NEXUS — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
NEXUS · APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction
🎯 NEXUS's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using NEXUS's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
💀 0-3
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
NRG
HLTV #25
⚡ 2
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 3
M80
unranked
⚡ 4
Lynn Vision
unranked
⚡ 5
BIG
unranked
⚡ 6
SINNERS
HLTV #27
⚡ 7
FlyQuest
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by NEXUS's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.285 | 0.557 | 0.020 | 0.158 | 3-0 PICK |
|
BIG
|
0.272 | 0.494 | 0.015 | 0.234 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.243 | 0.544 | 0.025 | 0.213 | ADVANCE |
|
SINNERS
#27
|
0.211 | 0.494 | 0.023 | 0.295 | ADVANCE |
|
Lynn Vision
|
0.202 | 0.515 | 0.036 | 0.283 | ADVANCE |
|
M80
|
0.189 | 0.519 | 0.045 | 0.292 | ADVANCE |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.145 | 0.546 | 0.051 | 0.309 | ADVANCE |
Sharks
|
0.108 | 0.381 | 0.075 | 0.511 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.083 | 0.404 | 0.092 | 0.513 | — |
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.072 | 0.386 | 0.115 | 0.542 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.069 | 0.274 | 0.123 | 0.657 | — |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.064 | 0.431 | 0.084 | 0.505 | ADVANCE |
Liquid
#18
|
0.022 | 0.136 | 0.279 | 0.842 | — |
MIBR
|
0.019 | 0.141 | 0.307 | 0.840 | — |
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.010 | 0.107 | 0.313 | 0.883 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.006 | 0.072 | 0.398 | 0.922 | 0-3 PICK |
How NEXUS predicts
APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, NEXUS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by NEXUS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, NEXUS ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by NEXUS's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.