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TIER2ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

TIER2 · Top-teams ELO v2

🎯 TIER2ELO's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIER2ELO's match-level priors

🏆 3-0

HEROIC

HLTV #16

1% confidence

💀 0-3

BIG

unranked

1% confidence

⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks

⚡ 1

NRG

HLTV #25

4% advance

⚡ 2

SINNERS

HLTV #27

4% advance

⚡ 3

THUNDER dOWNUNDER

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 4

FlyQuest

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 5

GamerLegion

HLTV #22

4% advance

⚡ 6

Lynn Vision

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 7

Sharks

unranked

4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by TIER2ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.

Team	P(3-0)	P(Advance)	P(0-3)	P(Eliminate)	Picked as
HEROIC #16	0.140	0.386	0.113	0.474	3-0 PICK
Lynn Vision	0.136	0.377	0.122	0.487	ADVANCE
THUNDER dOWNUNDER	0.135	0.386	0.115	0.479	ADVANCE
TYLOO #21	0.135	0.375	0.121	0.489	—
FlyQuest	0.126	0.384	0.124	0.490	ADVANCE
B8 #20	0.124	0.368	0.126	0.508	—
BetBoom #28	0.124	0.359	0.128	0.517	—
M80	0.123	0.367	0.125	0.510	—
NRG #25	0.123	0.390	0.123	0.487	ADVANCE
MIBR	0.123	0.371	0.129	0.507	—
Sharks	0.122	0.376	0.127	0.503	ADVANCE
SINNERS #27	0.121	0.389	0.121	0.490	ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22	0.121	0.379	0.131	0.500	ADVANCE
Gaimin Gladiators	0.116	0.363	0.132	0.520	—
Liquid #18	0.116	0.360	0.126	0.524	—
BIG	0.112	0.371	0.137	0.517	0-3 PICK

How TIER2ELO predicts

Top-teams ELO v2

For the Pickem Challenge, TIER2ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER2ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.