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TIER3ELO — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

TIER3 · Top-teams ELO v3

🎯 TIER3ELO's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using TIER3ELO's match-level priors

🏆 3-0

GamerLegion

HLTV #22

1% confidence

💀 0-3

MIBR

unranked

1% confidence

⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks

⚡ 1

FlyQuest

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 2

THUNDER dOWNUNDER

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 3

Lynn Vision

unranked

4% advance

⚡ 4

NRG

HLTV #25

4% advance

⚡ 5

TYLOO

HLTV #21

4% advance

⚡ 6

HEROIC

HLTV #16

4% advance

⚡ 7

BIG

unranked

4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by TIER3ELO's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.

Team	P(3-0)	P(Advance)	P(0-3)	P(Eliminate)	Picked as
GamerLegion #22	0.129	0.372	0.126	0.498	3-0 PICK
Lynn Vision	0.129	0.382	0.124	0.489	ADVANCE
NRG #25	0.129	0.381	0.123	0.491	ADVANCE
HEROIC #16	0.128	0.377	0.119	0.495	ADVANCE
B8 #20	0.128	0.373	0.127	0.499	—
TYLOO #21	0.128	0.379	0.123	0.494	ADVANCE
THUNDER dOWNUNDER	0.128	0.384	0.118	0.489	ADVANCE
BetBoom #28	0.126	0.372	0.126	0.503	—
Sharks	0.125	0.376	0.121	0.499	—
MIBR	0.125	0.364	0.135	0.512	0-3 PICK
FlyQuest	0.124	0.384	0.122	0.493	ADVANCE
SINNERS #27	0.123	0.374	0.126	0.502	—
BIG	0.121	0.377	0.123	0.502	ADVANCE
Gaimin Gladiators	0.121	0.372	0.129	0.508	—
M80	0.119	0.367	0.131	0.514	—
Liquid #18	0.117	0.368	0.128	0.515	—

How TIER3ELO predicts

Top-teams ELO v3

For the Pickem Challenge, TIER3ELO ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by TIER3ELO's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.