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Match Prediction Engine

FORM — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

FORM · Win rate last 10 matches

🎯 FORM's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using FORM's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
4% confidence
💀 0-3
BIG
unranked
2% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
5% advance
⚡ 2
Sharks
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 3
HEROIC
HLTV #16
4% advance
⚡ 4
NRG
HLTV #25
4% advance
⚡ 5
SINNERS
HLTV #27
4% advance
⚡ 6
FlyQuest
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 7
Liquid
HLTV #18
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by FORM's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
GamerLegion #22 0.356 0.494 0.021 0.150 3-0 PICK
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.198 0.502 0.051 0.300 ADVANCE
Sharks 0.161 0.446 0.079 0.393 ADVANCE
HEROIC #16 0.160 0.436 0.090 0.404 ADVANCE
Liquid #18 0.134 0.386 0.104 0.480 ADVANCE
NRG #25 0.127 0.424 0.107 0.450 ADVANCE
M80 0.119 0.359 0.121 0.522
FlyQuest 0.095 0.393 0.115 0.512 ADVANCE
Lynn Vision 0.095 0.313 0.150 0.592
Gaimin Gladiators 0.089 0.343 0.137 0.568
SINNERS #27 0.087 0.405 0.140 0.508 ADVANCE
MIBR 0.087 0.322 0.163 0.591
BetBoom #28 0.082 0.295 0.181 0.623
TYLOO #21 0.079 0.307 0.166 0.615
B8 #20 0.071 0.276 0.179 0.653
BIG 0.062 0.300 0.196 0.639 0-3 PICK

How FORM predicts

Win rate last 10 matches

For the Pickem Challenge, FORM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by FORM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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