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OPEN — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

OPEN · Rank + form + head-to-head

🎯 OPEN's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using OPEN's match-level priors

🏆 3-0

GamerLegion

HLTV #22

2% confidence

💀 0-3

BIG

unranked

2% confidence

⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks

⚡ 1

HEROIC

HLTV #16

5% advance

⚡ 2

THUNDER dOWNUNDER

unranked

5% advance

⚡ 3

Liquid

HLTV #18

4% advance

⚡ 4

SINNERS

HLTV #27

4% advance

⚡ 5

TYLOO

HLTV #21

4% advance

⚡ 6

Sharks

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 7

NRG

HLTV #25

4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by OPEN's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.

Team	P(3-0)	P(Advance)	P(0-3)	P(Eliminate)	Picked as
GamerLegion #22	0.236	0.492	0.050	0.272	3-0 PICK
HEROIC #16	0.190	0.463	0.074	0.348	ADVANCE
THUNDER dOWNUNDER	0.186	0.457	0.066	0.357	ADVANCE
Liquid #18	0.149	0.413	0.094	0.439	ADVANCE
TYLOO #21	0.145	0.408	0.100	0.447	ADVANCE
Sharks	0.145	0.400	0.099	0.455	ADVANCE
B8 #20	0.127	0.356	0.115	0.517	—
NRG #25	0.111	0.394	0.124	0.495	ADVANCE
SINNERS #27	0.111	0.408	0.126	0.481	ADVANCE
Lynn Vision	0.095	0.319	0.146	0.587	—
FlyQuest	0.094	0.360	0.150	0.546	—
BetBoom #28	0.093	0.341	0.149	0.566	—
MIBR	0.085	0.316	0.165	0.599	—
Gaimin Gladiators	0.083	0.290	0.166	0.627	—
M80	0.080	0.299	0.176	0.622	—
BIG	0.070	0.286	0.200	0.643	0-3 PICK

How OPEN predicts

Rank + form + head-to-head

For the Pickem Challenge, OPEN ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by OPEN's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.