STRONGHOLD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
STRONGHOLD · ELO + SOS both >60% same direction
🎯 STRONGHOLD's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using STRONGHOLD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
💀 0-3
M80
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
NRG
HLTV #25
⚡ 2
Liquid
HLTV #18
⚡ 3
TYLOO
HLTV #21
⚡ 4
FlyQuest
unranked
⚡ 5
B8
HLTV #20
⚡ 6
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
⚡ 7
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by STRONGHOLD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.266 | 0.541 | 0.032 | 0.193 | 3-0 PICK |
|
B8
#20
|
0.213 | 0.439 | 0.049 | 0.348 | ADVANCE |
|
Liquid
#18
|
0.210 | 0.470 | 0.043 | 0.320 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.169 | 0.461 | 0.066 | 0.371 | ADVANCE |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.164 | 0.535 | 0.054 | 0.301 | ADVANCE |
Sharks
|
0.152 | 0.418 | 0.061 | 0.430 | — |
BIG
|
0.124 | 0.396 | 0.094 | 0.480 | — |
|
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.124 | 0.435 | 0.079 | 0.441 | ADVANCE |
|
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.123 | 0.434 | 0.083 | 0.443 | ADVANCE |
Lynn Vision
|
0.117 | 0.376 | 0.103 | 0.507 | — |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.112 | 0.446 | 0.082 | 0.442 | ADVANCE |
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.085 | 0.286 | 0.151 | 0.629 | — |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.076 | 0.321 | 0.135 | 0.604 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.027 | 0.167 | 0.299 | 0.806 | — |
MIBR
|
0.026 | 0.163 | 0.288 | 0.811 | — |
|
M80
|
0.014 | 0.111 | 0.382 | 0.875 | 0-3 PICK |
How STRONGHOLD predicts
ELO + SOS both >60% same direction
For the Pickem Challenge, STRONGHOLD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by STRONGHOLD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, STRONGHOLD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by STRONGHOLD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.