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Match Prediction Engine

NEXUS — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

NEXUS · APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

🎯 NEXUS's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using NEXUS's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
3% confidence
💀 0-3
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
4% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
NRG
HLTV #25
5% advance
⚡ 2
TYLOO
HLTV #21
5% advance
⚡ 3
M80
unranked
5% advance
⚡ 4
Lynn Vision
unranked
5% advance
⚡ 5
BIG
unranked
5% advance
⚡ 6
SINNERS
HLTV #27
5% advance
⚡ 7
FlyQuest
unranked
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by NEXUS's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
HEROIC #16 0.285 0.557 0.020 0.158 3-0 PICK
BIG 0.272 0.494 0.015 0.234 ADVANCE
TYLOO #21 0.243 0.544 0.025 0.213 ADVANCE
SINNERS #27 0.211 0.494 0.023 0.295 ADVANCE
Lynn Vision 0.202 0.515 0.036 0.283 ADVANCE
M80 0.189 0.519 0.045 0.292 ADVANCE
NRG #25 0.145 0.546 0.051 0.309 ADVANCE
Sharks 0.108 0.381 0.075 0.511
B8 #20 0.083 0.404 0.092 0.513
Gaimin Gladiators 0.072 0.386 0.115 0.542
BetBoom #28 0.069 0.274 0.123 0.657
FlyQuest 0.064 0.431 0.084 0.505 ADVANCE
Liquid #18 0.022 0.136 0.279 0.842
MIBR 0.019 0.141 0.307 0.840
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.010 0.107 0.313 0.883
GamerLegion #22 0.006 0.072 0.398 0.922 0-3 PICK

How NEXUS predicts

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

For the Pickem Challenge, NEXUS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by NEXUS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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