VANGUARD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
VANGUARD · Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction
🎯 VANGUARD's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using VANGUARD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
💀 0-3
M80
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Liquid
HLTV #18
⚡ 2
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 3
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 4
Lynn Vision
unranked
⚡ 5
Sharks
unranked
⚡ 6
MIBR
unranked
⚡ 7
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by VANGUARD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.213 | 0.461 | 0.058 | 0.326 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Liquid
#18
|
0.203 | 0.438 | 0.060 | 0.359 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.189 | 0.427 | 0.061 | 0.384 | ADVANCE |
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.136 | 0.386 | 0.106 | 0.479 | — |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.133 | 0.416 | 0.102 | 0.451 | ADVANCE |
BIG
|
0.131 | 0.400 | 0.103 | 0.469 | — |
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.130 | 0.404 | 0.108 | 0.466 | — |
|
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.126 | 0.406 | 0.111 | 0.468 | ADVANCE |
|
Sharks
|
0.125 | 0.408 | 0.101 | 0.466 | ADVANCE |
|
Lynn Vision
|
0.125 | 0.415 | 0.102 | 0.460 | ADVANCE |
FlyQuest
|
0.125 | 0.393 | 0.103 | 0.482 | — |
|
MIBR
|
0.120 | 0.406 | 0.106 | 0.475 | ADVANCE |
NRG
#25
|
0.081 | 0.318 | 0.166 | 0.601 | — |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.078 | 0.300 | 0.161 | 0.623 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.061 | 0.284 | 0.209 | 0.655 | — |
|
M80
|
0.024 | 0.139 | 0.343 | 0.837 | 0-3 PICK |
How VANGUARD predicts
Sharp consensus: ELO + WR10 both >65% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, VANGUARD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by VANGUARD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, VANGUARD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by VANGUARD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.