ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
ELO · Team ELO rating
🎯 ELO's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
💀 0-3
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 2
NRG
HLTV #25
⚡ 3
Lynn Vision
unranked
⚡ 4
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
⚡ 5
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 6
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 7
FlyQuest
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.178 | 0.462 | 0.072 | 0.361 | 3-0 PICK |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.169 | 0.441 | 0.086 | 0.390 | ADVANCE |
|
Lynn Vision
|
0.165 | 0.424 | 0.081 | 0.411 | ADVANCE |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.158 | 0.432 | 0.099 | 0.410 | ADVANCE |
|
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.155 | 0.411 | 0.098 | 0.435 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.140 | 0.409 | 0.102 | 0.451 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.135 | 0.391 | 0.113 | 0.474 | ADVANCE |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.119 | 0.383 | 0.126 | 0.498 | ADVANCE |
Sharks
|
0.112 | 0.340 | 0.139 | 0.548 | — |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.109 | 0.374 | 0.134 | 0.517 | — |
BIG
|
0.102 | 0.356 | 0.139 | 0.542 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.101 | 0.328 | 0.146 | 0.571 | — |
MIBR
|
0.099 | 0.327 | 0.153 | 0.575 | — |
M80
|
0.093 | 0.335 | 0.160 | 0.572 | — |
Liquid
#18
|
0.088 | 0.296 | 0.164 | 0.616 | — |
|
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.076 | 0.293 | 0.187 | 0.630 | 0-3 PICK |
How ELO predicts
Team ELO rating
For the Pickem Challenge, ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.