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FORM — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

FORM · Win rate last 10 matches

🎯 FORM's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using FORM's match-level priors

🏆 3-0

GamerLegion

HLTV #22

4% confidence

💀 0-3

BIG

unranked

2% confidence

⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks

⚡ 1

THUNDER dOWNUNDER

unranked

5% advance

⚡ 2

Sharks

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 3

HEROIC

HLTV #16

4% advance

⚡ 4

NRG

HLTV #25

4% advance

⚡ 5

SINNERS

HLTV #27

4% advance

⚡ 6

FlyQuest

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 7

Liquid

HLTV #18

4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by FORM's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.

Team	P(3-0)	P(Advance)	P(0-3)	P(Eliminate)	Picked as
GamerLegion #22	0.356	0.494	0.021	0.150	3-0 PICK
THUNDER dOWNUNDER	0.198	0.502	0.051	0.300	ADVANCE
Sharks	0.161	0.446	0.079	0.393	ADVANCE
HEROIC #16	0.160	0.436	0.090	0.404	ADVANCE
Liquid #18	0.134	0.386	0.104	0.480	ADVANCE
NRG #25	0.127	0.424	0.107	0.450	ADVANCE
M80	0.119	0.359	0.121	0.522	—
FlyQuest	0.095	0.393	0.115	0.512	ADVANCE
Lynn Vision	0.095	0.313	0.150	0.592	—
Gaimin Gladiators	0.089	0.343	0.137	0.568	—
SINNERS #27	0.087	0.405	0.140	0.508	ADVANCE
MIBR	0.087	0.322	0.163	0.591	—
BetBoom #28	0.082	0.295	0.181	0.623	—
TYLOO #21	0.079	0.307	0.166	0.615	—
B8 #20	0.071	0.276	0.179	0.653	—
BIG	0.062	0.300	0.196	0.639	0-3 PICK

How FORM predicts

Win rate last 10 matches

For the Pickem Challenge, FORM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by FORM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.