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TIER2ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

TIER2 · Top-teams ELO v2

🎯 TIER2ELO's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIER2ELO's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
1% confidence
💀 0-3
BIG
unranked
1% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
NRG
HLTV #25
4% advance
⚡ 2
SINNERS
HLTV #27
4% advance
⚡ 3
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 4
FlyQuest
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 5
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
4% advance
⚡ 6
Lynn Vision
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 7
Sharks
unranked
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by TIER2ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
HEROIC #16 0.140 0.386 0.113 0.474 3-0 PICK
Lynn Vision 0.136 0.377 0.122 0.487 ADVANCE
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.135 0.386 0.115 0.479 ADVANCE
TYLOO #21 0.135 0.375 0.121 0.489
FlyQuest 0.126 0.384 0.124 0.490 ADVANCE
B8 #20 0.124 0.368 0.126 0.508
BetBoom #28 0.124 0.359 0.128 0.517
M80 0.123 0.367 0.125 0.510
NRG #25 0.123 0.390 0.123 0.487 ADVANCE
MIBR 0.123 0.371 0.129 0.507
Sharks 0.122 0.376 0.127 0.503 ADVANCE
SINNERS #27 0.121 0.389 0.121 0.490 ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22 0.121 0.379 0.131 0.500 ADVANCE
Gaimin Gladiators 0.116 0.363 0.132 0.520
Liquid #18 0.116 0.360 0.126 0.524
BIG 0.112 0.371 0.137 0.517 0-3 PICK

How TIER2ELO predicts

Top-teams ELO v2

For the Pickem Challenge, TIER2ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER2ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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