PHANTOM — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
PHANTOM · ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)
🎯 PHANTOM's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using PHANTOM's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
FlyQuest
unranked
💀 0-3
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 2
Lynn Vision
unranked
⚡ 3
BIG
unranked
⚡ 4
HEROIC
HLTV #16
⚡ 5
NRG
HLTV #25
⚡ 6
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 7
SINNERS
HLTV #27
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by PHANTOM's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FlyQuest
|
0.232 | 0.523 | 0.042 | 0.245 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Lynn Vision
|
0.229 | 0.470 | 0.048 | 0.301 | ADVANCE |
|
BIG
|
0.201 | 0.460 | 0.058 | 0.340 | ADVANCE |
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.160 | 0.458 | 0.078 | 0.383 | ADVANCE |
|
SINNERS
#27
|
0.155 | 0.408 | 0.076 | 0.437 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.147 | 0.484 | 0.083 | 0.369 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.139 | 0.408 | 0.097 | 0.453 | ADVANCE |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.132 | 0.444 | 0.096 | 0.423 | ADVANCE |
M80
|
0.129 | 0.406 | 0.107 | 0.466 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.114 | 0.353 | 0.115 | 0.534 | — |
Sharks
|
0.077 | 0.273 | 0.173 | 0.651 | — |
Liquid
#18
|
0.072 | 0.288 | 0.179 | 0.640 | — |
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.070 | 0.313 | 0.177 | 0.617 | — |
MIBR
|
0.060 | 0.252 | 0.191 | 0.689 | — |
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.053 | 0.277 | 0.197 | 0.670 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.032 | 0.185 | 0.282 | 0.783 | 0-3 PICK |
How PHANTOM predicts
ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)
For the Pickem Challenge, PHANTOM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by PHANTOM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, PHANTOM ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by PHANTOM's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.