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Match Prediction Engine

ELOFACE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

ELOFACE · ELO + training activity

🎯 ELOFACE's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELOFACE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
2% confidence
💀 0-3
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
2% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
TYLOO
HLTV #21
4% advance
⚡ 2
NRG
HLTV #25
4% advance
⚡ 3
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 4
Lynn Vision
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 5
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
4% advance
⚡ 6
FlyQuest
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 7
B8
HLTV #20
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by ELOFACE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
HEROIC #16 0.158 0.435 0.093 0.407 3-0 PICK
Lynn Vision 0.156 0.401 0.097 0.443 ADVANCE
TYLOO #21 0.154 0.415 0.100 0.432 ADVANCE
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.148 0.404 0.105 0.448 ADVANCE
NRG #25 0.148 0.411 0.108 0.441 ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22 0.130 0.394 0.114 0.475 ADVANCE
B8 #20 0.126 0.385 0.119 0.489 ADVANCE
FlyQuest 0.120 0.389 0.129 0.491 ADVANCE
Sharks 0.119 0.357 0.126 0.525
SINNERS #27 0.118 0.375 0.123 0.507
BIG 0.111 0.365 0.136 0.524
M80 0.109 0.349 0.148 0.541
BetBoom #28 0.109 0.337 0.142 0.554
MIBR 0.104 0.340 0.145 0.556
Liquid #18 0.099 0.317 0.155 0.584
Gaimin Gladiators 0.090 0.325 0.158 0.585 0-3 PICK

How ELOFACE predicts

ELO + training activity

For the Pickem Challenge, ELOFACE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOFACE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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