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TRIBUNAL — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

TRIBUNAL · OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

🎯 TRIBUNAL's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TRIBUNAL's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
2% confidence
💀 0-3
BetBoom
HLTV #28
2% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
Liquid
HLTV #18
4% advance
⚡ 2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 3
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 4
FlyQuest
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 5
BIG
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 6
M80
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 7
Lynn Vision
unranked
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by TRIBUNAL's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
HEROIC #16 0.196 0.456 0.070 0.348 3-0 PICK
Liquid #18 0.194 0.423 0.072 0.383 ADVANCE
M80 0.141 0.390 0.105 0.469 ADVANCE
Gaimin Gladiators 0.136 0.403 0.109 0.460 ADVANCE
FlyQuest 0.136 0.402 0.096 0.462 ADVANCE
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.131 0.408 0.112 0.461 ADVANCE
Sharks 0.131 0.382 0.118 0.488
GamerLegion #22 0.131 0.368 0.115 0.501
MIBR 0.124 0.383 0.122 0.493
BIG 0.123 0.390 0.120 0.487 ADVANCE
Lynn Vision 0.119 0.386 0.119 0.494 ADVANCE
TYLOO #21 0.108 0.365 0.134 0.527
B8 #20 0.100 0.335 0.156 0.565
NRG #25 0.093 0.359 0.149 0.548
SINNERS #27 0.078 0.283 0.192 0.639
BetBoom #28 0.060 0.266 0.211 0.674 0-3 PICK

How TRIBUNAL predicts

OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

For the Pickem Challenge, TRIBUNAL ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TRIBUNAL's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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