ORACLE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Pickem Picks
ORACLE · ELO + ELOHQ + Form + Tilt + SOS
🎯 ORACLE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ORACLE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Lynn Vision
2-3
unranked
💀 0-3
GamerLegion
3-1
HLTV #22
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
FlyQuest
✓ 3-2
unranked
⚡ 2
TYLOO
✓ 3-2
HLTV #21
⚡ 3
HEROIC
1-3
HLTV #16
⚡ 4
BIG
✓ 3-2
unranked
⚡ 5
B8
3-0
HLTV #20
⚡ 6
SINNERS
0-3
HLTV #27
⚡ 7
M80
✓ 3-1
unranked
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ORACLE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lynn Vision
|
0.301 | 0.498 | 0.027 | 0.201 | 3-0 PICK |
|
TYLOO
#21
|
0.191 | 0.517 | 0.052 | 0.292 | ADVANCE |
|
BIG
|
0.188 | 0.460 | 0.052 | 0.352 | ADVANCE |
|
SINNERS
#27
|
0.181 | 0.440 | 0.047 | 0.379 | ADVANCE |
|
FlyQuest
|
0.174 | 0.519 | 0.043 | 0.306 | ADVANCE |
|
HEROIC
#16
|
0.170 | 0.466 | 0.064 | 0.364 | ADVANCE |
|
B8
#20
|
0.139 | 0.452 | 0.080 | 0.409 | ADVANCE |
Sharks
|
0.138 | 0.408 | 0.077 | 0.454 | — |
|
M80
|
0.122 | 0.424 | 0.099 | 0.454 | ADVANCE |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.120 | 0.383 | 0.102 | 0.497 | — |
NRG
#25
|
0.095 | 0.385 | 0.114 | 0.520 | — |
Liquid
#18
|
0.052 | 0.244 | 0.201 | 0.704 | — |
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
|
0.048 | 0.261 | 0.169 | 0.691 | — |
Gaimin Gladiators
|
0.039 | 0.265 | 0.197 | 0.696 | — |
MIBR
|
0.030 | 0.182 | 0.283 | 0.788 | — |
|
GamerLegion
#22
|
0.012 | 0.097 | 0.393 | 0.891 | 0-3 PICK |
How ORACLE predicts
ELO + ELOHQ + Form + Tilt + SOS
For the Pickem Challenge, ORACLE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ORACLE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ORACLE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ORACLE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.