SOS — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
SOS · Rank + form + opponent strength
🎯 SOS's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SOS's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
💀 0-3
MIBR
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 2
SINNERS
HLTV #27
⚡ 3
FlyQuest
unranked
⚡ 4
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 5
Liquid
HLTV #18
⚡ 6
NRG
HLTV #25
⚡ 7
Sharks
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SOS's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.229 | 0.488 | 0.053 | 0.283 | 3-0 PICK |
|
B8
#20
|
0.168 | 0.417 | 0.083 | 0.415 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.166 | 0.464 | 0.082 | 0.370 | ADVANCE |
|
SINNERS
#27
|
0.159 | 0.420 | 0.090 | 0.421 | ADVANCE |
|
Liquid
#18
|
0.146 | 0.405 | 0.098 | 0.449 | ADVANCE |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.137 | 0.419 | 0.101 | 0.445 | ADVANCE |
Lynn Vision
|
0.132 | 0.371 | 0.106 | 0.497 | — |
|
Sharks
|
0.129 | 0.378 | 0.112 | 0.493 | ADVANCE |
BIG
|
0.115 | 0.371 | 0.124 | 0.513 | — |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.111 | 0.390 | 0.130 | 0.499 | ADVANCE |
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.103 | 0.346 | 0.142 | 0.551 | — |
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.088 | 0.325 | 0.172 | 0.587 | — |
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.088 | 0.307 | 0.166 | 0.606 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.087 | 0.326 | 0.161 | 0.588 | — |
|
MIBR
|
0.072 | 0.275 | 0.195 | 0.653 | 0-3 PICK |
M80
|
0.072 | 0.299 | 0.184 | 0.629 | — |
How SOS predicts
Rank + form + opponent strength
For the Pickem Challenge, SOS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SOS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SOS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SOS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.