SQUAD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
SQUAD · Player ratings
🎯 SQUAD's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using SQUAD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
💀 0-3
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
FlyQuest
unranked
⚡ 2
GamerLegion
HLTV #22
⚡ 3
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
⚡ 4
Sharks
unranked
⚡ 5
M80
unranked
⚡ 6
NRG
HLTV #25
⚡ 7
TYLOO
HLTV #21
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by SQUAD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.336 | 0.548 | 0.012 | 0.116 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.309 | 0.516 | 0.014 | 0.175 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.243 | 0.535 | 0.027 | 0.222 | ADVANCE |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.219 | 0.587 | 0.020 | 0.195 | ADVANCE |
|
Sharks
|
0.195 | 0.499 | 0.037 | 0.305 | ADVANCE |
|
M80
|
0.194 | 0.486 | 0.033 | 0.319 | ADVANCE |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.098 | 0.425 | 0.079 | 0.478 | ADVANCE |
HEROIC
#16
|
0.081 | 0.352 | 0.105 | 0.568 | — |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.071 | 0.387 | 0.115 | 0.542 | ADVANCE |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.058 | 0.257 | 0.136 | 0.685 | — |
Liquid
#18
|
0.051 | 0.294 | 0.142 | 0.655 | — |
BIG
|
0.050 | 0.337 | 0.148 | 0.613 | — |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.041 | 0.374 | 0.137 | 0.585 | — |
MIBR
|
0.031 | 0.209 | 0.226 | 0.760 | — |
Lynn Vision
|
0.015 | 0.124 | 0.349 | 0.861 | — |
|
B8
#20
|
0.008 | 0.070 | 0.418 | 0.922 | 0-3 PICK |
How SQUAD predicts
Player ratings
For the Pickem Challenge, SQUAD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SQUAD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, SQUAD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by SQUAD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.