APEX — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
APEX · ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)
🎯 APEX's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using APEX's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
FUT
2-3
HLTV #13
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 2
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 3
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 4
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 5
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 6
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
⚡ 7
9z
✓ 3-2
HLTV #17
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by APEX's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.224 | 0.478 | 0.061 | 0.298 | 3-0 PICK |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.185 | 0.505 | 0.066 | 0.310 | ADVANCE |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.179 | 0.445 | 0.076 | 0.376 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.162 | 0.463 | 0.082 | 0.376 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.156 | 0.410 | 0.089 | 0.434 | ADVANCE |
|
9z
#17
|
0.147 | 0.389 | 0.097 | 0.464 | ADVANCE |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.140 | 0.394 | 0.108 | 0.466 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.131 | 0.408 | 0.111 | 0.462 | ADVANCE |
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.110 | 0.359 | 0.120 | 0.531 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.098 | 0.354 | 0.142 | 0.548 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.090 | 0.358 | 0.149 | 0.552 | — |
BetBoom
#28
|
0.089 | 0.300 | 0.158 | 0.611 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.082 | 0.293 | 0.175 | 0.625 | — |
Legacy
#14
|
0.079 | 0.323 | 0.171 | 0.598 | — |
Aurora
#7
|
0.067 | 0.254 | 0.193 | 0.679 | — |
|
FUT
#13
|
0.062 | 0.268 | 0.203 | 0.670 | 0-3 PICK |
How APEX predicts
ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)
For the Pickem Challenge, APEX ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by APEX's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, APEX ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by APEX's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.