SENTINEL — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
SENTINEL · Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction
🎯 SENTINEL's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SENTINEL's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
B8
✓ 3-0
HLTV #20
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-0
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
HEROIC
1-3
HLTV #16
⚡ 2
NRG
2-3
HLTV #25
⚡ 3
TYLOO
✓ 3-2
HLTV #21
⚡ 4
Liquid
2-3
HLTV #18
⚡ 5
MIBR
✓ 3-1
unranked
⚡ 6
Gaimin Gladiators
0-3
unranked
⚡ 7
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
1-3
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SENTINEL's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
B8
#20
|
0.319 | 0.503 | 0.025 | 0.178 | 3-0 PICK |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.306 | 0.498 | 0.029 | 0.196 | ADVANCE |
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.232 | 0.549 | 0.044 | 0.219 | ADVANCE |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.178 | 0.543 | 0.057 | 0.279 | ADVANCE |
|
Liquid
#18
|
0.134 | 0.407 | 0.086 | 0.459 | ADVANCE |
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.110 | 0.337 | 0.120 | 0.553 | — |
BIG
|
0.089 | 0.335 | 0.137 | 0.575 | — |
Lynn Vision
|
0.089 | 0.335 | 0.140 | 0.576 | — |
|
MIBR
|
0.088 | 0.352 | 0.139 | 0.560 | ADVANCE |
|
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.085 | 0.349 | 0.127 | 0.567 | ADVANCE |
Sharks
|
0.084 | 0.335 | 0.138 | 0.582 | — |
|
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.083 | 0.349 | 0.127 | 0.568 | ADVANCE |
M80
|
0.055 | 0.328 | 0.194 | 0.617 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.055 | 0.327 | 0.177 | 0.619 | — |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.049 | 0.232 | 0.212 | 0.719 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.044 | 0.223 | 0.247 | 0.733 | 0-3 PICK |
How SENTINEL predicts
Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction
For the Pickem Challenge, SENTINEL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SENTINEL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SENTINEL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SENTINEL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.