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Match Prediction Engine

SOS — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

SOS · Rank + form + opponent strength

🎯 SOS's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SOS's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
2% confidence
💀 0-3
MIBR
unranked
2% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
TYLOO
HLTV #21
5% advance
⚡ 2
SINNERS
HLTV #27
4% advance
⚡ 3
FlyQuest
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 4
B8
HLTV #20
4% advance
⚡ 5
Liquid
HLTV #18
4% advance
⚡ 6
NRG
HLTV #25
4% advance
⚡ 7
Sharks
unranked
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by SOS's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
HEROIC #16 0.229 0.488 0.053 0.283 3-0 PICK
B8 #20 0.168 0.417 0.083 0.415 ADVANCE
TYLOO #21 0.166 0.464 0.082 0.370 ADVANCE
SINNERS #27 0.159 0.420 0.090 0.421 ADVANCE
Liquid #18 0.146 0.405 0.098 0.449 ADVANCE
FlyQuest 0.137 0.419 0.101 0.445 ADVANCE
Lynn Vision 0.132 0.371 0.106 0.497
Sharks 0.129 0.378 0.112 0.493 ADVANCE
BIG 0.115 0.371 0.124 0.513
NRG #25 0.111 0.390 0.130 0.499 ADVANCE
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.103 0.346 0.142 0.551
GamerLegion #22 0.088 0.325 0.172 0.587
Gaimin Gladiators 0.088 0.307 0.166 0.606
BetBoom #28 0.087 0.326 0.161 0.588
MIBR 0.072 0.275 0.195 0.653 0-3 PICK
M80 0.072 0.299 0.184 0.629

How SOS predicts

Rank + form + opponent strength

For the Pickem Challenge, SOS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SOS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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