ELOHQ — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
ELOHQ · High-confidence ELO
🎯 ELOHQ's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELOHQ's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Lynn Vision
2-3
unranked
💀 0-3
M80
3-1
unranked
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
HEROIC
1-3
HLTV #16
⚡ 2
TYLOO
✓ 3-2
HLTV #21
⚡ 3
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
1-3
unranked
⚡ 4
NRG
2-3
HLTV #25
⚡ 5
B8
3-0
HLTV #20
⚡ 6
GamerLegion
✓ 3-1
HLTV #22
⚡ 7
Sharks
1-3
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ELOHQ's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lynn Vision
|
0.139 | 0.388 | 0.113 | 0.473 | 3-0 PICK |
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.136 | 0.406 | 0.112 | 0.458 | ADVANCE |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.131 | 0.378 | 0.120 | 0.491 | ADVANCE |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.131 | 0.391 | 0.116 | 0.478 | ADVANCE |
|
NRG
#25
|
0.129 | 0.386 | 0.121 | 0.485 | ADVANCE |
SINNERS
#27
|
0.129 | 0.371 | 0.121 | 0.501 | — |
|
B8
#20
|
0.127 | 0.383 | 0.117 | 0.490 | ADVANCE |
BIG
|
0.125 | 0.373 | 0.129 | 0.502 | — |
|
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.125 | 0.390 | 0.116 | 0.485 | ADVANCE |
|
Sharks
|
0.124 | 0.377 | 0.118 | 0.499 | ADVANCE |
FlyQuest
|
0.124 | 0.375 | 0.123 | 0.501 | — |
MIBR
|
0.120 | 0.352 | 0.136 | 0.528 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.120 | 0.358 | 0.134 | 0.522 | — |
Liquid
#18
|
0.116 | 0.354 | 0.136 | 0.530 | — |
|
M80
|
0.116 | 0.359 | 0.145 | 0.526 | 0-3 PICK |
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.109 | 0.359 | 0.143 | 0.531 | — |
How ELOHQ predicts
High-confidence ELO
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOHQ ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOHQ's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOHQ ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOHQ's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.