TRIBUNAL — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
TRIBUNAL · OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction
🎯 TRIBUNAL's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TRIBUNAL's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Liquid
HLTV #18
⚡ 2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
⚡ 3
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
⚡ 4
FlyQuest
unranked
⚡ 5
BIG
unranked
⚡ 6
M80
unranked
⚡ 7
Lynn Vision
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by TRIBUNAL's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.196 | 0.456 | 0.070 | 0.348 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Liquid
#18
|
0.194 | 0.423 | 0.072 | 0.383 | ADVANCE |
|
M80
|
0.141 | 0.390 | 0.105 | 0.469 | ADVANCE |
|
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.136 | 0.403 | 0.109 | 0.460 | ADVANCE |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.136 | 0.402 | 0.096 | 0.462 | ADVANCE |
|
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.131 | 0.408 | 0.112 | 0.461 | ADVANCE |
Sharks
|
0.131 | 0.382 | 0.118 | 0.488 | — |
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.131 | 0.368 | 0.115 | 0.501 | — |
MIBR
|
0.124 | 0.383 | 0.122 | 0.493 | — |
|
BIG
|
0.123 | 0.390 | 0.120 | 0.487 | ADVANCE |
|
Lynn Vision
|
0.119 | 0.386 | 0.119 | 0.494 | ADVANCE |
TYLOO
#21
|
0.108 | 0.365 | 0.134 | 0.527 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.100 | 0.335 | 0.156 | 0.565 | — |
NRG
#25
|
0.093 | 0.359 | 0.149 | 0.548 | — |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.078 | 0.283 | 0.192 | 0.639 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.060 | 0.266 | 0.211 | 0.674 | 0-3 PICK |
How TRIBUNAL predicts
OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, TRIBUNAL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TRIBUNAL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, TRIBUNAL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TRIBUNAL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.