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STRONGHOLD — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks

STRONGHOLD · ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

🎯 STRONGHOLD's Pickem Picks

From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using STRONGHOLD's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
HEROIC
HLTV #16
3% confidence
💀 0-3
M80
unranked
4% confidence
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
NRG
HLTV #25
5% advance
⚡ 2
Liquid
HLTV #18
5% advance
⚡ 3
TYLOO
HLTV #21
5% advance
⚡ 4
FlyQuest
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 5
B8
HLTV #20
4% advance
⚡ 6
Gaimin Gladiators
unranked
4% advance
⚡ 7
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
unranked
4% advance

📊 Full Probability Matrix

All 16 teams ranked by STRONGHOLD's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
Team P(3-0) P(Advance) P(0-3) P(Eliminate) Picked as
HEROIC #16 0.266 0.541 0.032 0.193 3-0 PICK
B8 #20 0.213 0.439 0.049 0.348 ADVANCE
Liquid #18 0.210 0.470 0.043 0.320 ADVANCE
TYLOO #21 0.169 0.461 0.066 0.371 ADVANCE
NRG #25 0.164 0.535 0.054 0.301 ADVANCE
Sharks 0.152 0.418 0.061 0.430
BIG 0.124 0.396 0.094 0.480
Gaimin Gladiators 0.124 0.435 0.079 0.441 ADVANCE
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.123 0.434 0.083 0.443 ADVANCE
Lynn Vision 0.117 0.376 0.103 0.507
FlyQuest 0.112 0.446 0.082 0.442 ADVANCE
GamerLegion #22 0.085 0.286 0.151 0.629
SINNERS #27 0.076 0.321 0.135 0.604
BetBoom #28 0.027 0.167 0.299 0.806
MIBR 0.026 0.163 0.288 0.811
M80 0.014 0.111 0.382 0.875 0-3 PICK

How STRONGHOLD predicts

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

For the Pickem Challenge, STRONGHOLD ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by STRONGHOLD's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.

🔀 Compare other models

26 other AI models also picked this event — click to see their breakdown.
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