIBR

unranked

1% confidence

⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks

⚡ 1

Lynn Vision

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 2

NRG

HLTV #25

4% advance

⚡ 3

TYLOO

HLTV #21

4% advance

⚡ 4

THUNDER dOWNUNDER

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 5

SINNERS

HLTV #27

4% advance

⚡ 6

Sharks

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 7

GamerLegion

HLTV #22

4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by TIERELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.

Team	P(3-0)	P(Advance)	P(0-3)	P(Eliminate)	Picked as
HEROIC #16	0.135	0.386	0.118	0.479	3-0 PICK
TYLOO #21	0.132	0.384	0.119	0.483	ADVANCE
Lynn Vision	0.132	0.388	0.114	0.480	ADVANCE
FlyQuest	0.130	0.372	0.125	0.498	—
THUNDER dOWNUNDER	0.130	0.383	0.117	0.487	ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22	0.130	0.377	0.123	0.494	ADVANCE
SINNERS #27	0.128	0.381	0.121	0.491	ADVANCE
B8 #20	0.127	0.366	0.126	0.508	—
Sharks	0.125	0.377	0.123	0.498	ADVANCE
NRG #25	0.124	0.385	0.120	0.491	ADVANCE
MIBR	0.122	0.358	0.138	0.521	0-3 PICK
BetBoom #28	0.121	0.363	0.135	0.517	—
M80	0.119	0.371	0.127	0.510	—
Liquid #18	0.118	0.360	0.129	0.522	—
BIG	0.116	0.376	0.133	0.508	—
Gaimin Gladiators	0.112	0.374	0.132	0.514	—

How TIERELO predicts

ELO for top-30 teams

For the Pickem Challenge, TIERELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIERELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.