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Match Prediction Engine

OPEN — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

OPEN · Rank + form + head-to-head

🎯 OPEN's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using OPEN's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
2% confidence
💀 0-3
BIG
unranked
2% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
HEROIC
HLTV #16
5% advance
⚡ 2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
5% advance
⚡ 3
Liquid
HLTV #18
4% advance
⚡ 4
SINNERS
HLTV #27
4% advance
⚡ 5
TYLOO
HLTV #21
4% advance
⚡ 6
Sharks
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 7
NRG
HLTV #25
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by OPEN's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
GamerLegion #22 0.236 0.492 0.050 0.272 3-0 PICK
HEROIC #16 0.190 0.463 0.074 0.348 ADVANCE
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.186 0.457 0.066 0.357 ADVANCE
Liquid #18 0.149 0.413 0.094 0.439 ADVANCE
TYLOO #21 0.145 0.408 0.100 0.447 ADVANCE
Sharks 0.145 0.400 0.099 0.455 ADVANCE
B8 #20 0.127 0.356 0.115 0.517
NRG #25 0.111 0.394 0.124 0.495 ADVANCE
SINNERS #27 0.111 0.408 0.126 0.481 ADVANCE
Lynn Vision 0.095 0.319 0.146 0.587
FlyQuest 0.094 0.360 0.150 0.546
BetBoom #28 0.093 0.341 0.149 0.566
MIBR 0.085 0.316 0.165 0.599
Gaimin Gladiators 0.083 0.290 0.166 0.627
M80 0.080 0.299 0.176 0.622
BIG 0.070 0.286 0.200 0.643 0-3 PICK

How OPEN predicts

Rank + form + head-to-head

For the Pickem Challenge, OPEN ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by OPEN's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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