ELOFACE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
ELOFACE · ELO + training activity
🎯 ELOFACE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELOFACE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
💀 0-3
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 2
NRG
HLTV #25
⚡ 3
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
⚡ 4
Lynn Vision
unranked
⚡ 5
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 6
FlyQuest
unranked
⚡ 7
B8
HLTV #20
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ELOFACE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.158 | 0.435 | 0.093 | 0.407 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Lynn Vision
|
0.156 | 0.401 | 0.097 | 0.443 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.154 | 0.415 | 0.100 | 0.432 | ADVANCE |
|
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.148 | 0.404 | 0.105 | 0.448 | ADVANCE |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.148 | 0.411 | 0.108 | 0.441 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.130 | 0.394 | 0.114 | 0.475 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.126 | 0.385 | 0.119 | 0.489 | ADVANCE |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.120 | 0.389 | 0.129 | 0.491 | ADVANCE |
Sharks
|
0.119 | 0.357 | 0.126 | 0.525 | — |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.118 | 0.375 | 0.123 | 0.507 | — |
BIG
|
0.111 | 0.365 | 0.136 | 0.524 | — |
M80
|
0.109 | 0.349 | 0.148 | 0.541 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.109 | 0.337 | 0.142 | 0.554 | — |
MIBR
|
0.104 | 0.340 | 0.145 | 0.556 | — |
Liquid
#18
|
0.099 | 0.317 | 0.155 | 0.584 | — |
|
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.090 | 0.325 | 0.158 | 0.585 | 0-3 PICK |
How ELOFACE predicts
ELO + training activity
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOFACE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOFACE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOFACE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOFACE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.