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VANGUARD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

VANGUARD · Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

🎯 VANGUARD's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using VANGUARD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
2% confidence
💀 0-3
M80
unranked
3% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Liquid
HLTV #18
4% advance
⚡ 2
B8
HLTV #20
4% advance
⚡ 3
TYLOO
HLTV #21
4% advance
⚡ 4
Lynn Vision
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 5
Sharks
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 6
MIBR
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 7
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by VANGUARD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
HEROIC #16 0.213 0.461 0.058 0.326 3-0 PICK
Liquid #18 0.203 0.438 0.060 0.359 ADVANCE
B8 #20 0.189 0.427 0.061 0.384 ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22 0.136 0.386 0.106 0.479
TYLOO #21 0.133 0.416 0.102 0.451 ADVANCE
BIG 0.131 0.400 0.103 0.469
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.130 0.404 0.108 0.466
Gaimin Gladiators 0.126 0.406 0.111 0.468 ADVANCE
Sharks 0.125 0.408 0.101 0.466 ADVANCE
Lynn Vision 0.125 0.415 0.102 0.460 ADVANCE
FlyQuest 0.125 0.393 0.103 0.482
MIBR 0.120 0.406 0.106 0.475 ADVANCE
NRG #25 0.081 0.318 0.166 0.601
SINNERS #27 0.078 0.300 0.161 0.623
BetBoom #28 0.061 0.284 0.209 0.655
M80 0.024 0.139 0.343 0.837 0-3 PICK

How VANGUARD predicts

Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction

For the Pickem Challenge, VANGUARD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by VANGUARD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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