WR10 — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
WR10 · Rank + H2H + win rate vs top-10
🎯 WR10's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using WR10's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
💀 0-3
M80
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 2
BetBoom
HLTV #28
⚡ 3
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 4
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 5
Liquid
HLTV #18
⚡ 6
Sharks
unranked
⚡ 7
MIBR
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by WR10's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.194 | 0.451 | 0.070 | 0.355 | 3-0 PICK |
|
B8
#20
|
0.172 | 0.441 | 0.079 | 0.387 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.165 | 0.424 | 0.089 | 0.411 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.153 | 0.421 | 0.094 | 0.425 | ADVANCE |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.151 | 0.433 | 0.094 | 0.417 | ADVANCE |
|
Sharks
|
0.139 | 0.387 | 0.105 | 0.474 | ADVANCE |
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.126 | 0.369 | 0.118 | 0.505 | — |
|
Liquid
#18
|
0.124 | 0.393 | 0.121 | 0.483 | ADVANCE |
|
MIBR
|
0.118 | 0.380 | 0.128 | 0.502 | ADVANCE |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.112 | 0.370 | 0.129 | 0.517 | — |
Lynn Vision
|
0.111 | 0.357 | 0.131 | 0.533 | — |
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.106 | 0.337 | 0.143 | 0.557 | — |
BIG
|
0.092 | 0.331 | 0.157 | 0.577 | — |
NRG
#25
|
0.082 | 0.319 | 0.173 | 0.599 | — |
FlyQuest
|
0.079 | 0.311 | 0.175 | 0.610 | — |
|
M80
|
0.075 | 0.277 | 0.196 | 0.648 | 0-3 PICK |
How WR10 predicts
Rank + H2H + win rate vs top-10
For the Pickem Challenge, WR10 ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by WR10's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, WR10 ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by WR10's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.