MAJOR — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
MAJOR · Rank + H2H + Form for major events
🎯 MAJOR's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using MAJOR's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
1-3
HLTV #16
💀 0-3
BIG
3-2
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
B8
3-0
HLTV #20
⚡ 2
Liquid
2-3
HLTV #18
⚡ 3
TYLOO
✓ 3-2
HLTV #21
⚡ 4
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
1-3
unranked
⚡ 5
SINNERS
0-3
HLTV #27
⚡ 6
GamerLegion
✓ 3-1
HLTV #22
⚡ 7
BetBoom
3-0
HLTV #28
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by MAJOR's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.219 | 0.490 | 0.055 | 0.292 | 3-0 PICK |
|
B8
#20
|
0.193 | 0.453 | 0.067 | 0.354 | ADVANCE |
|
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.184 | 0.421 | 0.070 | 0.395 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.176 | 0.443 | 0.078 | 0.381 | ADVANCE |
|
Liquid
#18
|
0.164 | 0.449 | 0.083 | 0.387 | ADVANCE |
|
SINNERS
#27
|
0.146 | 0.416 | 0.095 | 0.438 | ADVANCE |
Sharks
|
0.127 | 0.380 | 0.108 | 0.493 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.122 | 0.405 | 0.113 | 0.473 | ADVANCE |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.116 | 0.394 | 0.120 | 0.491 | ADVANCE |
NRG
#25
|
0.100 | 0.375 | 0.142 | 0.525 | — |
Lynn Vision
|
0.090 | 0.305 | 0.150 | 0.604 | — |
MIBR
|
0.088 | 0.327 | 0.156 | 0.585 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.077 | 0.315 | 0.176 | 0.608 | — |
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.072 | 0.278 | 0.176 | 0.651 | — |
M80
|
0.065 | 0.276 | 0.203 | 0.659 | — |
|
BIG
|
0.062 | 0.274 | 0.208 | 0.664 | 0-3 PICK |
How MAJOR predicts
Rank + H2H + Form for major events
For the Pickem Challenge, MAJOR ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by MAJOR's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, MAJOR ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by MAJOR's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.