ELOFACE — IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 3 Pickem Picks
ELOFACE · ELO + training activity
🎯 ELOFACE's Pickem Picks
From 10,000 Monte Carlo Swiss simulations using ELOFACE's match-level priors
🏆 3-0
Vitality
3-1
HLTV #1
💀 0-3
BetBoom
3-2
HLTV #28
⚡ Advance (3-1 or 3-2) — 7 picks
⚡ 1
The MongolZ
2-3
HLTV #8
⚡ 2
MOUZ
1-3
HLTV #6
⚡ 3
Falcons
✓ 3-1
HLTV #4
⚡ 4
Spirit
3-0
HLTV #9
⚡ 5
Natus Vincere
2-3
HLTV #3
⚡ 6
PARIVISION
0-3
HLTV #5
⚡ 7
FURIA
3-0
HLTV #2
📊 Full Probability Matrix
All 16 teams ranked by ELOFACE's perfect-Swiss probability. Each row shows how often the team finished in that bucket across 10,000 simulations.
| Team | P(3-0) | P(Advance) | P(0-3) | P(Eliminate) | Picked as |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Vitality
#1
|
0.365 | 0.501 | 0.020 | 0.134 | 3-0 PICK |
|
Falcons
#4
|
0.201 | 0.460 | 0.060 | 0.339 | ADVANCE |
|
Spirit
#9
|
0.163 | 0.441 | 0.084 | 0.397 | ADVANCE |
|
MOUZ
#6
|
0.156 | 0.473 | 0.084 | 0.371 | ADVANCE |
|
The MongolZ
#8
|
0.141 | 0.474 | 0.074 | 0.385 | ADVANCE |
Aurora
#7
|
0.134 | 0.377 | 0.090 | 0.489 | — |
|
Natus Vincere
#3
|
0.130 | 0.397 | 0.099 | 0.473 | ADVANCE |
|
PARIVISION
#5
|
0.112 | 0.393 | 0.098 | 0.495 | ADVANCE |
Legacy
#14
|
0.103 | 0.353 | 0.145 | 0.544 | — |
|
FURIA
#2
|
0.095 | 0.383 | 0.133 | 0.522 | ADVANCE |
FUT
#13
|
0.079 | 0.292 | 0.159 | 0.629 | — |
9z
#17
|
0.078 | 0.290 | 0.170 | 0.632 | — |
Monte
#23
|
0.074 | 0.321 | 0.160 | 0.605 | — |
G2
#12
|
0.069 | 0.351 | 0.172 | 0.581 | — |
B8
#20
|
0.054 | 0.261 | 0.215 | 0.685 | — |
|
BetBoom
#28
|
0.047 | 0.234 | 0.237 | 0.720 | 0-3 PICK |
How ELOFACE predicts
ELO + training activity
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOFACE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOFACE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.
For the Pickem Challenge, ELOFACE ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 16-team Swiss bracket. In each simulation, every pairing is decided by flipping a biased coin weighted by ELOFACE's match-level win probability between those two teams. After all simulations, each team's P(3-0) = fraction of simulations it finished without a loss, P(0-3) = fraction it finished winless, P(Advance) = fraction it finished 3-1 or 3-2. The picks above are the top-1 of each bucket.